Season: 150-73-1
LAR (11-3) @ SEA (11-3)
Thursday, December 18 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
Rams-Seahawks is a battle for first place in the NFC West, and the winner will also have control of the No. 1 seed in the conference with two weeks to play. In the first meeting, Sam Darnold struggled mightily with four interceptions, but it was still just a 21-19 loss as the Seattle defense stepped up in a big way after falling behind 14-3 in the first quarter. After the game, star linebacker Ernest Jones IV defending Darnold was a key moment that surely boosted his quarterback’s confidence, and the Seahawks have since won four consecutive games with Darnold only having one interception over that span. Improvement in the red zone is necessary for Seattle to reach the heights they want to reach as a team—and I wouldn’t be surprised if rookie Jalen Milroe was reintegrated as a “secret weapon” tonight and into the postseason. For the Rams, likely being without Davante Adams (hamstring) could hurt them deep in scoring territory based on all the attention he draws, and it’ll be interesting to see how Matthew Stafford handles the rain and wind in the forecast. Keep an eye on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and/or Rashid Shaheed being targeted on a double move at some point to potentially be the difference to put Seattle atop the NFC.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
PHI (9-5) @ WAS (4-10)
Saturday, December 20 | 5:00 PM ET | FOX
The Commanders not living up to expectations this season is disappointing with them being featuring on Saturday evening and again on Christmas Day, but they’re still looking to extend the NFC East race by preventing the Eagles from winning the division on their home field this weekend. Marcus Mariota starting in place of Jayden Daniels (elbow) over the final three games extends his audition to be a starter elsewhere in 2026 (which he should be), and remember, Washington showed they could move the ball on the eventual Super Bowl champions in Week 16 of last season with a 36-33 home victory. The individual battle to watch is Terry McLaurin versus Quinyon Mitchell, and things could get chippy between them after three battles last year that culminated with Mitchell mocking McLaurin’s touchdown celebration following an interception in the postseason win. On the other side of the ball, I can’t imagine a struggling run defense for the Commanders stopping Saquon Barkley (who had 138.0 rushing yards per game and seven rushing touchdowns in the three meetings last season), so it’ll probably take Mariota completely going off for Washington to pull off the upset.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
GB (9-4-1) @ CHI (10-4)
Saturday, December 20 | 8:20 PM ET | FOX
The Packers and Bears had a down-to-the-wire thriller in the first matchup two weeks ago, and Round 2 will be at Soldier Field with Green Bay going from first place to suddenly being in serious danger of missing the postseason in a loaded NFC if they can’t win one of the primetime opportunities over the next two weeks (next Saturday night will be a clash with the Ravens). Of course, losing their best player in Micah Parsons (knee) is a crushing blow, so Jordan Love needs to step up to reach the status many supporters have already put on him by labeling him as an elite quarterback—and the running game should be more of a focus after Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson combined for just 14 carries last week in the loss to Denver (compared to 40 pass attempts for Love). I don’t have questions about Caleb Williams being a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback, but Chicago would still like him to stack more completions (currently at a 58.0% clip) to complement the highlight plays; while that will be tougher this week with Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden III (ankle) out, it was good to see DJ Moore involved in the win over Cleveland with a couple of touchdowns. I’d lean towards the home team with Ben Johnson and Williams having a better feel for attacking the Packers in the rematch.
Winner: Chicago Bears
TB (7-7) @ CAR (7-7)
Sunday, December 21 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Bucs falling to the Falcons last Thursday night opened the door for Carolina to win the NFC South as soon as this week, but they couldn’t take advantage of their own divisional game—so things swung back in favor of Tampa Bay with a victory this week and a win over the Dolphins in Week 17 keeping the Panthers from even having a chance to win the division in Week 18. Still, room for error certainly won’t lead to the Bucs being unfocused on Sunday considering how things ended for them last week, but it’s fair to wonder how high the ceiling is with Baker Mayfield at quarterback; there’s been a great infusion of youth on offense by adding Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Tez Johnson, Jalen McMillan, and Graham Barton over the past couple of drafts, so Mayfield needs to capitalize on opportunities like the open throw to Egbuka that would have sealed the game against Atlanta. The Bucs need to be better on defense, too, but Bryce Young has gone 0-4 against them in his career with the Panthers averaging 13.8 points per game in those matchups, and the anger about how Week 15 ended is enough to give Tampa Bay the edge.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
BUF (10-4) @ CLE (3-11)
Sunday, December 21 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Buffalo going down 21-0 last week to New England felt like it could have been the final straw for believing in them as a legitimate championship contender—but Josh Allen went off to bring them back in the eventual 35-31 victory, and the AFC is wide open with the Chiefs officially eliminated. Although a letdown is possible this week with the Browns being better at home and having a rookie star in Quinshon Judkins who can run on a defense that is allowing 5.4 yards per carry, injuries on the offensive line for Cleveland limits those odds. Plus, top cornerback Christian Benford (toe) returning will make things tougher on Shedeur Sanders, and it was awesome to see Tre’Davious White make a highlight interception (his first since 2023) in the comeback win over the Patriots. The defensive line still needs to be a lot better in January, but Joey Bosa making impact plays in big games like we saw last week is what he was brought to Buffalo for, and Ed Oliver (biceps) will hopefully be back for the postseason. If the Bills don’t allow Judkins to run wild like college teammate TreVeyon Henderson just did against them, Sunday should be a game they handle.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
LAC (10-4) @ DAL (6-7-1)
Sunday, December 21 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Cowboys will be eliminated from playoff contention if the Eagles win on Saturday, but Brian Schottenheimer still wants to finish strong—and beating the Chargers would give them a very good chance of going 9-7-1 (with road games against the Commanders and Giants over the final two weeks) for what was an on-the-fly retooling that included off-field tragedy. Improving the run defense as Jerry Jones wanted already has been accomplished with Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark added to the interior, and I think Rex Ryan is a name to keep in mind if defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is fired; Ryan was up for the job two years ago, and his 3-4 scheme fits the personnel in Dallas to get all three of Williams, Clark, and Osa Odighizuwa on the field together. That said, coverage is the bigger problem, and Los Angeles should be able to get some explosive plays from Justin Herbert and his pass-catchers with a decrease in production over the past few weeks. CeeDee Lamb feels due for a monster game like we’ve seen in December a couple of times in his career, though, and I think the Cowboys will finish 3-0 to provide optimism about truly contending next season.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
NYJ (3-11) @ NO (4-10)
Sunday, December 21 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Saints are another team that is set up to end the season with a winning streak, and they already got things started with wins over the Bucs and Panthers this month—with winnable matchups against the Jets, Titans, and Falcons still to go. Especially due to a thin quarterback class in 2026 and more teams that need answers than answers available at the position, rookie Tyler Shough is making a very strong case to be the clear starter heading into the offseason; taking sacks is still an issue (five last week), but Shough already has more wins (3-3 record) than the rest of the rookie class, and it’s not like the situation in New Orleans is much better than others. The Jets will be acquiring a franchise quarterback (whether via the draft or trade) at some point over the next two offseasons, but as wondered previously, will the current regime be the ones making the choice? For as poorly as New York has performed, Aaron Glenn firing defensive coordinator Steve Wilks seemed a bit strange and perhaps shows he’s feeling some heat in Year 1—and all the assets the Jets now have can’t go to waste if ownership doesn’t fully believe in those in place to make the franchise-altering decisions.
Winner: New Orleans Saints
MIN (6-8) @ NYG (2-12)
Sunday, December 21 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
A matchup between J.J. McCarthy and Jaxson Dart this weekend might be the first of the “TikTok generation” of quarterbacks doing battle—and I’m sure celebrating with a “griddy” into the end zone (like McCarthy on Sunday night) and posing for the cameras (like Dart has done) will become more frequent in future years. On the field, McCarthy has shown undeniable progress in back-to-back wins, but the Vikings need to be honest with themselves this offseason about whether they believe in him as the long-term answer or want to reopen the Super Bowl window with a veteran addition instead; for Dart, I’d like to see him operate from the pocket over the final three weeks, but his future success will really come down to whether the Giants get the big decisions right around him—from general manager, to head coach, to draft picks. I know this won’t be a popular opinion amidst media talk about New York trading Dart if they have the No. 1 overall pick (which fans are furious about being a discussion), but I believe the best path might be trading both to get an absolute haul for a rebuild… which can happen in one offseason if the right buttons are pushed.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings
KC (6-8) @ TEN (2-12)
Sunday, December 21 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The team will be retooled and back in contention again, but the torn ACL suffered by Patrick Mahomes last week felt like the end of the era of dominance for Kansas City—particularly with Travis Kelce probably leaning towards retirement. However, there aren’t a ton of key free agents that the Chiefs will be at risk of losing in the offseason, and I’ll reiterate (from last week) that getting a star at running back could solve a lot for Andy Reid’s offense. Not to look too far ahead, but the silver lining of missing the postseason is that Kansas City could suddenly be within range of Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love to help take the pressure off Mahomes next year (and I assume he will work his way onto the field for Week 1) to begin the second half of his career. In the meantime, Gardner Minshew could be without Rashee Rice (concussion) this week in his first start with the Chiefs, but I expect Reid will want to show he can move the ball without Mahomes, and young playmakers like rookies Brashard Smith and Jalen Royals could provide a spark over the final three games.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
CIN (4-10) @ MIA (6-8)
Sunday, December 21 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers will make his first career start this week, and he not the typical late Day 3 pick having played in plenty of big games at Texas—and evaluators wanting to see Arch Manning last year might have unfairly impacted Ewers’ draft stock. We thought the rookie was worth taking in the third round, and Miami provides a perfect scheme fit for him with a play style that is similar to Tua Tagovailoa in terms of getting the ball out of his hands early. Furthermore, Cincinnati is the ideal opponent to face considering their struggles as a defense, and that includes defending running backs out of the backfield—which we know Mike McDaniel wants to exploit with De’Von Achane. Unfortunately for Ewers, he’ll be facing a determined Joe Burrow after the superstar passer expressed extreme frustration about his play in last week’s shutout loss against the Ravens, and Tee Higgins (concussion) being back might be too much to handle for Miami.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
ATL (5-9) @ ARI (3-11)
Sunday, December 21 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
The entire body of work for the Falcons under general manager Terry Fontenot hasn’t been good enough (particularly with how they’ve handled the quarterback position), but he deserves credit for identifying James Pearce Jr. (the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite with 7.5 sacks over his past six games) as a prospect worth moving up for in the 2025 NFL Draft. The price paid was obviously costly with a possible top-10 pick next year going to the Rams, but I’d bet LA would take Pearce with that pick anyway if he was thrown back into the draft pool for 2026—and the Falcons expected to compete this season. On offense, it sounds like Drake London (knee) will be back on Sunday, but the team needs to continue playing through Kyle Pitts Sr. after a historic 11/166/3 line last Thursday night with Kirk Cousins showing he has plenty left in the tank. Based on how the Cardinals have performed on defense this month with 40+ points allowed in both games, I like the Falcons to pick up where they left off in Week 15.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
JAX (10-4) @ DEN (12-2)
Sunday, December 21 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
The narrative flipping on Bo Nix has happened much faster than I anticipated, but it shows how undeniably lights out he was in the 34-26 win over Green Bay. At the same time, it’s funny to see media members ignore what they said about Nix a month ago (“Will the Broncos draft a quarterback next year?”) or claim they’ve always been on the bandwagon (despite having him ranked as the No. 6 quarterback in the class); and similar to Josh Allen at the start of his career, Nix has been flashing high-level ability since entering the league, and it’s people that can’t evaluate quarterback play who are trying to overemphasize the improvements to make it seem as if Nix achieved rare strides in his development rather than them being flat-out wrong about him. The Jaguars will be a challenge on Sunday with Trevor Lawrence gaining confidence following a six-touchdown performance, but I don’t see them slowing down Nix in an AFC matchup that is flying under the radar with so many big games in Week 16.
Winner: Denver Broncos
PIT (8-6) @ DET (8-6)
Sunday, December 21 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
The story for the Lions right now is similar to last year with defensive injuries maybe being too much to overcome, but they pushed the Rams last week as the top current seed in the NFC—and Jared Goff kept up his excellent play with 338 yards and three touchdowns in the 41-34 loss. This week, the task will be easier if they get into another shootout without needing to worry about T.J. Watt (lung) coming off the edge, but Aaron Rodgers taking more ownership of the Pittsburgh offense this month could have them ready to match Detroit; I’d look for DK Metcalf to be featured versus a smaller cornerback group with Amik Robertson (hand) potentially needing to play with a cast. The best way to make sure Metcalf doesn’t go off is having Aidan Hutchinson and the pass rush get to Rodgers, and the linebackers tackling at a high level in space can keep Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell contained. If Goff avoids interceptions like he has all season, the Lions should get a win at Ford Field before facing the Vikings on Christmas—with a 2-0 stretch setting up a possible win-and-in game versus the Bears in Week 18.
Winner: Detroit Lions
LV (2-12) @ HOU (9-5)
Sunday, December 21 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Not that they should be talking as if they will be gone after the season, but the Raiders are sounding like a group that is in complete denial about their situation—with Pete Carroll discussing the path to contention and Geno Smith saying he expects to win a lot of games for Las Vegas in the future. The reality is that the franchise is set to “reset” once again this offseason, and it might be time to figuratively pull the plug (and wait 30 seconds) rather than thinking things will just click one year in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, and Justin Herbert. So, the first step needs to be finding a franchise quarterback, and the team needs to think outside the box in order to accomplish that; it was interesting that Tom Brady talked up Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza on FOX NFL Sunday the morning after he won the Heisman, but part of me wonders if a competitor like Brady would put that out there if Mendoza is someone he had his sights on for the Silver and Black. Whatever ends up happening next year, a matchup versus a dominant Houston defense might leave zero doubt about the chances of Carroll and Smith being back.
Winner: Houston Texans
NE (11-3) @ BAL (7-7)
Sunday, December 21 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
The Patriots were ready to unpack the hats and T-shirts last week when going up by three touchdowns on the Bills, so now they need to make sure things don’t spiral for them (a 2-1 finish would clinch the AFC East). On Sunday night, it will be exciting to watch Derrick Henry face Mike Vrabel’s defense for the first time, but Baltimore needs to stay committed to the run if lanes are clogged up early; the objective for the Patriots will likely be making Lamar Jackson beat them from the pocket, and that becomes a lot simpler if the Ravens abandon the run. To begin this month, King Henry has rushed 36 times for 194 yards (5.4 YPC)—though he’s yet to find the end zone—and the last matchup versus New England saw him turn 35 touches into 204 total yards and a touchdown for what was Tom Brady’s final game with the franchise. This week will be a prime opportunity for Drake Maye to answer any questions about him being a no-doubt franchise quarterback, but first-round rookie Malaki Starks lurking on the backend could neutralize some of the downfield shots we’ve seen connect in 2025.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
SF (10-4) @ IND (8-6)
Monday, December 22 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
Philip Rivers should be applauded for his performance last week in the near upset win over the Seahawks, and nothing should be taken away from him if the Colts end up missing the playoffs—as the schedule for them is brutal with the Jaguars and Texans coming up to finish the season. That said, I’m not writing off Indy’s chances by any means, and for as good as the 49ers are, their lack of a consistent pass rush could allow Rivers to get into a rhythm on Monday night while throwing to a very good collection of playmakers in Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and Tyler Warren. But for the most part, the Colts will play through Jonathan Taylor as much as they can (28 touches last week), and the defense performing like they did in the loss to Seattle can allow them to compete with anyone. Interestingly, the Niners were a consideration for Rivers when he was retired and Brock Purdy went down at the end of his rookie season in 2022—and it’s hilarious that a couple of weeks ago, Kyle Shanahan had a realization about needing to face Rivers when talking on the phone to him about the eventual return.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers