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Player Outlooks (2024)
QB Anthony Richardson: It seems the bandwagon is filling up quickly for Richardson, and to put things in perspective, he had four rushing touchdowns in less than four full games as a rookie, and the comparison for him in terms of play style is probably Justin Fields—who was a fantasy force in Chicago. We believe the difference is Richardson has a better natural feel for playing quarterback (he was our No. 5 overall prospect last year, while Fields was our No. 31 overall prospect in 2021), and he also has a much better support system around him in Indy. Staying healthy is key, but if he does, Richardson has top-fantasy-scorer upside this season.
RB Jonathan Taylor: Taylor is one of a few options with a case to be the second running back off the board, and he averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game over the final eight appearances last year—which would have made him the overall RB4 on the season. That was while he wasn’t even at his best while missing time with a thumb injury on an offense that didn’t have Anthony Richardson, so getting back to 2021 levels (with 2,171 total yards and 17 touchdowns) is certainly possible for Taylor as a superstar runner entering his age-25 campaign.
RB Trey Sermon: Sermon apparently separated himself in OTAs as the clear backup to Jonathan Taylor, and that’s not at all surprising based on the talent he showed dating back to his days at Ohio State. The NFL opportunities haven’t quite been there with Sermon bouncing from the 49ers to the Eagles to the Colts through three seasons, but he’s averaged a respectable 4.4 yards per carry and shined in a win over the Steelers last December with 17 attempts for 88 yards.
RBs Tyler Goodson and Evan Hull: The Colts could end up keeping four running backs on the roster, but if not, Goodson and Hull will be battling for the final spot—which could lead to some work on passing downs. While most expect Hull to have the edge (and he might after Indy selected him in the fifth round last year), Goodson is someone we have liked since he was at Iowa, and he showed well with 13 carries for 87 yards (6.7 YPC) in 2023.
WR Michael Pittman Jr.: Pittman was fed 156 targets last year in his first season under Shane Steichen, but Indy’s head coach has already said there will be more balance with Josh Downs entering Year 2 and freaky second-rounder Adonai Mitchell joining the team—so he might not be given 11+ targets in over half of his games as was the case in 2023. Of course, Pittman will still be a key offensive piece after signing a three-year, $70-million extension, and he should remain a solid WR2 that needs a breakout in the touchdown department (15 scores through four seasons) to reach new heights.
WR Josh Downs: Downs quietly had a solid rookie campaign, and he got off to a very hot start with a combined 40 receptions (on 56 targets) for 473 yards and two touchdowns across eight games in September and October. The production would have been good for an 85/1,005/4 line across an entire season, but Downs fell off over the final two months with a drop in efficiency and overall numbers, so he’ll try to put it all together for an entire season with Anthony Richardson back and the offense maybe opening up in Year 2 under Shane Steichen. Consider him a late-round target with a boost in full PPR formats.
WR Adonai Mitchell: Mitchell was on the board for Indianapolis in Round 2 due to general concerns about focus/character rather than teams not believing in his talent, but Colts general manager Chris Ballard went on a rant following the selection about the media being irresponsible in their reporting about the former Texas standout—so Indy clearly had no questions about him. The path towards immediately becoming a star is blocked by being on a run-heavy offense with Michael Pittman Jr. Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce at wide receiver, but all the tools are there for Mitchell.
WR Alec Pierce: We weren’t as high on Pierce as others coming out of Cincinnati or over the past two seasons, but perhaps he can put everything together in Year 3—and hopeful stability under center with Anthony Richardson staying healthy can boost those odds. Of course, the room is now crowded with Adonai Mitchell likely taking a bunch of snaps from Pierce as a vertical threat, so it’s a position to watch in August.
WR Anthony Gould: The Colts selected Gould in Round 5 as an explosive player with 4.39 speed, and his ability as a returner was immediately talked up by the team—so that’s where we can expect him to primarily contribute. At the same time, Gould shouldn’t be discounted from turning into a big-time offensive weapon if he impresses enough with the ball in his hands, and dynasty owners should keep an eye on his development this summer.
TE Jelani Woods: A potential four-man committee at tight end for the Colts makes all of them difficult to trust, but Woods—a six-foot-seven target for 4.61 speed—has the best shot of becoming a difference-maker if he forms a strong connection with Anthony Richardson (particularly in the red zone). Before missing all of last season with injury issues, Woods caught 25 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie.
TE Kylen Granson: The safest bet for a role among the Indy tight ends might be Granson—who has caught 30+ passes in each of the past two seasons and brings more of an on-the-ground skillset to the table. A lack of upside probably makes Jelani Woods the better investment as a target in deeper leagues, though, and Granson has just one touchdown in 45 career games.
TE Mo Alie-Cox: Alie-Cox saw his playing time dip to 38% after playing about 50% of Indy’s offensive snaps in the previous three seasons, and Jelani Woods becoming more of a factor could make him even less of a priority in Shane Steichen’s offense. The veteran does have ten touchdowns over the past three years, so that’s his path towards value in any given week.
TE Will Mallory: A fifth-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Mallory being the youngest of the group—and the only one added since Shane Steichen was hired—is notable, and he showed well as a rookie with 18 receptions for 207 yards, including three games with more than 45 yards. The Colts aren’t expected to rely heavily on the tight ends, but Mallory having a big summer would put him squarely on the redraft radar.
Other Notes
Best IDP value: DE Laiatu Latu
Latu was a top-five prospect for us, and he’s an extremely polished pass rusher that compares to T.J. Watt with the relentlessness to match his ability. The Colts have no shortage of options on the defensive line, but Latu should immediately be their top edge rusher as a threat for double-digit sacks in Year 1, and he also provides versatility.
Stat to know (via draft guide)
In not even 12 full quarters of football last season, Anthony Richardson totaled 72.68 fantasy points—which would be good for a season-long average of 24.2 fantasy points per game; Josh Allen led all fantasy scorers with 23.1 points per game in 2023.