Season: 124-56-1
CHI (8-3) @ PHI (8-3)
Friday, November 28 | 3:00 PM ET | Prime Video
The 2-10 Raiders made it a fight versus Kansas City last year, but the first two Black Friday games weren’t exactly headlining matchups (the 2023 game was memorable for the Hail Mary attempt by the Jets that the Dolphins turned into a pick-six at the end of the first half)—so Bears-Eagles finally gives us a battle between two contenders on the holiday. Chicago getting major reinforcements with cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson (groin) and Kyler Gordon (calf) comes just in time with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both being tough covers for Dallas last week, but I’d be worried about the run defense with four top linebackers in T.J. Edwards (hand/hamstring), Tremaine Edmunds (groin), Noah Sewell (elbow), and Ruben Hyppolite II (shoulder) out; Saquon Barkley has been far too quiet, so the Bears could have trouble if the backups don’t fill correctly versus the run. On offense, the Bears having a balanced, spread-the-wealth attack will make it difficult for Vic Fangio to zero in on a particular player, and for as good as Quinyon Mitchell has been, his play at the end of games has been concerning dating back to his rookie campaign. Still, I like Philadelphia winning with a “blackout” on Black Friday to get back on track after last week’s collapse in Dallas.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
LAR (9-2) @ CAR (6-6)
Sunday, November 30 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Rams are rolling as the top current seed in the NFC, and they are seemingly unstoppable in scoring territory with Davante Adams easily leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns (12). Jaycee Horn (concussion) being out for Carolina won’t make it any easier to stop Adams on the perimeter, but I think this weekend could be a monster game for Puka Nacua versus the heavy zone looks from the Panthers—as we know Sean McVay will adjust his attack when needed. Carolina seems much less certain about who they are with Rico Dowdle getting just six carries last Monday night in the loss (which was a close game) to San Francisco, so it’ll be interesting to see if all the talk of Dowdle getting fed this week leads to him facing stacked boxes all afternoon simply because Los Angeles knows what’s coming. Either way, I doubt a banged-up Panthers defense will be able to slow down Matthew Stafford, so the Rams should get to double-digit wins before December.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
SF (8-4) @ CLE (3-8)
Sunday, November 30 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Browns picked up the win in Shedeur Sanders’ first career start last week, and while the numbers were nothing to write home about (11-of-21 for 209 yards, one touchdown, and one interception), the offense operated better with the downfield aggressiveness adding another element to the attack. I also liked how Cleveland emphasized the wildcat more with Quinshon Judkins (two touchdowns last week), and it’ll be exciting to watch the 49ers try to match the rookie runner’s physicality on Sunday. The primary flaw for Sanders dating back to his time in college was holding onto the ball too long, but San Francisco’s struggles getting after the quarterback could alleviate those concerns—and I’d count on Cleveland’s offensive line matching the physicality for the Niners as well. Another factor is snow in the forecast, so Brock Purdy being unable to bounce back from the three-interception performance in the first half last week would obviously put San Francisco on extreme upset alert.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers
HOU (6-5) @ IND (8-3)
Sunday, November 30 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Daniel Jones playing through a fractured fibula speaks to his toughness, and it’s been one of the best aspects about his game since he was at Duke—where he absorbed plenty of shots to make big-time throws from the pocket. The talent has shined again with Indianapolis (in a situation where he received the support that he didn’t for the most part in New York), but Houston will be a huge challenge as an elite defense with their sights set on the AFC South (and two games to go versus the Colts). One of the best individual matchups of the weekend will be Nico Collins versus Sauce Gardner, as the only other meeting between the two came a couple of years ago when Collins left after just three snaps, and both have discussed their head-to-head matchup leading up to Sunday. The other storyline for what should be an intense divisional clash is how C.J. Stroud (concussion) looks in his return after Davis Mills led the team to three wins in a row—but this game will likely be won or lost based on whether the Houston defense can stop Jonathan Taylor (120.5 rushing yards per game and nine rushing touchdowns in eight career meetings).
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
NO (2-9) @ MIA (4-7)
Sunday, November 30 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
As stated before the Dolphins picked up an overtime victory over the Commanders in Spain, Mike McDaniel’s squad is very much “in the hunt” with winnable games versus the Saints and Jets coming out of the bye—and they’ll eventually get Darren Waller (pectoral) back as a difference-maker to pair with De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle. For now, we should see plenty of Achane (27.0 touches per game and 195.0 total yards per game during the mini two-game winning streak), and New Orleans notably just allowed a gain of 30+ yards to Bijan Robinson both as a runner and receiver in last week’s loss; if they aren’t prepared for Achane in space, it could be a long day for the Saints. A large dosage of Taysom Hill is what the Dolphins might need to be ready for with Alvin Kamara (knee) out, but the run defense should get some credit for their improvements over the past month. If Tua Tagovailoa takes care of the ball, Miami should like their chances at home.
Winner: Miami Dolphins
ATL (4-7) @ NYJ (2-9)
Sunday, November 30 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Falcons may need to pull off an upset or two versus a top opponent (Seattle next week or the Rams a few days after Christmas), but Tampa Bay falling off at least leaves the door open in the NFC South—and the two teams will meet again next month. Kirk Cousins hitting Darnell Mooney with a 49-yard deep ball for a touchdown in the win over New Orleans essentially sealed the game (especially based on how the Atlanta defense played), so maybe the confidence will be boosted for the 37-yard-old signal-caller as he runs the show the rest of the way. That said, the Falcons need to make sure they’re giving Bijan Robinson enough touches (16 last week), and New York has allowed a combined five total touchdowns to TreVeyon Henderson and Derrick Henry over the past two games. If the rookies for Atlanta play like they have on defense and Cousins plays mistake-free football, I like them to stay within striking distance in the NFC South.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
ARI (3-8) @ TB (6-5)
Sunday, November 30 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Baker Mayfield (shoulder) potentially being out this week puts the Bucs in some danger with Teddy Bridgewater not looking great off the bench last week, but perhaps a full week to prepare would lead to more success. Whether it’s Mayfield or Bridgewater under center, Tampa Bay will be happy to have Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot) back in the lineup for the first time since Week 4, and I like the three-headed monster of Irving, Sean Tucker, and Rachaad White—with all three bringing some punishment to finish runs. Arizona has suddenly morphed into a very pass-happy offense with Jacoby Brissett at the controls (50.0 pass attempts per game over the past three outings), but they are still 1-5 with the veteran as the starter this season. Maybe the return of Marvin Harrison Jr. (illness) to pair with Trey McBride and the newly featured Michael Wilson Jr. can lead to the Cardinals outdueling the Baker-less (if he’s out) Bucs, but I trust Tampa Bay to ride the running game and play solid defense.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
JAX (7-4) @ TEN (1-10)
Sunday, November 30 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Cameron Ward showing flashes in a trying season should be encouraging for Tennessee fans, and although last week never really felt like the Titans had a shot in the eventual 30-24 loss to Seattle—it was still a strong showing for the No. 1 pick. We are waiting for him to have his first multi-touchdown game through the air, but Ward took care of the ball and rushed six times for 37 yards and a score to complement the showing as a passer (on an offense that lacks proven weapons). Jacksonville is trying to get the flashes of their own quarterback to be more consistent, and it’s fair to wonder if Trevor Lawrence’s mistakes are a part of who he is at this point with 71 career games under his belt. Keep an eye on the chemistry with Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) in his return, but the Jags need to continue playing through Travis Etienne Jr.—and tight end Brenton Strange was an all-around boost for the offense last week in his first action since Week 5, including five receptions for 93 yards. Tennessee has played better recently, but Jacksonville will have the edge if they don’t turn it over.
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars
MIN (4-7) @ SEA (8-3)
Sunday, November 30 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
Sam Darnold is surely grateful for what his time with the Vikings meant in turning around his NFL career, but there’s no doubt he will be holding a bit of a grudge after they let him go for nothing following a 14-3 season. Minnesota put all their chips in on J.J. McCarthy (who won’t play this week due to a concussion), and it feels like the franchise could head in another direction in 2026—with names that they could have had like Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones already being brought up. Focusing on Sunday, the Vikings will try to save their season with an aggressive defensive effort (Brian Flores joked about Darnold being “one of his favorites” but saying they’ll “blitz him this week”), and undrafted rookie Max Brosmer will be tasked with facing a tough Seattle defense in his first career start. I do think it’s notable that Justin Jefferson talked up Brosmer by saying “he’s definitely a good QB” this week—and the offense could be opened up more with McCarthy frankly holding a talented group back with his all-fastball approach. Still, the Seahawks have plenty of weapons themselves, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba could go off again if the blitzes lead to him being singled up in coverage.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
LV (2-9) @ LAC (7-4)
Sunday, November 30 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
I ended the game pick for the Raiders last week by wondering if Chip Kelly would be scapegoated for the Raiders’ struggles, and that’s unfortunately what happened with the team firing him after the loss to Cleveland. Since then, there have been bogus reports painting Kelly as some incompetent coach, but anyone with a brain should know they are false based on Kelly’s history and how respected he is; even Pete Carroll pushed back on the criticism, and Tom Brady being the one who wanted Kelly—including apparently as a possible successor as head coach—says a lot about his football mind. The talk now is about getting the running game going and finding ways to get Ashton Jeanty the ball in space, but the former is what Kelly specialized in, and the latter was already a focus (Jeanty already has four receiving touchdowns this year). Many seem to realize the offensive line and a poor draft are the primary issues for Las Vegas, and it’s imperative they don’t let the Chargers start fast if they want to have any shot of avoiding 2-10.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
BUF (7-4) @ PIT (6-5)
Sunday, November 30 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
The Bills piecing things together on the fly is not the formula to winning a championship (or even being in contention for one), but that’s what they’ve tried doing this year—particularly at wide receiver with Brandin Cooks being the newest addition in an effort to find something that works. As has been the case for a handful of years, Josh Allen putting the team on his back and basically going nuclear is the only chance at making a run, and it’s been a lot tougher to move the ball with Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) out of the lineup. Even if Kincaid is back this week, Dion Dawkins (concussion) and Spencer Brown (shoulder) appear likely to be inactive at the worst possible time with T.J. Watt set to get after Allen—so Buffalo needs Keon Coleman suited up and making a difference to add some support on offense. Defensively, bringing down Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell in space is key for the Bills to get off the field, and Aaron Rodgers will probably be getting rid of the ball quickly as he plays through a fractured wrist. I should go with the Steelers after switching the pick a couple of times and accidentally typing “Josh Allen” when switching back to Buffalo (which says it all), but this is arguably a more important game for the road team in a competitive Wild Card race.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
DEN (9-2) @ WAS (3-8)
Sunday, November 30 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Jayden Daniels (elbow) being out and the Commanders falling off in 2025 takes some of the shine off, but it will be awesome to see Bo Nix and the Broncos get a primetime showcase opportunity on Sunday Night Football as an elite team no one is really talking about. The pass rush for Denver has been phenomenal with an NFL-best 49 sacks and NFL-low nine passing touchdowns allowed, so that’s a deadly combination with Nix proving to be one of the most clutch players in the NFL. Washington should show some fight coming off the bye, but I don’t like how their cornerbacks will match up with Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Marvin Mims Jr.—and Sean Payton having extra time to scheme things up could lead to a big night for the offense. Furthermore, the Broncos have been completely locked in as a team, and the Thanksgiving weekend might not phase them like it could other squads. Marcus Mariota getting Terry McLaurin (quad) and Noah Brown (groin/knee) back gives Washington a shot if Denver is off on offense, but I don’t think that will be the case.
Winner: Denver Broncos
NYG (2-10) @ NE (10-2)
Monday, December 1 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN
The Giants could be joined by a few teams this week, but to be the lone franchise eliminated from playoff contention before Thanksgiving has to be disheartening for fans—and the latest loss led to the firing of defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. Interestingly, Bowen has a relationship with Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel as the former DC for him in Tennessee, so I wonder if that’s something New York even considered ahead of their matchup. Maybe it was time for Bowen go, but the pass rush that general manager Joe Schoen put so many resources into hasn’t finished games—including No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter recording just a 0.5 sack so far in his career; there is still a long way to go and Carter was worth a top-five selection for us, but I wonder if Jalon Walker (5.0 sacks) was even a consideration for the Giants (he was our top edge defender in the class). On Monday night, Jaxson Dart (concussion) returning will give us an exciting battle between two young quarterbacks, and I’ll be listening for any propaganda being crafted (both during and after the game) about the Giants having talent for a turnaround similar to New England in 2026.
Winner: New England Patriots