Over the weekend, Angels superstar Mike Trout hit his 250th career home run, becoming the 13th player in MLB history to hit the quarter-to-1,000 mark before the age of 28. And with the way Trout’s all-time great career has gone, he should have a realistic shot at getting in the 600-700+ home run range. Trout is among the active players with the best chance to chase down No. 762 and become the Home Run King.
Mike Trout
Trout entered the majors has a legit five-tool player with monstrous natural power, but that power has increased as he went from a teenager to a grown man—his speed might no longer be on the elite, elitelevel, but he’s still a superb athlete with added power because of the added muscle mass. The athleticism and work ethic of the All-Star center fielder should mean he remains in his prime for a long period of time and keeps that power as he approaches his 40s—while also keeping in mind that athletes are playing at a higher level for longer periods of time, like Tom Brady in football. It will be difficult to get 762 homers, but it’s possible.
Let’s say Trout averages 35 home runs per season (he’s averaged 35.5 the last four years despite missing 22 games last season and 48 games the season before, so that’s a fair number) for 12 seasons. Excluding the ten he’s already hit this season, that’d bring him to 670 homers at the end of his age-40 season—92 off Barry Bonds’ mark. First of all, Trout could certainly have seasons in the 40-60-homer range, which could help make up for any injuries or drop in production as he ages. But if the estimate of 35 homers per season to 40 years old happens, Trout would probably be playing at a good enough level that he can put together less than 100 homers in a few years—and at that point, showing extreme loyalty for over two decades, the Angels would have no choice but to play Trout every day if he wants it, as long as he’s not playing very poorly (which is unlikely for a player of his caliber, even into his 40s).
In summation, Trout is a legend that’s going to get a statue built of him in LA at some point, and that statue could realistically read “Home Run King”. But if Trout can’t get it done, there could be some players with more outside chances to do so.
Cody Bellinger
Former NL Rookie of the Year Cody Bellinger hit 39 bombs in his first major-league season, and he played in just 132 games. Last season, he hit a relatively-disappointing 25 homers (in 162 games), but he’s back on track this year with 17 homers in 46 games. For his career, Bellinger is currently at 81 homers, so he’s a long way away—it wasn’t long ago Ryan Braun (before the PED revelations) looked like someone that could push Bonds’ record to start his career, but the Brewers veteran won’t come particularly close (despite a fantastic career). Basically, the record is one of those nearly-impossible feats, and the 23-year-old Bellinger will need to a) stay healthy, b) produce, consistently with power, for another 15+ years, and c) have multiple insane seasons of half-a-century in home runs. Forty home runs per season for 15 years is only 600 homers, but a higher pace the next few seasons could put him on a similar track to Trout.
Giancarlo Stanton
Giancarlo Stanton is a couple of years older than Trout, but he’s at 305 home runs and has a few things going for him. One, he plays in Yankee Stadium, where non-barreled shots in the air to right field can carry out (it’d really help if Stanton were a lefty playing there). Two, he has a ton of protection in the lineup with Aaron Judge (he would be in the mix for the home run record, but his big-league career probably got started too late, as he’s already 27 with just several more homers than Bellinger) and others surrounding him. And three, he’s had a 59-homer season and has the ability to do that a few more times in his career. However, Stanton has played just a few games this season as he deals with arm injuries, and basically every game counts when going after a record like this.
Nolan Arenado
In his previous four seasons, Nolan Arenado has 158 homers—with no less than 37 homers in any of those years. He’s a remarkably consistent player that rarely misses time because of injury, and he just turned 28 last month. Even if Arenado keeps up that four-season pace three more times (so 12 more seasons), he’d be under 700 home runs, displaying how absurd it was for Hank Aaron to get to 755 home runs (Bonds obviously had the help of PEDs). Arenado is unlikely to get all the way to the record, but he’ll have a chance to be among the highest on the home-run leaderboard before his career is over.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Things started slowly for 20-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the big leagues, but he showed his huge upside with four home runs in the span of a week. Vlad Jr. benefits from playing in a hitter-friendly AL East, and he figures to have ten-plus years of 50-homer potential, which would go a long way in hitting several hundred in a career. Admittedly, Guerrero Jr. is probably the longest shot simply because it’s difficult to project someone as the potential Home Run King after 20 games. It’ll take 20 seasons of averaging 38.1 homers to reach 762.