Season: 138-69-1
ATL (4-9) @ TB (7-6)
Thursday, December 11 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
The Falcons locked up their eighth consecutive losing season last week with a loss to the Seahawks, and it would be surprising at this point if a new regime doesn’t come in for 2026—as the results need to be much better, especially with the playoff drought happening in perhaps the worst division in football. To their credit, Atlanta has continued to play hard, so we should at least get a good game on Thursday Night Football; and that’s been the case in meetings between the Falcons and Buccaneers over the past three years with every matchup decided by one possession. In the opener this season, Tampa Bay was able to overcome a blown lead with 2:17 remaining to strike back on a game-winning touchdown from 25 yards out by rookie Emeka Egbuka with under a minute remaining, and I’d expect the first-rounder to get back on track in primetime despite his recent drop in production. Notably, this will be the first time the Bucs have all three of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., and Egbuka on the field together, so I think the firepower will be too much for Kirk Cousins to match.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
CLE (3-10) @ CHI (9-4)
Sunday, December 14 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Last week was a tough one for the Bears with a chance to escape Lambeau Field with a win to keep first place in the NFC North—but they instead dropped from the No. 1 seed to the No. 7 seed in the conference. Of course, they will get a rematch next Saturday night to potentially reclaim first place in the division, and I like that Chicago is getting a third straight cold-weather game this weekend (with a wind chill nearing zero degrees) to prepare them for January. The Browns also played in the cold last week with snow hitting Cleveland, and it’s impossible to not be impressed with how Shedeur Sanders looked in his third career start by totaling 393 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-29 loss. Playing through Quinshon Judkins this week should be the priority, but when the Browns do throw, it’ll be fun to see how Sanders does versus an aggressive defense that leads the NFL in interceptions (18) but has surrendered the third-most passing touchdowns (27). The Bears being unable to bring down Judkins could lead to an upset, but rookie counterpart Kyle Monangai won’t be easy to tackle either, so Chicago should have the edge at home.
Winner: Chicago Bears
BAL (6-7) @ CIN (4-9)
Sunday, December 14 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Ravens appeared to be “back” when Lamar Jackson returned on the night before Halloween with a four-touchdown performance in the blowout victory over Miami—but their winning streak continued against the Vikings, Browns, and Jets (all of which were closer than you’d expect from a top contender) before Baltimore dropped games versus Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. I would expect a more focused group this weekend with another shot at the Bengals, but Lamar Jackson has simply not been himself with 197.4 passing yards per game and a 2:4 touchdown-interception ratio since the start of November; it’s crucial for the Ravens to feed Derrick Henry (10 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown on Thanksgiving), which should then open things up for Jackson through the air. Defensively, Baltimore needs to be ready for Ja’Marr Chase (who was far too quiet in the loss to Buffalo) with Joe Burrow sure to be sharper in his third game back, but the lack of pass rush (19 sacks on the season) puts a ton of pressure on the cover guys to hold up. Still, if the Ravens commit to Henry and set up play-action passes to Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews, I like them to stay right behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
ARI (3-10) @ HOU (8-5)
Sunday, December 14 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Texans have won six games in a row powered by an elite defense, and last Sunday night was a showcase opportunity for them by holding Patrick Mahomes to 160 yards and three interceptions—a career-worst performance for the three-time Super Bowl champion—in the 20-10 victory. There can always be worry about a letdown following that type of game, but I wouldn’t think it’s something Houston would let happen with the defense being at the level it is, and Arizona looked overmatched in a blowout loss to the Rams last week. If the Cardinals are going to come out on top, Michael Wilson will need to keep up his red-hot play with Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) likely out again, as the featured role for Wilson has led to monster receiving lines of 15/185, 10/118, and 11/142/2 on 15+ targets in the three most recent games with Harrison inactive—but he’ll obviously face an extremely difficult task of beating the Texans. We’ll see if Arizona at least puts up a fight with a bunch of close losses being mixed in with lopsided affairs like we saw in Week 14.
Winner: Houston Texans
NYJ (3-10) @ JAX (9-4)
Sunday, December 14 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The quarterback situation for the Jets is up in the air with Tyrod Taylor (groin) and Justin Fields (knee) banged up, and the injury report is longer in general this week. I’m not going to say that means New York is “tanking” because I don’t think that’s something Aaron Glenn would subscribe to at all, but I’m sure management has their eyes set on the 2026 NFL Draft. As stated earlier this year, though, it doesn’t matter where the Jets are picking if they can’t evaluate the position, and the early returns aren’t promising with Fields being given $40 million when we’ve seen Aaron Rodgers (who they let go), Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, Marcus Mariota, and other options have success. Depending on how the season ends in Jacksonville, it would not be a complete shock if Trevor Lawrence was a possible target for New York if they decide to enter the trade market, but winning solves a lot—and Lawrence has the Jags atop the AFC South with a four-game winning streak and improved, mistake-free play in back-to-back games.
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars
LAC (9-4) @ KC (6-7)
Sunday, December 14 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Chiefs have been to the Super Bowl in five of the past six seasons, so them being on the brink of elimination from playoff contention—with a loss combined with other results knocking them out—is almost surreal. When you consider the success for Kansas City in the Andy Reid era, it’s insane for some to suggest they might need a new head coach rather than admitting that Patrick Mahomes has not played up to expectations, and that included last week when the offensive line held up surprisingly well with third-string left tackle Esa Pole being a standout performer off the bench. That said, getting a legitimate star in the backfield (thankfully for everyone else, the Chiefs passed on Jonathan Taylor back in 2020) would make things a lot easier on Mahomes and open things up for the pass-catchers, so that’s something to keep an eye on for next season. In order to extend their season and keep an outside chance of making the postseason alive, Mahomes must play better, and Chris Jones needs to be pick where he left off last Sunday night after flashing with major disruption.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
BUF (9-4) @ NE (11-2)
Sunday, December 14 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
New England will clinch the AFC East if they beat the Bills this weekend, and Mike Vrabel being 6-0 off a bye week when he was head coach of the Titans is certainly notable. In the first matchup, Buffalo was unable to cover Stefon Diggs (10 receptions for 146 yards), couldn’t get James Cook III going (15 carries for 49 yards), and lost the turnover battle (3:1)—but I’d expect them to be better in all three areas for the rematch. Another priority for the Bills should be keeping Drake Maye in the pocket after he showed his playmaking ability in the 23-20 win a couple of months ago, and TreVeyon Henderson will be more of a factor after just eight touches for 27 yards in Round 1. We’ll see if Joey Bosa (wrist) and Terrel Bernard (elbow) can return after limited practice to begin the week, but Greg Rousseau is the defender who really needs to step up for this week and beyond if Buffalo is going to truly contend—as he’s almost seemed invisible for much of the season (3.0 sacks). The Patriots might end up winning the division anyway, but I believe the Bills will show enough fight to keep it from being this weekend.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
WAS (3-10) @ NYG (2-11)
Sunday, December 14 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Commanders followed up an admirable performance in a near upset win over Denver two weeks ago by getting shutout by Minnesota in a season-ending loss—and they’ve fallen swiftly from last year when they reached the NFC Championship Game. It always felt to me like 2024 was a Cinderella run for Washington, and now the weakness of the roster has come into focus with veteran additions showing their age and Jayden Daniels (elbow) going down again (and not being as good as he was as a rookie). Individually, the silver lining is that Marcus Mariota is set for at least one more showcase opportunity to prove he should get a chance to start somewhere else next season, and the last-place Giants are a very favorable opponent for him with a 23:5 touchdown-interception ratio allowed. The same is true for Jaxson Dart on the other side (Dan Quinn’s defense has allowed a 26:6 touchdown-interception ratio and league-high 8.5 yards per attempt), but fans need to hope the scaled-back aggression in an attempt to stay healthy doesn’t take away what made Dart so exciting to begin his career.
Winner: Washington Commanders
LV (2-11) @ PHI (8-5)
Sunday, December 14 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Whether it’s clueless sports radio hosts or even more clueless “experts” with a platform on ESPN, the narrative about Jalen Hurts this week has been completely ridiculous. The reigning Super Bowl MVP didn’t play well at all on Monday night, but read those first five words of this sentence again, and look at the entire body of work for his career with a 54-25 career record, 158 total touchdowns in less than five full seasons as a starter, two Super Bowl appearances (where he outplayed Patrick Mahomes both times)—and perhaps most importantly, what the suddenly brazen doubters thought of him in the pre-draft process. Las Vegas would be one of many teams lining up to trade for Hurts if the Eagles were dumb enough to think they could find an upgrade (just listen to what team owner Tom Brady has said about Hurts over the years), but I would expect Sunday will be a get-right performance for Philadelphia; though the Raiders might have a better shot to push the Eagles’ losing streak to four games with Kenny Pickett starting in place of Geno Smith (shoulder).
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
GB (9-3-1) @ DEN (11-2)
Sunday, December 14 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
The Broncos have won 10 games in a row and are in control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the tiebreaker over New England locked up following last week’s win over the Raiders—but they are still underdogs on Sunday with a confident Green Bay team coming to Mile High. However, I wouldn’t bet against Denver, and Sean Payton will undoubtedly be using the line (+2.5) as motivation for them, especially with the game being at home (so, sportsbooks believe the Packers are nearly a touchdown better on a neutral field). The status of Josh Jacobs (knee) is the big one to watch, as the Broncos aren’t as dominant on defense when opponents can run the ball, and Jacobs has had some huge games versus his former AFC West rival (96.1 rushing yards per game and nine rushing touchdowns in eight matchups). On the other side of the ball, Bo Nix was great in the win over Las Vegas by completing 31-of-38 passes, and the Packers will have a similar philosophy on defense by allowing short completions and rallying to tackle. With that in mind, look for Marvin Mims Jr. to be the X-factor with Payton saying he wants to get him more involved as a weapon who can make a difference with the ball in his hands.
Winner: Denver Broncos
DET (8-5) @ LAR (10-3)
Sunday, December 14 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
Jared Goff has downplayed the matchup with the Rams this week by saying the playoff victory two seasons ago and winning last year in the opener should be the end of the storyline of him versus his former team—but Dan Campbell will still press the right buttons for his team to be motivated following what might have been a season-saving win over the Cowboys. The concern more than being ready to play is Detroit not having enough healthy bodies on the backend to stop Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, and I’m very interested to see how the Lions decide to play them; that includes in scoring territory where I assume the team could leave Adams in one-on-one coverage to take their chances rather than giving Los Angeles lighter boxes to run into. Even before getting into the red zone, I’m concerned the man coverage for Detroit won’t be able to stick with Adams, and Nacua (who went for 181 yards and a score in the playoff loss to the Lions as a rookie) reminded everyone of his greatness last week with a 7/167/2 line. The inconsistency for Detroit in protecting Goff and generating pressure themselves has me leaning towards the Rams.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
CAR (7-6) @ NO (3-10)
Sunday, December 14 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
Carolina has two games versus Tampa Bay over the final three weeks that will decide the NFC South, but they won’t be overlooking New Orleans this week after being outslugged in the first meeting (a 17-7 loss). Before the bye, Bryce Young was excellent in a win over the Rams by completing 15-of-20 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns, but the Panthers wisely played through the running backs (20 touches for Rico Dowdle and 19 touches for Chuba Hubbard) to complement a defense that forced three takeaways against Matthew Stafford. The Saints are also coming off an impressive win by upsetting the Bucs last week, and Tyler Shough has been better than his 5:5 touchdown-interception ratio might indicate—though he still needs to cut down on the sacks with 12 absorbed over the past three weeks. A lack of pass rush is an issue for the Panthers to make things tougher on the outside cornerback duo of Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, but I expect they’ll do a better job containing Chris Olave (5/104/1 in the first meeting) to keep Carolina on the winning track.
Winner: Carolina Panthers
IND (8-5) @ SEA (10-3)
Sunday, December 14 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Philip Rivers coming out of retirement when on the verge of potentially being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame only to lead Indianapolis to the playoffs would be Hollywood stuff, but let’s not overshadow how well Daniel Jones (Achilles) played with an 8-2 start to get the Colts in the position they’re in. Rivers is a different style quarterback, but toughness is a common thread between the two—with Jones playing on a fractured leg and Rivers gutting through a torn ACL in the AFC Championship Game way back in 2007. Unfortunately, whether it’s Rivers or rookie Riley Leonard under center this weekend, Seattle is one of the toughest opponents a quarterback can face, and Mike Macdonald will surely have his team geared up to stop Jonathan Taylor. Looking ahead, the schedule doesn’t get much easier for the Colts over the final three weeks (v SF, v JAX, @ HOU), so look for them to empty the playbook—which could include a heavier dose of Tyler Warren in the wildcat.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
TEN (2-11) @ SF (9-4)
Sunday, December 14 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The running game helped with Tony Pollard (25 carries for 161 yards and two touchdowns) going off, but Cameron Ward showing he can pull out a win in winter weather was encouraging; he might not face it much playing in the AFC South, but going to Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore, and other cold climates will be necessary to advance in January if Tennessee can reach the level they want to reach as a team. Last week, the pass rush for Cleveland was slowed down by the snow, but it was still a good sign that Ward only took one sack (after being sacked multiple times in every other game this season), and he could have time to throw again this week with the 49ers struggling to generate consistent pressure since Nick Bosa (knee) went down for the year. On defense, I just don’t have faith in the Titans being able to stop Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, and others with Brock Purdy having two full weeks to get closer to 100% for a team that is flying completely under the radar as an NFC contender.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers
MIN (5-8) @ DAL (6-6-1)
Sunday, December 14 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Despite flashes shown and improvement stopping the run since acquiring Quinnen Williams, last Thursday night’s loss to the Lions was reason to believe it might take another offseason of additions and getting healthier for things to gel for the Dallas defense—and the team now needs to win out and have the Eagles go 2-2 (with Philadelphia getting to face the Raiders this week and the Commanders twice) to prevent a repeat winner in the NFC East for the first time in two decades. Trevon Diggs (knee) still working his way back and sounding like he’s not fully bought into what Brian Schottenheimer wants from his players (based on the head coach’s comments this week) takes away some of the playmaking for the Cowboys, so we’ll see how J.J. McCarthy fares after his first Sunday Night Football game didn’t go well back in Week 2 with a 22-6 loss to the Falcons. If Dak Prescott has CeeDee Lamb (concussion) on the field to pair with George Pickens, it might be too much to handle for the Vikings.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
MIA (6-7) @ PIT (7-6)
Monday, December 15 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN
T.J. Watt (lung) being in the hospital after experiencing discomfort at the training facility on Wednesday is a strange situation without more information, but we can only hope for the best to get the superstar defender back to full health. Assuming he can’t play on Monday night, it’d be a significant blow to the Steelers in the middle of a divisional race, but the offense is at least coming off one of their best games of the season with Aaron Rodgers turning back the clock in the 27-22 win over Baltimore. The status of Miami’s best player feels much more positive with De’Von Achane (ribs) apparently pushing to get back in the game last week, and he’s been on an absolute tear with 7.2 yards per carry, 157.3 total yards per game, and four touchdowns over his past three-and-a-half outings—and the increased workload lines up with a four-game winning streak for the Dolphins. Pittsburgh has never faced Achane, but their struggles in stopping James Cook III at the end of November (32 carries for 144 yards) doesn’t bode well for them holding him in check. However, frigid temperatures have often been a boost to Rodgers in his career, and Tua Tagovailoa—who was 0-7 in sub-46-degree weather before beating the Jets last week—probably won’t handle it as well.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers