2018 MLB Playoff And Award Predictions

Baseball is officially back. It’s MLB Opening Day, and 30 teams will embark on a long 162-game journey with the hopes of playing deep into October. Unexpected things like breakouts, slumps, injuries, and trades will happen over the next several months, but predictions still must be on the record.

 

Playoff Predictions

 

AL East: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have won the AL East in back-to-back seasons, and they only got better over the winter. So while many are expecting the Yankees to win the division for the first time since 2012, I don’t expect it to happen. With a stacked lineup including veterans like Hanley Ramirez and J.D. Martinez as well as excellent young-but-experienced players like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, to go along with a pitching staff that has one of the best one-two-threes—Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello—and a shutdown closer in Craig Kimbrel, Boston should be really good.

 

AL Central: Cleveland Indians

Other teams like the Dodgers and Astros might challenge them, but the Indians probably have the best pitching staff in baseball. Two-time and reigning Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber has won 18 games in three of the last four seasons, and he was nearly unbeatable last year. As long as Kluber and company pitch the way they are capable, Cleveland should win the AL Central.

 

AL West: Houston Astros

The AL West might be the most difficult division in the American League, but the Astros are the obvious favorite to win it. We’ve seen sizable drop-offs in production from one season to the next, but the Astros will probably have a top three offense in baseball after they were the best by a good margin last season—they led in average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Not to get too far ahead, but Houston is a potential dynasty, and it’d be shocking if they were not playing in October.

 

AL Wild Card 1: New York Yankees

If Yankee Stadium isn’t filled up every game to see Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton play, there’s something wrong. There are probably going to be a lot of home runs, and new manager Aaron Boone should have a big smile on his face when he fills out his lineup card each day. As always, there’s a chance the Yankees are buyers at the trade deadline and boost their starting pitching. However, as it stands, the Yankees can just use their offense to get leads heading into the final third of the game, then the bullpen trio of David Robertson, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman can shut the door on teams.

 

AL Wild Card 2: Los Angeles Angels

The performance of Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will be one of the biggest storylines to watch this season, and his production could determine the success of the Angels. The Twins are among the other teams that are likely to challenge hard for a wild card spot, if not a division crown, but it just doesn’t seem right that a Mike Trout-led Angels team miss the playoffs for four-straight seasons, which would be the case if they miss out in 2018.

 

NL East: Washington Nationals

Even with Daniel Murphy out to start the season, the Nats lineup is filled with very tough outs—including former NL MVP Bryce Harper. They might have been the overwhelming NL favorites if they signed Jake Arrieta to form a superstar rotation, but Washington still rivals the Dodgers for the best starting rotation in the NL. One issue for the Nationals is that the NL East overall should be a lot better this season. Though perhaps the Marlins trading away many of their best players will offset that.

 

NL Central: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs appeared to be in a slight lull for much of last season, but they eventually took first place in the NL Central and won it by six games. Milwaukee and St. Louis should both be legitimate threats in 2018, but the Cubbies are the favorites until they get knocked off. There are some concerns, and it’ll be interesting to see Brandon Morrow in the closer’s role, but the Cubs should be back in the postseason again.

 

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers

The roster that won 104 games last season and narrowly lost in the World Series is almost all back, and they’ve added Matt Kemp back into the mix after he played for the Padres and Braves over the last four seasons. LA is really, really deep, and the only big concern might be keeping everyone engaged even if some players don’t get any time for long stretches. Bringing back someone as respected as Chase Utley, a move that the players on the team seemed to love, should help the Dodgers remain tight and one of the best teams in baseball.

 

NL Wild Card 1: Philadelphia Phillies

Everything the Phillies have done leading up to the season—signing Carlos Santana, then signing Jake Arrieta, then having Scott Kingery make the big-league roster—indicate they expect to compete this season. Even their slogan “Be Bold” hints that they don’t only think they can make the playoffs, but that they could win the NL East and more. The outfield, which basically includes four starters, is one of the best in baseball both offensively and defensively. The biggest concern is probably the left side of the diamond at third base with Maikel Franco and shortstop with J.P. Crawford. They both have potential, but they—along with the backend of the rotation—need to play well if the Phillies are going to make the postseason.

 

NL Wild Card 2: Milwaukee Brewers

Adding another starting pitcher in free agency really would have helped, but the Brewers still look like a strong team entering the regular season. This is the toughest playoff spot to pick, as the Cardinals, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Giants, and Mets all make strong cases; and there are teams like the Braves and Padres that could surprise. But an improved Brewers team gets the nod after they had a solid season last year.

 

. . .

 

World Series Prediction

 

Dodgers over Angels

Anything can happen in the postseason, so this was a really tough choice with a lot of good teams out there. The Angels making the World Series would probably mean Shohei Ohtani lives up to the hype, but it also wouldn’t be a shock to see the team add more arms to the rotation (Chris Archer?) and bullpen via trades. As for the Dodgers, they showed how close they can get to a championship last year. 2018 might be their year to win the whole thing.

 

Some might be asking, “Does LA deserve two teams in the World Series?” Considering many fans don’t show up to games until the sixth inning, probably not. But it would be exciting to see the Dodgers and the Angels in the World Series, with one of the best pitchers in history and one of the best position players in history on opposite sides.

 

. . .

 

Award Predictions

 

American League MVP: Mike Trout, Angels

It’s a bit weird that Mike Trout only has two AL MVP awards in his career, but if the Angels make the playoffs then there’s a great chance he wins a third this season. Some were even pushing for him to win the award last season despite playing in only 114 games because of his thumb injury. Trout is still only 26 and should put up yet another monster season in 2018.

 

National League MVP: Bryce Harper, Nationals

Bryce Harper was making a strong case for his second MVP award last season, until he suffered the nasty leg injury in August. After hitting only .243 in 2016, his average was back up to .319 last year. Entering the last year of his contract, Harper should be laser-focused and have an outstanding average with big-time power numbers for a Nationals team that should be in the postseason again.

 

American League Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Astros

Corey Kluber is a hard guy to pick against after the season he had last year, but Justin Verlander might have thrown as well as ever after he arrived with the Astros last season—and that’s saying something considering the career he’s had. Playing with the league’s best offense, racking up wins should not be a problem for Verlander. Hitting the 20-win mark for the second time in his career would not be a surprise.

 

National League Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw’s numbers are always ridiculous. In 2018, he’ll likely have an ERA under 2.50 and a WHIP under 1.00, which is just stupid good. Kershaw can become a free agent this winter if he chooses to, so the motivation of another $200 million deal might be in his head a little bit too.

 

American League Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani, Angels

The spring did not go well for Shohei Ohtani, but the good news is he does not seem concerned at all about it. While the numbers weren’t pretty, you could see the stuff from Ohtani. If he’s contributing on the mound and chips in at the plate for a team that makes the postseason, Rookie of the Year might be an easy choice.

 

National League Rookie of the Year: Scott Kingery, Phillies

The fact that the Phillies are having Scott Kingery on the big-league roster for Opening Day probably means they expect to use him a lot. Kingery will play a utility role, which could mean four or five games per week at different positions. Also, if Maikel Franco or J.P. Crawford struggle, Kingery could become a full-time starter at third or shortstop. The 23-year-old has a sweet swing and should perform for the Phillies.

 

American League Comeback Player of the Year: David Price, Red Sox

Considering he had a 3.38 ERA last season, some might not consider him worthy of this award. However, he pitched only 16 games because he dealt with an elbow injury for much of the season; and when he returned, it was in relief. Price just won 17 games with Boston in 2016, and his ERA was 3.99 with the highest WHIP since his rookie year. If he gets the ERA back around 2.50, the AL Cy Young Award might also be in reach.

 

National League Comeback Player of the Year: Adam Eaton, Nationals

Adam Eaton was off to a great start in his first year in Washington last season until a knee injury ended his year. Now back atop the Nats order, Eaton might lead the entire MLB in runs scored. He should also play great defense in the outfield, and he’s simply a guy a lot of people like—thus, a good bet for the award.

 

American League Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia, Angels

Of the teams I predict to make the playoffs in the American League, the Angels are the least likely choice according to most. The two-time Manager of the Year might make it a third if he can get this talented group to get back into the postseason. First-year managers Alex Cora (Boston) and Aaron Boone (NYY) are also good choices.

 

National League Manager of the Year: Gabe Kapler, Phillies

If the Phillies do make the playoffs, Gabe Kapler might be a lock to win NL Manager of the Year in his first season at the helm. He’s coined the slogan “Be Bold” as the team’s mantra, and having a phrase like that seems destined to help lead to fans pushing for him to win the award.