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Player Outlooks (2024)
QB Josh Allen: The Buffalo offense will look different in 2024 with Stefon Diggs gone, but Allen is still expected to be a high-end QB1 worth drafting early—and offensive coordinator Joe Brady will have had an entire offseason to install his offense. At wide receiver, a committee-type approach could make the Bills more difficult defend, and Dalton Kincaid being ready to be a featured weapon still gives them star power to support Allen. Coming off a year in which he rushed for 15 touchdowns, the superstar quarterback will have a chip on his shoulder, and we’re expecting another MVP-level season.
RB James Cook: Cook is a somewhat tricky player to rank, as he’s had some huge games, saw increased production/efficiency when Joe Brady took over last year, and is the no-doubt lead back in a high-powered offense. On the other hand, his touchdown potential isn’t as high as others in the RB2 range, and the selection of Ray Davis in the fourth round shouldn’t go overlooked considering the rookie’s effectiveness as a pass-catcher—which could cut into Cook’s outlook there. The workload in nine games under Brady last year (20.1 touches per game, including playoffs) is reason to be optimistic, though.
RB Ray Davis: As stated, Davis is a very capable pass-catcher, and despite being more of a power back, he had seven receiving scores last year for Kentucky—including an ability to win downfield; that being an area where James Cook had some frustrating drops is notable, and Davis could realistically earn some short-yardage touches to have standalone FLEX appeal in addition to handcuff value as a rookie.
RB Ty Johnson: Johnson emerged down the stretch last season and ended up seeing eight touches in both playoff games for Buffalo, but even a full-blown committee would probably make him more of a spark-plug type that provides a real-life impact rather than a strong candidate for FLEX value. A blowout win over the Cowboys was Johnson’s only outing with double-digit touches in 2023.
WR Keon Coleman: The Bills are gearing up for a very balanced, spread-it-out attack that will be difficult to defend with Josh Allen at the controls, but Coleman’s size and skillset sets him apart from the shiftier guys (Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir) or the bigger targets (Marquez Valdes-Scantling and others) being both very fluid and having the ability to play above the rim or stretch the field. While he’ll most likely be a touchdown-dependent FLEX option, Coleman has the upside for more if the offense becomes more focused because he’s too good to not command heavier targets.
WR Curtis Samuel: Buffalo signing Samuel to a three-year, $24-million contract this offseason was a bit of a surprise, but general manager Brandon Beane was in Carolina when he was drafted, and the former second-rounder had the best season of his career when Joe Brady was with the Panthers in 2020—resulting in 77 receptions, 851 receiving yards, 41 carries, 200 rushing yards, and five total touchdowns. Being in that ballpark would be ideal for fantasy owners, and Samuel could be the most stable pass-catcher for the Bills with a stable weekly role with manufactured touches.
WR Khalil Shakir: Shakir only saw 45 targets last year, but his production was off the charts with an insane 14.3 yards per target over his final 11 appearances when Buffalo got him more involved. Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, and Curtis Samuel all staying healthy and reaching their potential could limit Shakir’s ceiling, but he’s a well-rounded player in an offense led by Josh Allen.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: You can say what you want about Valdes-Scantling’s overall production, but he’s shown an ability to step up in big games—a factor that Buffalo surely considered when signing him late into free agency. Although MVS might not be a complete roster lock, we’d anticipate him settling in as a rotational deep threat, and being paired with Josh Allen gives him a high weekly ceiling if able to connect on the deep ball.
WR KJ Hamler: The final two spots at wide receiver are more unsettled with training camp and preseason action being the deciding factor, but Hamler has been highlighted this offseason after signing in late January. The former Penn State standout has outstanding speed to stretch the defense, and wideouts from Robert Foster to Stefon Diggs have been completely unlocked catching passes from Josh Allen, so Hamler is at least an interesting dynasty investment.
WRs Chase Claypool and Mack Hollins: There are others that will push for a roster spot, but Claypool and Hollins are the guys with the most likely path towards becoming factors from a fantasy perspective. For Claypool, he seems to be humbled after falling out of favor in Pittsburgh and then never really seeing the field for Chicago or Miami, but he scored 11 touchdowns as a rookie and obviously has talent. Showing he can make an impact on special teams will be key to beat out the experienced Hollins.
TE Dalton Kincaid: Those who follow our real-life NFL Draft scouting reports on know how highly we view Kincaid, and the hope is that he turns into Buffalo’s version of Travis Kelce as a close-to-unstoppable weapon at tight end. As a rookie, Kincaid had started to catch fire with consecutive lines of 8/75, 5/65/1, 10/81, and 5/51/1 before former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and Buffalo reigned in the passing attack down the stretch, so he can be re-unleashed in Year 2 as the focal-point through the air with Stefon Diggs and his 160 targets from last season now in Houston.
TE Dawson Knox: Knox needs to bounce back after he struggled to begin the 2023 season and was almost a non-factor at times with Dalton Kincaid emerging—as he averaged just 5.2 yards per target on the campaign. Still, the touchdown potential can get him back on the fantasy radar in more of a complementary role, and he had a combined 15 touchdowns in 2021 and 2022. Consider him a low-end TE2 option that’ll be dependent on finding the end zone.
Other Notes
Best IDP value: S Mike Edwards
Buffalo could still bring back Micah Hyde if he continues his career, but they’ll have a remade group at safety if not, and Edwards could be an impact player with a chance to be a full-time starter after he was more of a rotational piece for the Bucs and Chiefs. In his most career action two years ago in Tampa Bay, Edwards totaled 82 tackles in 13 games, and he’s always flashed playmaking ability—including four defensive touchdowns over the past three seasons.
Stat to know (via draft guide)
After missing Week 6 last year, Dalton Kincaid returned to have a season-long pace of 84 receptions (on 108 targets) for 862 yards and four touchdowns over his final 13 appearances (including playoffs).