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Player Outlooks (2024)
QB C.J. Stroud: As a rookie, Stroud showed pinpoint accuracy all over the field and played with extreme confidence in and out of the pocket, so having the same structure in place—but improved with Stefon Diggs now in town—makes him a borderline top-five option for 2024. If there is a concern to point out based on last year, it’s that Stroud was boosted by a couple of week-winning fantasy performances (41.8 points and 30.86 points) to offset some of his quieter games, and we’ll see how opponents counter Bobby Slowik’s offense after an offseason to study it. The overall stability for Houston and talent shown by Stroud should still have fantasy owners very optimistic about building on last year.
RB Joe Mixon: Mixon was a consistent workhorse throughout his Cincinnati career, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down with an average of 1,394.7 total yards and 12.3 total touchdowns over the past three years—so the production should remain high entering his age-28 season after the Texans stepped in to acquire him in a trade. Being an excellent pass-catcher and reliable in pass protection only helps Mixon’s outlook for fantasy purposes, and Houston should have a better offensive line than what he had in Cincinnati as another bonus for his RB2 candidacy. We’ll see if Dameon Pierce can re-emerge, but Mixon is set up to be the lead back for a high-powered offense.
RB Dameon Pierce: We and many others pegged Pierce as a Year 2 breakout candidate, but he really struggled to begin the season with 109 carries for 327 yards (3.0 YPC) and one touchdown across his first seven games before getting injured, and he didn’t even see an offensive snap by the end of the season as Houston lost in the Divisional Round. It sounds like the Texans expect Pierce to be a factor this year, and his football character should make him determined to bounce back—making him a top handcuff with a chance for some standalone appeal.
RBs Dare Ogunbowale and Jawhar Jordan: Another bonus for Dameon Pierce is that Houston lacks proven depth at running back, but Ogunbowale has shown he can contribute in the passing game (not to mention as a kicker in a pinch), while Jordan was taken in the sixth round as a tough runner that packs a punch for his size (not unlike Pierce).
WR Stefon Diggs: The Bills did their best to keep the drama to a minimum, but a tremendous run for Diggs in Buffalo finally ended after a tumultuous calendar year, and wanting the ball—with more issues about how the offense ran than any beef with Josh Allen—seemed to be the root of the discontent. Houston is an interesting fit with Nico Collins breaking out last year and Tank Dell looking like a star before suffering a broken leg, but they surely know that Diggs needs to be involved for him to be happy, and Bobby Slowik showed he can design plays with the best of them. If he hasn’t lost a step (turning 31 in November), Diggs could be the preferred wideout for C.J. Stroud and fantasy owners.
WR Nico Collins: Collins is coming off a breakout season as the clear No. 1 option for the Texans, but is he due for a repeat with Stefon Diggs now in town? Although the Michigan product only needed 109 targets to finish as a top-ten fantasy option last year, it’s possible opponents have a better idea of how to defend Houston’s offense in 2024, and the huge games—all of which came with at least nine targets—could be less frequent due to the acquisitions of Diggs and Joe Mixon adding more star power to the attack. If the shot plays don’t hit as frequently and the others stay healthy, Collins could be more of a low-end WR2/FLEX; but he can certainly rise based on how things look in training camp.
WR Tank Dell: A broken leg that ended Dell’s rookie campaign was evidence of the downside for the 165-pound wideout, but he was absolutely electric before going down—compiling a season-long pace of 80 receptions, 1,205 receiving yards, and 12 receiving touchdowns in ten healthy games. The system certainly catered to the Dell’s strengths in Year 1, and he showed he will take advantage when given at least a handful of opportunities with lines of 7/72/1, 5/145/1, 6/114/2, 6/56/1, 8/149/1, and 5/50/1 in games with five or more targets (good for a whopping 20.3 fantasy points per game). We’d anticipate volatility, but the chemistry with C.J. Stroud could allow Dell to pick up where he left off despite the presence of Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins.
WR Robert Woods: The top trio at wide receiver is set in Houston, but C.J. Stroud has said he feels like the team has five No. 1 wideouts, and Woods saw heavy playing time last season. However, the veteran has not been very productive since leaving the Rams with season lines of 53/527/2 and 40/426/1 over the past two years, and the Texans probably value his leadership more than anything else at this point in his career.
WR John Metchie III: If there is a player that will create some disruption among the top trio for Houston, we would put our money on Metchie—who has received plenty of praise from the organization this offseason as someone ready to make a leap. Remember, the former Alabama standout missed his entire rookie campaign while battling leukemia, so he will likely be feeling more like himself after his return in 2023 as a pass-catcher with tremendous quickness and ability as a route runner.
WR Noah Brown: Injuries derailed things, but Brown was scorching hot for a brief stretch last season with lines of 6/153/1 and 7/172 in consecutive games, so earning a sizable role this summer is a real possibility considering his production and connection with C.J. Stroud. And if he were to be thrusted into increased playing time, Brown is someone fantasy owners might be able to reliably pick up and stream.
TE Dalton Schultz: Fresh off signing a three-year, $36-million extension, Schultz was a steady target for C.J. Stroud last season, and the team views him as a critical piece of the offensive core as they look to compete for titles with their quarterback on a rookie contract. The issue with his fantasy outlook for this season is that often times it was mostly Nico Collins and Schultz as the main contributors in 2023, but now Stefon Diggs comes over from Buffalo, Tank Dell is healthy, and Joe Mixon leads a boosted running game. A history of success finding the end zone for Schultz—with 18 scores over the past three years, including a peak of eight with the Cowboys in 2021—is his best chance of repeating as a low-end TE1 option after last year’s TE11 finish.
TE Brevin Jordan: Jordan won’t turn 24 until next month and is someone we really like based on his ability—but he runs into the same problem that was just alluded to for Dalton Schultz in that his path to significant targets will be hindered by how loaded Houston now is offensively. If Schultz were to go down, Jordan would at least carry some streaming appeal as a TE2.
TE Cade Stover: A fourth-round pick in April’s draft, Stover is a very tough tight end that has a built-in connection with C.J. Stroud from their time together at Ohio State—and the franchise is probably counting on him to be the long-term complementary option at the position. From a fantasy perspective, that means needing to catch fire scoring touchdowns, and Stover might not see enough snaps to be considered until 2025.
Other Notes
Best IDP value: DT Denico Autry
Autry has been one of the most underrated pass rushers over the past few years, as he’s recorded sack totals 7.5, 9.0, 8.0, and 11.5 over the past four seasons—all of which have come since turning 30. With the career-best number being his most recent campaign, Autry has shown no signs of slowing down and will now play between Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. to take advantage of one-on-one opportunities to get after the quarterback.
Stat to know (via draft guide)
Including playoffs, Stefon Diggs averaged just 5.3 yards per target over his final ten games last year.