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Player Outlooks (2022)
QB Trevor Lawrence: It wasn’t a smooth ride considering the disfunction in Jacksonville, but Lawrence displayed the accuracy, touch, poise, and playmaking ability last season that gave him the “generational prospect” label coming out of Clemson, and Doug Pederson’s work with Carson Wentz in Philadelphia should only be viewed as a positive for the outlook of the talented second-year quarterback. Putting aside any concerns that remain about the Jaguars as a whole, the signings of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram—plus the debut of 2021 first-rounder Travis Etienne—give Lawrence enough to work with to finish as a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 in redraft leagues if everything comes together.
RB Travis Etienne: The trust in Doug Pederson to use Etienne as a pure running back while highlighting his strengths as a receiver (especially compared to the expected role under Urban Meyer) is reason to be very optimistic about him, and the unfortunate Achilles injury suffered by James Robinson opens the door for Etienne to become a star. The foot injury that knocked the 23-year-old out for his entire rookie campaign should be 100% healed by Week 1, and we’re honestly hoping he doesn’t break a huge play in the preseason that would cause his stock to climb too much.
RB James Robinson: Robinson is a wild card at this point of draft season, and we get the feeling Doug Pederson may be less than forthcoming about injuries if his time in Philadelphia is any indication. For those open to risk, though, Robinson is a worthwhile investment with 2,403 total yards and 18 total touchdowns in 28 career games, and Jacksonville probably won’t give Etienne a monster workload coming off a significant injury of his own. Robinson will be a top IR stash if he begins the year on the PUP list.
RB Snoop Conner: The injury to Robinson gives Conner a tremendous opportunity to earn a role to begin the season, and he’s the ideal complement to Travis Etienne as a bigger runner that can grind out yards between the tackles. That said, Conner shouldn’t be overlooked as a quality pass-catcher, and he should be monitored closely in both redraft and dynasty leagues this summer.
RB Ryquell Armstead: Armstead recovered from a lengthy battle with COVID-19 to get back on the field for Jacksonville to close out 2021, and now he’ll hope to make the 53-man roster as a no-nonsense runner at 220 pounds. The former fifth-round pick rushed 15 times for 80 yards (5.3 YPC) in limited action last season after missing the entire 2020 campaign.
WR Christian Kirk: The contract given to Kirk (four years, $72 million) has been heavily ridiculed, but you can be sure the Jaguars will feature him in Doug Pederson’s offense as an explosive target with inside-outside versatility. We have been high on Kirk as a player since he was at Texas A&M, and forming a strong connection with Trevor Lawrence could lead to him matching last year’s breakout numbers (77/982/5). Jacksonville’s offense is a step down compared to the air-raid style of the Cardinals, but Kirk being used more on double moves is the best way for him to reach his ceiling.
WR Marvin Jones: Jones had a career-high 120 targets in his first season with Jacksonville, but the overall struggles of the league’s worst scoring offense (14.9 points per game) held him back from the WR3 ranks (he finished as the WR39). While the Jaguars should be better under the new coaching staff, Christian Kirk was signed to be the No. 1 receiver, and Jones—in the final year of his deal—could split too much playing time with Zay Jones, Laviska Shenault Jr., Jamal Agnew, and Laquon Treadwell to be a reliable FLEX.
WR Laviska Shenault Jr.: Even though Doug Pederson believes you can’t have too many weapons, Shenault Jr. is in a difficult spot with the Jaguars having Kirk and Jones locked in as starters, while also giving Zay Jones a three-year, $24-million deal and getting Jamal Agnew back from a hip injury. The former second-round pick forcing himself onto the field would be a good problem to have, but he’ll be low in the rankings unless he shines in camp.
WR Zay Jones: Jones showed a great connection with Derek Carr in Las Vegas, and now he could settle into a similar role with the Jaguars as a situational perimeter option for Trevor Lawrence. The former second-round pick has scored just two touchdowns over the past three seasons, though, and in a new city, he could have several options ahead of him in the pecking order for targets. Showing chemistry with Lawrence in the summer would help his cause.
WR Jamal Agnew: Agnew should be back as one of the NFL’s top returners this season, but will his offensive role get diminished due to all the new additions? Maybe the production of the explosive 27-year-old—including seven carries for 111 yards and a score on the ground—will lead to more action in 2022, but Urban Meyer being gone is probably a bad thing for his outlook.
WR Laquon Treadwell: It was great to see Treadwell have a career year last season with 33 receptions for 434 yards and a score, and he was able to earn the trust of Trevor Lawrence. The former first-rounder appears to be towards the bottom of the depth chart, but building on last season is possible if he gets a shot at extended snaps.
TE Evan Engram: Engram gets a chance to revive his career after signing with Jacksonville as a part of the franchise’s offseason spending spree, and he should be the clear No. 1 tight end over Dan Arnold with a $9-million salary on a one-year deal. The former Giant remains one of the NFL’s fastest tight ends, and Doug Pederson’s success featuring Zach Ertz in Philadelphia is a plus. He’s only had ten touchdowns over the past four seasons, but Engram returning to rookie form when he had six scores would be big for his redraft value.
TE Dan Arnold: Again, the Jaguars spent money to bring in Evan Engram as a free agent, but Arnold will make his case for playing time based on his connection with Trevor Lawrence and having the size advantage at six-foot-six. Last season, Arnold had a stretch with Jacksonville of 60+ receiving yards in four-of-five games, and Engram’s issues with inconsistency might put him back into the starting role at some point.
TE Luke Farrell: Farrell was an Urban Meyer favorite having played for him at Ohio State, and it’s fair to wonder if he’s on the roster bubble after seven receptions for 56 yards (in 15 games) as a rookie. If he opens the year as the No. 3 tight end, Farrell would be reliant on touchdowns—having caught just four scores across four seasons with the Buckeyes.
Other Notes
Best 2022 value: RB Travis Etienne (FantasyPros ECR: RB23)
We’d say Etienne is looking pretty healthy at this point, and his combination of upside (based on big-play ability) and floor (based on pass-catching ability) makes him a highly recommended target. Proving himself a capable option in short-yardage situations—which we think he can do—could lead to Etienne shattering his current ranking.
Best dynasty investment: RB Travis Etienne
Etienne was both a home-run threat as a runner and tough cover as a pass-catcher coming out of Clemson—with Alvin Kamara and Chris Johnson being among the best player comparisons for him. We don’t want to give away our dynasty rankings for free, but Etienne should arguably be ranked as an RB1.
Stat to know
Travis Etienne averaged 7.2 yards per carry, 11.3 yards per reception, and scored 78 total touchdowns in 55 career games at Clemson.
