2025 NFL preseason action gets fully underway this week, and we’re diving into summer NFL win totals we have a close eye on. This is a bit of a training camp slanted edition, and things might change before kickoff on September 4—but these picks stand out.
Detroit Lions OVER 10.5 Wins (+115)
The loss of both offensive (Ben Johnson) and defensive (Aaron Glenn) coordinators is probably baked into this 10.5 win total. However, the Lions have the infrastructure to keep rolling with a loaded roster under Dan Campbell. The Bears should be better, but expect the Lions to get up for both those games versus their former OC—and they might just run the NFC North now after a 6-0 record in the division in 2024. Detroit—which now has a healthy Aidan Hutchinson, who reportedly looks like a monster during camp—has clearly built one of the best squads in the NFL, and they’re on a mission.
Philadelphia Eagles OVER 11.5 Wins (+110)
I love the mindset the Eagles have taken as the defending Super Bowl champions. It starts with the quarterback, as Jalen Hurts didn’t even put on his Super Bowl LIX ring—he and his teammates have made it clear they are on to 2025. With a truly elite offensive line protecting Hurts and paving the way for running back Saquon Barkley, and with Vic Fangio still coordinating the defense, Philly will be favored most games. The concern, which plays into this 11.5 number, is facing the NFC North, AFC West, the Bills, and the first-place NFC schedule. But handling life as the hunted doesn’t sound like it’ll be a problem for the Eagles.
Kansas City Chiefs OVER 11.5 Wins (+110)
The Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes combination has won 12+ games in six of their seven seasons together, and there might now be a little less pressure than the three-peat quest last season (when they went 15-2 anyway). Last season was actually the worst point differential (+59) for Kansas City under Reid, but this is a team that knows how to win games. I think the Chargers and Broncos can push KC in the AFC West, but things sound great for the defending AFC champions during camp—with a healthier skill group and first-round pick Josh Simmons looking like a steal at left tackle.
Baltimore Ravens OVER 11.5 Wins (-130)
Aside from the divisional matchups in the stingy AFC North, most of the most challenging games for the Ravens come early—with battles against the Bills, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, and Rams coming within the first six weeks of the regular season. Aside from Buffalo and KC (both on the road), Baltimore might be favored in every game this season and has the upside to run the table down the stretch (not that facing the Bengals and Steelers will be easy). The current Super Bowl favorites must stay healthy—if they do, the offense might be too unstoppable not to win 12+ games for the third straight year.
New Orleans Saints UNDER 5.5 Wins (-165)
This is one you could potentially push lower (e.g., Under 3.5 Wins is +200) with so much uncertainty in New Orleans at quarterback paired with a first-year head coach in Kellen Moore. There are proud veterans there, but the defense lost safety Tyrann Mathieu to a surprise retirement. Looking at the schedule, where do you see the wins? In the NFL, anything can happen, but the Giants, Patriots, and Jets at home (as well as the Titans on the road in Week 17) look like the best non-divisional opportunities, but the Saints might end up as underdogs in every game this year. Last season, the Saints started 2-0 behind a red-hot offense led by quarterback Derek Carr (since retired), and they went 3-12 the rest of the way.
Minnesota Vikings UNDER 8.5 Wins (+125)
There is said to be some growing pains for first-year starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy, last year’s first-round pick who essentially red-shirted as a rookie while recovering from a preseason knee injury. Kevin O’Connell at the controls offensively in arguably the best situation in the league for a quarterback—plus Brian Flores’ defense being able to make game-changing plays—helps, but the schedule looks like a major challenge for Minnesota. NFC North matchups aside, the Vikings also play the AFC North (so Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincy among them), the Eagles, Commanders, Cowboys, Chargers, Falcons, and Seahawks. The margins are thin in the NFL, and the Minnesota profiles as more uncertain weeks away from kickoff.