The calendar turns to March tomorrow, and the NFL’s new league year will begin before we know it. This week’s Top Ten Tuesday highlights the top storylines to follow for the 2023 NFL offseason.
10. When does Bijan Robinson go?
Texas running back Bijan Robinson is a highly exciting talent in this year’s draft, and the question is maybe not so much as where he goes but when he goes. Robinson is a consensus top-ten player in the 2023 class, and there seems to be a realistic chance he’s taken in the top ten. While Bijan probably won’t go in the top five like Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Saquon Barkley in recent years, he might be the first top-ten selection at the position since Barkley in 2018. The Lions, Falcons, and Eagles are three teams currently in the top ten that might have a need at running back.
9. NFC East rosters
The NFC champion Eagles have a host of free agents they’ll likely attempt to retain, but they do have a couple of first-round picks (one from the Saints) to add more talent to the roster. The Giants and Cowboys are also intriguing interesting the offseason, with uncertainty on star players. New York is expected to keep quarterback Daniel Jones via either the franchise tag or a long-term extension, but Saquon Barkley appears set to test free agency. And for the Cowboys, Tony Pollard can become a free agent if he’s not franchise tagged, but Dallas must figure out what they’re doing with Ezekiel Elliott and his huge contract.
8. Contract extensions for star QBs
Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts are all eligible for contract extensions this offseason The Bengals, Dolphins, and Bengals all can pick up the fifth-year options for Burrow, Tua, and Herbert respectively, keeping them under contract through the 2024 season. But they’d obviously like to keep all three guys long-term (for Miami, with Tua’s health cooperating). Taken in the second round, Hurts does not have a fifth-year option, so he’s now suddenly entering a contract year after his outstanding 2022 campaign. For Burrow and Hurts in particular, we’ll see if they take any slight discounts to help retain other players (like Tee Higgins) on their rosters.
7. How does Buffalo improve?
A healthy Von Miller coming back at some point in 2023 will give the Bills an obvious jolt, but it still feels like they need to add more to stay on the same level as Kansas City and Cincinnati in the AFC. Whether that’s beefing up the offensive line (probably the best path), adding another playmaker at receiver (Odell Beckham Jr. has long been rumored), acquiring an elite running back (Derrick Henry has been rumored, though it’s difficult to see the Titans wanting to deal him), the offense in particular needs to surround Josh Allen with more.
6. The draft’s quarterbacks
Alabama’s Bryce Young is expected to go No. 1 in this year’s draft (more on the top pick below), but it gets more interesting after that at the game’s most important position. Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud has been the consensus second quarterback (with some even seeing him as the top guy over Young), but Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis are both seen as high-upside guys. Richardson doesn’t have a ton of experience, but he’s a dual threat with a rocket arm and tremendous running ability—he might be a top-ten lock if he impresses teams in meetings and puts on a show at the Combine.
5. The 49ers quarterback situation
With surgery delayed, the 2023 status of promising second-year quarterback Brock Purdy remains uncertain as things currently stand. Both he and former third overall pick Trey Lance are coming back from injury this offseason, and the expectation is that there will be a quarterback competition this summer for the starting job in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. It’s obviously a big storyline for the NFC’s runner-up from the past two seasons. And if Tom Brady suddenly gets the itch to continue playing? You’d have to think there’s a chance San Francisco tries to convince him to join the talented squad.
4. Who trades for the top pick?
The Bears are considered likely to trade out of the No. 1 overall pick, and there figures to be at least a few teams interested in moving up the board to the top spot in the draft. Unless he planned it as a very convincing smokescreen, Colts owner Jim Irsay might have revealed that his team wants to draft Bryce Young. Indy is at the No. 4 pick and has the assets to make a move. The division rival Texans are at No. 2, so they can give the Bears the opportunity to definitely select the top player on their board by trading back just one spot. Then there are more sneaky teams like the Raiders, Falcons, Panthers, and Titans that might look to make a bigger move up the board to secure Young or whoever they consider the top signal caller in this year’s class.
3. Derek Carr’s free agency
Because the free agency tour has already started, it’s a separate storyline from the other quarterback movement this offseason. But Derek Carr is a very capable veteran quarterback option that is free to sign with any team weeks ahead of free agency kicking off, and he’s meeting with teams again this week—the Saints, Jets, and Panthers as the known options. The longtime Raiders starter is thought of highly around the league, and he’s getting star type treatment while looking for his next team fit.
2. Quarterback movement
Aside from Carr, there is the potential for a deep free agent class (barring the franchise tag on a couple of them) that includes Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Geno Smith, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Andy Dalton, Mike White, Jacoby Brissett, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, Taylor Heinicke, and Mason Rudolph. Not close to all those guys will get starting gigs, but backup quarterback is also highly important—and Jones, Jimmy G, and Geno are all locks for starting jobs. The quarterback movement via free agency doesn’t even mention the status of Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson, which are perhaps the top two storylines to watch this offseason from a player personnel perspective.
1. Commanders ownership
However, the biggest storyline to watch this offseason is that of the ownership of the Washington Commanders. Three different reports, including one last night from Jeff Bezos’ Washington Post, say that Bezos has been shut out from bidding on the historic franchise. And now there’s obvious fear that Daniel Snyder will just keep the team despite exploring a sale, as other bids haven’t reached his asking price. The league will hope this doesn’t get messy, but things are uncertain right now—and perhaps Bezos comes through in the end and Snyder is just trying to get as much out of him as he can.