Regular season: 179-92-1
#5 LAR (12-5) @ #4 CAR (8-9)
Saturday, January 10 | 4:30 PM ET | FOX
Weather could impact a few games in the Wild Card Round, and that includes Rams-Panthers with rain currently expected—which I would think even things out towards Carolina as a double-digit underdog. The Panthers already showed they can compete with Los Angeles by causing Matthew Stafford to turn it over three times (with the highlight being a pick-six by Mike Jackson) in a 31-28 win in late November, and the MVP favorite notably has not fared well in rainy conditions throughout his career. Plus, Carolina was able to win the first matchup with top cornerback Jaycee Horn out, Bryce Young elevating his play in the postseason is easy to imagine. However, I would anticipate the Rams to ride the running game in the rematch, and the offense should be much better in scoring territory with Davante Adams (hamstring) back—with many overlooking how valuable he is. The Rams playing their starters last week is another bonus in my opinion, and while I believe the defense under Chris Shula has become overrated, it would be a surprise if they didn’t prevent the big plays that the Panthers connected on in the first meeting (touchdown throws of 33, 35, and 43 yards).
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
#7 GB (9-7-1) @ #2 CHI (11-6)
Saturday, January 10 | 8:00 PM ET | Prime Video
A couple of down-to-the-wire battles last month certainly helps its case, but Packers-Bears is the most compelling game of the Wild Card Round for me—and the NFC North rivals should have another close finish on Saturday night. Unfortunately, we will only get a few more years of cold, wintry matchups in Chicago (with the franchise set to have a dome for their new stadium), but snow is in the forecast this weekend, so the clash has all the makings of a classic. If things come down to whoever runs the ball better, it’s tough to go against the Bears with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai; but Josh Jacobs being off the injury report after rest in Week 18 is notable, and we’ll see how both sides do after opposite approaches in terms of playing starters last week (I agree 100% with Ben Johnson’s mindset, but to be fair, Green Bay was locked in as the No. 7 seed). At quarterback, Jordan Love only having 13 pass attempts since December 14 is something to watch, and he’s gone 0-2 with a 2:5 touchdown-interception ratio over his past two playoff games. So, I would give the definite edge to Chicago with Caleb Williams set to get Rome Odunze (foot) back to pair with DJ Moore and Luther Burden III—and Williams was only sacked once in two matchups in the regular season.
Winner: Chicago Bears
#6 BUF (12-5) @ #3 JAX (13-4)
Sunday, January 11 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Bills seem to be at a crossroads depending on what happens this week (and in the postseason as a whole)—but it’s bad luck for them that an AFC field without the Chiefs has them with the worth pass-catching group since the start of Josh Allen’s career. On the bright side, the defense has really gelled down the stretch, and although Joey Bosa didn’t have his most productive season (5.0 sacks), he might give the pass rush the “closer” it’s needed in big games over the past several years. My concern is the run defense not holding up versus Travis Etienne Jr., as the Jaguars will attack the weakness of opponents, and their star runner has rushed 37 times for 204 yards (5.5 YPC) and two touchdowns in two career meetings versus Buffalo. In addition to Etienne, rookie runners Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. both bring energy off the bench that matches Jacksonville’s fiery mentality as a team—and Trevor Lawrence knows he can perform in the playoffs (1-1 record with a near upset of Kansas City two years ago). All that said, it’s difficult to pick against Allen as one of the top postseason quarterbacks in NFL history (25:4 touchdown-interception ratio), and Dalton Kincaid being healthy might be enough to advance.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
#6 SF (12-5) @ #3 PHI (11-6)
Sunday, January 11 | 4:30 PM ET | FOX
The 49ers cooling off on offense obviously came at an inopportune time, as the 13-3 loss to Seattle last Saturday night pushed them from homefield advantage through Super Bowl LX down to the No. 6 seed—forcing them on the road to take on the defending champions. And making matters worse for San Francisco, they won’t have the extra week for Trent Williams (hamstring) to heal up or for Fred Warner (ankle) to make a potentially remarkable return, so Sunday will be a major challenge if Philadelphia is at their best. Of course, that’s the catch for the Eagles considering how inconsistent they’ve been this season, and Kyle Shanahan will surely be looking back at how Ben Johnson attacked Vic Fangio’s defense on the ground when Chicago had a historic rushing performance in the Black Friday win. On the other side of the ball, Philly might have some trouble versus Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green outside the numbers, but it’s a lot easier to throw the ball without needing to worry about a ferocious pass rush—which the Niners don’t have without Nick Bosa (knee). Brock Purdy being on fire like he was at the end of December would probably lead to a San Francisco win, but the Eagles should get Lane Johnson (foot) back, have a better roster, and will be powered by a difference-making home crowd.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
#7 LAC (11-6) @ #2 NE (14-3)
Sunday, January 11 | 8:00 PM ET | NBC
Mike Vrabel is a top-tier head coach and could immediately make a deep playoff run (particularly with the AFC appearing weak) after a 14-3 season; but the Patriots could just as easily be eliminated on Sunday night, and they sort of feel like the Vikings from last year where they might not have quite enough talent wise despite a 14-win season. The difference is New England gets to play at home (Minnesota was a No. 5 seed) and Drake Maye’s confidence couldn’t be any higher, though it’s not a fake narrative to point out how easy the schedule was for the Pats—who went 1-2 versus teams with a winning record (and the victory was by three points versus Buffalo when they weren’t at their best defensively and had some very questionable officiating go against them). For the Chargers, two playoff runs for Justin Herbert failed to get off the ground with a blown 27-0 lead to Jacksonville in 2023 and a four-interception performance last year in the loss to Houston, but these teams not being evenly matched at all in December of 2024 (a 40-7 win for LA) is difficult to ignore. Look for Herbert to finally get on the board with a playoff win and Ladd McConkey (8/94/2 last year) to again show how much of a mistake the Pats made in passing on him in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
#5 HOU (12-5) @ #4 PIT (10-7)
Monday, January 12 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
Sunday night felt like it could have been the end for both Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin with Baltimore in position for a game-winning field goal on the final play, but the kick going wide right got Pittsburgh in the postseason—where they feel more dangerous than recent years with Rodgers at quarterback, DK Metcalf back from his suspension, and the cornerback group settling in nicely behind Joey Porter Jr. I believe the “wild card” of Monday night will be how the game is officiated, as if Porter—who arguably gets as many bad calls against him as anyone—is able to be physical with Nico Collins on the outside, that’d be a huge advantage for the Steelers. Overall, it’s worth nothing that C.J. Stroud is much better indoors (21-10 career record and 8.0 yards per attempt) than outdoors (7-8 career record and 6.4 yards per attempt), and Rodgers has remained excellent in the playoffs (305.0 passing yards per game over his past eight outings) despite limited team success and no appearances since 2021. If the Steelers can run the ball—and the Texans have been vulnerable at times—to keep the pass rush from teeing off in third-and-long situations, I’m not going against Mike Tomlin and a franchise that has won 23 consecutive home games on Monday night.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers