Playoffs: 7-3
Regular season: 172-97-2
#2 SF (15-4) @ #1 PHI (15-3)
Sunday, January 29 | 3:00 PM ET | FOX
Quite a bit has changed since the 49ers and Eagles played in Week 2 of last season (a 17-11 victory for San Francisco), but I’m interested in the similarities of the previous matchup. Most notably, Nick Bosa was able to record 2.0 sacks and a forced fumble versus the dominant offensive tackle duo of Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson, so that’s an area where a strength for the Eagles may be a “check” in favor of the Niners on the tale of the tape—which I think will need to be the case (i.e. Bosa making impact plays) for them to exit Lincoln Financial Field with a victory. In that same 2021 meeting, though, Jalen Hurts was able to rush ten times for 82 yards and a touchdown on DeMeco Ryans’ defense, and that was when Philly didn’t operate close to the level that they’re currently playing at with Hurts turning into an NFL MVP candidate (I think he should win). Also, it feels like A.J. Brown might be primed for a monster game after torching San Francisco with an 11/145/1 line late last season in Tennessee, and the Eagles have the benefit of not only homefield advantage, but also an earlier kickoff with the eastward-bound 49ers. Although the top-tier weapons in Kyle Shanahan’s offense and Brock Purdy’s magic could get San Francisco back to the Super Bowl, this is the rare spot where their opponent probably has the more talented roster, and Hurts has shown that no moment or situation will phase him.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
#3 CIN (14-4) @ #1 KC (15-3)
Sunday, January 29 | 6:30 PM ET | CBS
The offensive line for the Bengals turned out to be almost a non-issue last week in the decisive win over the Bills, but did that say more about the effectiveness of Cincinnati’s pass protection or Buffalo’s lack of a pass rush? We’ll certainly find out in the AFC Championship with the Kansas City defensive line always taking over late in the season, and they are also very opportunistic at all three levels. Of course, confidence is something I always mention, and there no one in football more confident right now than Joe Burrow—who knows he can beat Patrick Mahomes (3-0 record) and will benefit from the balance Joe Mixon brings to the offense. On the other side of the ball, all eyes will be on the mobility of Mahomes with a high-ankle sprain, but he threw for 443 yards and four touchdowns just a week after suffering the same injury back in 2019, and Andy Reid surely has a good idea of how to structure a game plan around it; I’d anticipate a heavy dose of Kadarius Toney (season-high seven targets on just 20 snaps last week), and Isiah Pacheco is an angry runner that won’t be fun to bring down with temperatures in the low 20s. For the Cincinnati defense, Lou Anarumo is a defensive mastermind that knows they can’t let Travis Kelce beat them, and the play of rookie cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt has made up for the loss of Chidobe Awuzie (knee) on the outside. In a true toss up with the line changing multiple times and perhaps settling on a “pick ‘em,” I’m going with Kansas City to finally get past the Bengals thanks to the defensive front creating pressure versus Burrow.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs