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Player Outlooks (2023)
QB Lamar Jackson: Jackson will be throwing a lot more in new offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s system, and the supporting cast being elevated should result in a monster campaign from the former NFL MVP. For those concerned about the rushing production falling off, we’d anticipate Jackson still running quite a bit and being more efficient with opponents forced to cover more of the field compared to the previous run-heavy system. Jackson has a very strong case to be drafted as the overall QB2 with a sky-high ceiling.
RB: J.K. Dobbins: Dobbins rushed 70 times for 459 yards (6.6 YPC) over his final five games of last season (including one playoff outing in which he had a 4/43/1 receiving line), and he’s now averaged 6.0 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per carry in two NFL seasons that sandwich a missed 2021 campaign. If he is healthy and the Baltimore offense is able to meet expectations as a group, Dobbins should get plenty of touchdown opportunities and could provide borderline RB1/RB2 value—though he might be best drafted as a mid-to-low RB2 based on the risks.
RB Gus Edwards: Todd Monken weaving the new spread concepts with between-the-tackles carries for Edwards will be interesting, but the big-bodied runner is used to facing stacked boxes, so the change can be a positive for him if he gets enough touches. Through four seasons (like Dobbins, he missed 2021), Edwards has averaged 5.2 yards per carry with a 17-game pace of 845 rushing yards across 52 outings.
RB Justice Hill: The production for Hill has been limited since entering the league as a fourth-round pick in 2019, but the Ravens like him as their No. 3 back—and it’s notable that head coach John Harbaugh said Hill “ran like a star running back” with six carries for 60 yards in a Week 3 win before an injury derailed things in Week 4. We’ll see if he can at least earn a pass-catching role for the revamped attack.
WR Odell Beckham Jr.: Expecting Beckham to suddenly be the player that took the league by storm from 2014 through 2016 would be a mistake, but he’ll be a featured piece in a new pass-slanted offense for the Ravens—and OBJ was great the last time we saw him during the Rams’ championship run. A current consensus ranking of WR61 feels crazy for a player of Beckham’s talent (and popularity), so those willing to roll the dice could get a home-run value if he stays healthy.
WR Rashod Bateman: Limited to six appearances last year as he dealt with a foot injury that eventually required surgery, Bateman flashed the potential that made him a first-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft but has now had two fairly significant injuries in two seasons. Lamar Jackson having trust in Bateman and essentially calling him their No. 1 receiver helps, though, and he can still breakout with an impressive blend of size, strength, craftiness, and speed. The pure upside is the question on an offense that loaded up at wide receiver this offseason.
WR Zay Flowers: Flowers was the clear first-round target for Baltimore with the team apparently telling him they were drafting him at the Shrine Bowl, and he brings a vertical skillset and explosiveness to pair with very good possession qualities. But will the production match the talent in Year 1? Flowers might be too much of a role player if everyone stays healthy, so we’d recommend him as an upside bench stash at this point in the summer.
WR Nelson Agholor: Agholor being used more on vertical routes would be the best thing for his fantasy ceiling, and Todd Monken surely had input on the signing with an idea of how to use a player that once caught nine passes in the Super Bowl. The additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers drained his outlook, but Agholor had a 48/896/8 line in Las Vegas as a complementary option, so he can still be a redraft factor if everything breaks right.
WR Devin Duvernay: A Pro Bowl returner in each of the past two seasons, Duvernay has shown talent on offense—but saw less than 50 targets in all three NFL seasons and will now be pushed down the depth chart as the team finally expands the passing attack. Duvernay might be viewed more as insurance for Zay Flowers than anything else with limited opportunities as a standalone option.
WR James Proche II: Proche has struggled to earn a significant role with the Ravens, but we are high on his ability, and a change of scenery would be best for his outlook. Fortunately, the league isn’t lacking for teams with some questionable depth at wide receiver, and a team like Philadelphia or Atlanta could be good fits if Proche finds a new home before Week 1.
WR Tylan Wallace: Another young option that hasn’t made much of an impact to begin his career, Wallace might be boosted by a new system—one that will be closer to what he played in at Oklahoma State. He might be blocked by Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor for now, but Wallace still carries appeal as a dynasty asset with downfield ability.
TE Mark Andrews: There are a lot of mouths to feed on the Baltimore offense based on the playmakers added this offseason, but Andrews previously broke out with a 64/852/10 line on just 98 targets when Lamar Jackson was named NFL MVP in 2019—and he’ll carry the most trust of any pass-catcher. That includes in the red zone where Andrews started last season with five touchdowns in six games, and reaching double-digit scores for the second time in his career is the best chance for Andrews to reclaim the overall TE1 spot.
TE Isaiah Likely: In three games where he played more than 50% of the team’s offensive snaps as a rookie, Likely went for lines of 6/77/1, 1/24/1 (against the stingy Saints), and 8/103, so he’s already proven himself versus NFL competition and would be at least a top-eight option at tight end if he were to draw starts in 2023. As a standalone option, Likely might not be reliable enough to feel good about considering the surplus at wide receiver for the Ravens.
TE Charlie Kolar: Kolar was actually drafted ahead of Likely last year, and he should see snaps in 2023 after a hernia injury that required surgery limited him to just two games as a rookie. A big, fluid tight end with soft hands, Kolar could be a factor in the red zone.
Other Notes
Best IDP value: CB Rock Ya-Sin
Roquan Smith is worth the investment at the top of IDP boards, but we’ll go with a deeper value in Ya-Sin—who will be battling to start opposite Marlon Humphrey and should find himself targeted quite a bit. As a press cornerback that can also tackle, Ya-Sin could be coached up to take the ball away more to become a complete cornerback (two interceptions through four seasons).
Stat to know (via draft guide)
Lamar Jackson had 3,500+ passing yards, 27+ passing touchdowns, 1,500+ rushing yards, and 18+ rushing touchdowns in each of his final two college seasons when he operated a spread offensive system.
