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Player Outlooks (2022)
QB Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa gets a lot of unnecessary hate for a quarterback with a 13-8 career record behind what was a very shaky offensive line, but everything is in place for him to silence the critics following an offseason of headlining additions for Miami—from gamebreaker Tyreek Hill to left tackle Terron Armstead to new head coach Mike McDaniel. Overall, Tua is a very accurate passer, and the increased firepower will hopefully lead to big things in 2022. He should be ranked as a borderline top-15 option in redraft leagues.
RB Chase Edmonds: The signing of Sony Michel late in the spring was a ding on Edmonds’ outlook, but the contracts of Miami’s acquisitions shouldn’t be ignored—with the former Cardinal getting a two-year, $12.1-million deal (including $6.1 million guaranteed), while Raheem Mostert was given $1 million guaranteed, and Michel less than that. Edmonds also brings the best pass-catching profile of the group with a 53-catch season already under his belt, and he’s scored five touchdowns in two of his four seasons despite never being the lead guy. We’re still expecting a career year for Edmonds in Miami.
RB Raheem Mostert: When on the field, the upside for Mostert is very high based on his pure speed when he gets into open space. The problem is he’s entering his age-30 campaign, has only played more than 11 games in a season once throughout his career, and will be sharing a backfield with Edmonds and Sony Michel this year. The early quarter of the season could be very telling for Mostert and the backfield in general as the Dolphins take on four top teams in the conference (v NE, @ BAL, v BUF, @ CIN).
RB Sony Michel: A late-August addition for the Rams last year, Michel emerged to lead the backfield with 229 touches, and we’d argue he was the unsung hero of their championship team. In the final six games of the regular season (following a three-game losing streak), Michel averaged 21.5 attempts and 90.0 rushing yards per game to essentially get LA’s offense on track before the playoffs. Now in Miami, Michel should handle a chunk of early-down work, and he’s a great late-round target in both redraft and best ball formats.
RB Myles Gaskin: We were never sold on Gaskin last year because he was too dependent on volume for a team that has clearly wanted to upgrade their backfield—which happened this offseason following three additions. Now, he’s firmly on the roster bubble and might need a change of scenery to stabilize his redraft value by finding a No. 2 job with another squad.
WR Tyreek Hill: Projecting an increase in production for Hill after leaving Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t be wise, but there is still massive, week-winning upside every time he steps on the field. Tua Tagovailoa has shown he can connect with high-powered playmakers on the outside dating back to his time at Alabama, and Hill should see an increase in carries with the potential to play the “Deebo role” in Mike McDaniel’s offense. The former Chief remains a player to target in Round 2.
WR Jaylen Waddle: Excluding tight end Mike Gesicki, Waddle was basically the only constant among the skill-position players in Miami last season, and that led to finishing No. 11 in the NFL in targets (140) and No. 8 in receptions (104) for 2021. Investors had nothing to complain about in terms of production for the then-rookie wideout, but we’re hoping the addition of Tyreek Hill allows the speedster to run more vertical routes as opponents are forced to cover every bit of green between the lines versus Miami. Waddle should be drafted as a high-upside WR2.
WR Cedrick Wilson: Wilson is coming off a breakout season in Dallas (45/602/6 line with 9.9 yards per target), and the Dolphins gave him a three-year, $22-million deal to be their No. 3 wideout. We expect the offense will funnel receiver targets heavily through Hill/Waddle, but Wilson can be a productive fantasy option if you pick your spots to use him in deeper leagues.
WR Trent Sherfield: Sherfield knows Mike McDaniel’s offense from their time together in San Francisco, and he’s a player we are high on in terms of talent. While there might not be a lot of opportunities for the second-stringers with everyone healthy, Sherfield should be watched in the preseason to see if there is clarity on the WR4 job ahead of Preston Williams and rookie Erik Ezukanma.
WR Preston Williams: He went for a 32/428/3 line in just eight games as an undrafted rookie in 2019, but Williams has been limited to 24 receptions since then, and now he’s facing stiff competition to not only earn a role, but also make the roster. The selection of six-foot-three Erik Ezukanma in the fourth round will result in Williams being pushed as a big-bodied target vying for snaps on the perimeter.
WR Erik Ezukanma: The No. 125 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Ezukanma is a good-sized target that can also make some plays as an on-the-ground possession receiver or with the ball in his hands. He will likely be stuck behind Cedrick Wilson for the No. 3 job this year, but the rookie is a quality dynasty prospect in an ideal long-term spot.
WR Lynn Bowden Jr.: Bowden was shelved for all of last season due to a hamstring injury, and he appears to be on the outside looking in for a roster spot. The former third-round pick is a playmaker with the ball in his hands, so he’ll need to impress himself upon the new coaching staff—including potentially on special teams.
TE Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has a solid season in 2021, finishing fourth in targets (111), fifth in receptions (73), and eighth in receiving yards (780) among all tight ends. The problem was scoring only two touchdowns, which simply should not have been the case for an extremely athletic, big-bodied target that excels playing above the rim. The hope is that Mike McDaniel knows how to better feature him, so Gesicki making a leap similar to Darren Waller in the scoring department (three touchdowns in 2019 followed by nine scores in 2020) is well within the range of outcomes based on his talent.
TE Hunter Long: Long would have been a big beneficiary of Gesicki walking this offseason, but the starter being brought back on the franchise tag leaves the second-year tight end competing for snaps behind him. Although he only caught one pass in seven games as a rookie, now is the time to invest in Long as a dynasty asset.
TEs Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen: Smythe was very efficient as the No. 2 tight end for the Dolphins in 2021—catching 34-of-41 targets for 357 yards. The problem for the tight ends on the roster (including Shaheen) was a lack of touchdowns (the pairing combined for zero), which limits their fantasy appeal.
Other Notes
Best 2022 value: RB Sony Michel (FantasyPros ECR: RB52)
Michel has been a key member of two Super Bowl teams through four seasons, and there is a possibility he leads the backfield in carries with Chase Edmonds being more of the receiving option and Raheem Mostert handling change-of-pace work. Especially in best ball formats where the weeks with a touchdown could make him worthy of a start, we like Michel as a late-round target.
Best dynasty investment: TE Mike Gesicki
Again, a lack of touchdowns held Gesicki back in 2021, but he’s a tremendous talent and previously had 11 combined touchdowns in 2019 and 2020. Also, the receptions (22 > 51 > 53 > 73) and receiving yards (202 > 570 > 703 > 780) have climbed in every year since entering the league. Gesicki could be viewed as a top-five dynasty option—compared to his TE12 consensus ranking—if the numbers match his potential this season.
Stat to know
Jaylen Waddle averaged just 9.8 yards per reception as a rookie. He averaged 18.9 yards per reception in three seasons at Alabama.
