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Player Outlooks (2024)
QB Trevor Lawrence: Jacksonville will look a bit different offensively in 2024 after Calvin Ridley departed in free agency, but the hope is that first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. and former Bills standout Gabe Davis will elevate the receiver play outside the numbers—and Lawrence still has familiar targets in Christian Kirk and Evan Engram to work the middle of the field. We would anticipate the personnel changes allowing Lawrence to be more aggressive on vertical throws, and being more involved as a runner is the key for him to get back into the QB1 ranks. For those who still want more from the former No. 1 overall pick, he won’t turn 25 until October and certainly has superstar potential.
RB Travis Etienne Jr.: Coming off an overall RB3 finish, Etienne could very well make a case to be ranked as a top-five running back this season, and we’ll see if adding the downfield threats at wide receiver opens things up for him after averaging just 3.9 yards per carry in 2023. It’s encouraging that Jacksonville trusted Etienne with heavy workloads at times (most notably, his 30-touch performance in London), and Doug Pederson should continue featuring him in a big year for the team.
RB Tank Bigsby: The Jaguars have expressed a desire for Bigsby to get more work in 2024, but he struggled as a rookie with 50 carries for 132 yards (2.6 YPC) and two touchdowns—failing to separate from D’Ernest Johnson for the No. 2 role. Although we liked Bigsby’s outlook as a power complement coming out of Auburn, the offensive line needs to be better, and it’s important to remember that Doug Pederson has always liked to throw the ball.
RB D’Ernest Johnson: Johnson had a similar lack of success on the ground last season with 41 carries for 108 yards (2.6 YPC), but he was highly efficient in the passing game by catching ten passes (on 12 targets) for 140 yards. If Tank Bigsby doesn’t have a great summer, Johnson becoming the preferred handcuff is very possible, and he’s shined when given heavy workloads with the Browns back in 2021.
WR Christian Kirk: Kirk has joked about being overlooked with all the wide receiver movement in the AFC South this offseason, and he has a point after going for an 84/1,108/8 line in his first year with the Jaguars and then having a 17-game pace of 94/1,278/5 in ten healthy games following a one-catch performance in last year’s opener. So, the numbers didn’t really decline in 2023 despite the presence of Calvin Ridley, and Jacksonville adding both Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. should be positive for Kirk’s outlook this year with the duo opening things up underneath. Consider the former Texas A&M star an underrated low-end WR2/FLEX with the trust of Trevor Lawrence.
WR Gabe Davis: The stock of Davis took a hit when the Jaguars selected Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but they first signed Davis to a three-year, $39-million deal in free agency—and maybe a new situation will allow him to be “Big Game Gabe” more consistently. However, leaving Josh Allen probably won’t result in a noticeable increase in production considering pass-catchers historically have their best seasons playing with Buffalo’s quarterback, and Thomas Jr. having an overlapping vertical role could make Davis a boom-or-bust FLEX.
WR Brian Thomas Jr.: Perhaps lost in the hype around Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers is just how good Thomas was in his final season at LSU, and the rookie will be the fast, athletic, and big target on the outside that Trevor Lawrence hasn’t had in his NFL career. The comparison was too lofty to put on him, but Thomas—in terms of play style—has some similarities to all-time great wide receiver Randy Moss, and Jacksonville will use him to run a lot of vertical routes that Moss dominated on. As a rookie, Thomas is expected to be a volatile option for fantasy owners, and the early schedule (@ MIA, v CLE, @ BUF, @ HOU) is tough.
WR Parker Washington: Washington was highlighted by Doug Pederson as a standout at OTAs, and he flashed his ability as a sixth-round rookie—with the best game being a 6/61/1 line in his first extended action (a shootout loss to Cincinnati). The issue is being blocked by Christian Kirk for the slot-heavy role that suits him best, but Washington remains a strong dynasty investment.
WR Devin Duvernay: Duvernay ended up falling out of the rotation at wide receiver for the Ravens last year, but he’s a two-time Pro Bowl punt returner that Jacksonville is counting on to boost their special teams. Offensively, Duvernay can also see some touches similar to Jamal Agnew in recent years—though reliable fantasy value probably wouldn’t happen without a string of injuries.
TE Evan Engram: After finishing the 2022 season with a couple of monster performances down the stretch and then signing a three-year, $41.25-million extension last July, Engram reached new heights with an eye-popping 114 receptions in 2023—which was the second-best number for a tight end in a season behind only Zach Ertz (116). The Jaguars will have Christian Kirk healthy after Engram was really fed with 52 targets in five games without him (resulting in three games with double-digit receptions), but he’s a very safe TE1 option with a case to be a top-five option in full PPR formats.
TE Brenton Strange: Strange caught five passes for 35 yards and a score in 14 games last year, and despite the lack of production, he’s worth mentioning after the Jaguars took him with the No. 61 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. An injury to Evan Engram would likely lead to more reliance on the wideouts, but Strange might carry some TE2 appeal due to the numbers put up by tight ends under Doug Pederson.
Other Notes
Best IDP value: S Darnell Savage
Savage is set to play the slot after signing with Jacksonville—so we would expect a role similar to the one Brian Branch played in Detroit last year, which puts him closer to the action with a chance to rack up the stats. We also believe Josh Allen is worth an early investment, and you can’t go wrong with Foyesade Oluokon with tackle totals of 192, 184, and 173 over the past three years.
Stat to know (via draft guide)
In 29 games since joining the Jaguars, Christian Kirk has averaged a season-long pace of 83 receptions, 1,111 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns.