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Player Outlooks (2024)
QB Aidan O’Connell: Antonio Pierce said that O’Connell earned the right to take the first snap of minicamp last month, and Las Vegas will have the only true quarterback battle of the summer—making preseason action extremely important. The advantage O’Connell has is being under center for big games down the stretch in 2023 when Pierce took over, but there were definite struggles as well, and now he’s learning a new system in Year 2. Even if he wins the starting job, O’Connell won’t be a highly recommended fantasy play.
QB Gardner Minshew: Whether it’s Minshew—signed to a two-year, $25-million deal in the offseason—or Aidan O’Connell under center, the Raiders are expected to be perhaps the most run-heavy team in the league, and the fantasy ceiling will certainly be limited for their quarterback. Even in favorable matchups, Las Vegas would probably prefer to play slow and lean on their defense, so Minshew is best viewed as a game manager that will try not to make a big mistake.
RB Zamir White: White was viewed as an unexciting late-season pickup for fantasy owners last year because he’s more of a throwback runner that didn’t seem to have much upside, but that viewpoint turned out to be a mistake as the old-school approach by Antonio Pierce meant a heavy dose of the ground game. Las Vegas only adding veteran Alexander Mattison and sixth-round pick Dylan Laube to the backfield this offseason locks White into a potential workhorse role, and he will look to pick up where he left off last season with fantasy-point totals of 16.0, 14.5, 13.1, and 12.6 over the final four weeks. Look for “Zeus” to be fed as a volume-based RB2 play.
RB Alexander Mattison: The Vikings installed Mattison as their starter last year after letting Dalvin Cook go, but he struggled with inefficiency and a couple of lost fumbles in key spots—leading to his release in March just a year after signing a two-year extension. Las Vegas is a good landing spot for him to rebound considering how much they want to run the ball and their lack of proven options on the depth chart, but Zamir White should be the unquestioned starter, and we’d expect Mattison to be in a committee with Ameer Abdullah and rookie Dylan Laube if an injury hits. There is also a chance the Raiders add to the backfield either before or during the season if necessary.
RBs Ameer Abdullah and Dylan Laube: Abdullah and Laube will be battling for the top change-of-pace/pass-catching role in Vegas’s backfield, and Zamir White not taking over at the level we expect could open the door for one of them to have solid value in full PPR formats. For now, we wouldn’t expect there to be enough work for either to make much of a fantasy impact, particularly with a couple of top-flight young tight ends.
WR Davante Adams: Adams had one of the best years of his career with a 100/1,516/14 line on a whopping 180 targets in his first season with the Raiders, but 2023 was a huge letdown after Derek Carr was traded—and the quarterback situation appears to be the worst in the league. Last year, the 175 targets for Adams were the second-most of his career, but the floor was dramatically lower than what fantasy owners have come to expect, including a five-game stretch with single-digit fantasy points that surely crushed the playoff hopes of many. For the glass-half-full perspective, Adams still showed his upside as recent as the fantasy championship with 13 receptions for 126 yards and two touchdowns in Week 17 of last season, and you have to think the Raiders will have spent the past few months and the entire summer finding out ways to maximize what they have in the former All-Pro to boost his WR1 candidacy.
WR Jakobi Meyers: The first season for Meyers in Las Vegas was an unquestioned success, and he appeared to have legitimate weekly high-end WR2 value over the first seven weeks by averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game. Most of the production came with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, though, and Meyers averaged just 9.6 fantasy points per game in his final ten outings as he became less of a focus with former head coach Josh McDaniels fired and Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. The Raiders will enter 2024 with even lower expectations for the passing attack, and adding prized rookie tight end Brock Bowers might limit the chances of Meyers getting back to the production he had to begin 2023.
WR Tre Tucker: Antonio Pierce recently talked up Tucker, and the team website for the Raiders said he’s “receiving rave reviews” for his development since his rookie campaign. Consistently connecting on downfield passes could boost him into weekly FLEX value, but Tucker profiles as a player that might be a better real-life option and as low as the sixth or seventh option for the offense.
WR Michael Gallup: Injuries have derailed Gallup with yardage totals of 445, 424, and 418 in his final three seasons with Dallas, and he’s also seen his efficiency drop (11.9 yards per reception and 6.7 yards per target, compared to 15.6 yards per reception and 8.6 yards per target across his first three seasons). Perhaps he will come into camp healthier and re-emerge out the outside, but Gallup isn’t a recommended late-round target at this point.
WR Jalen Guyton: Guyton was brought over with general manager Tom Telesco after spending his first five seasons in Los Angeles, and the Raiders will count on him in a rotational deep threat role—one that led to 15.7 yards per reception with the Chargers. The overall production was more modest with a high of 511 yards (and fewer than 90 yards in three-of-four seasons), so Guyton will need a couple of injuries to have a chance at fantasy appeal in one of the NFL’s worst projected attacks.
TE Brock Bowers: Bowers had standing to be a top-five selection based on talent, but positional value allowed the Raiders to take him with the No. 13 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft—which was a surprise pairing with former Notre Dame star Michael Mayer already on the roster as the No. 35 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, Bowers might be more of an “offensive weapon” than he is a traditional tight end, as the rookie has extreme versatility and is at his best with the ball in his hands, so it’ll be up to the coaching staff to maximize his skillset. Bowers should immediately be a high-end TE2 with upside.
TE Michael Mayer: He wasn’t expected to be a massive contributor as a rookie at a position that usually takes time to produce at (despite the success of Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid), but it’s interesting that Mayer has said he’s personally “flipped the script” with more positivity compared to a season ago when morale wasn’t very high under Josh McDaniels. The Raiders taking Brock Bowers in the first round creates an interesting dynamic at tight end, but Mayer was our No. 17 overall prospect last year a well-rounded option, and he could get most of the in-line snaps. If the quarterback play for the Raiders is better than expected, Mayer has top-15 potential.
Other Notes
Best IDP value: DT Christian Wilkins
The Raiders signed Wilkins to a four-year, $110-million deal with offseason, and he’s expected to be a game-wrecker alongside Maxx Crosby for a defense that wants to pummel the opposition. Unfortunately, you don’t get fantasy points for a player getting under an opponent’s skin, but Wilkins had 9.0 sacks in 2023 and is worth the investment as an interior defensive lineman that can reach close to 100 combined tackles.
Stat to know (via draft guide)
Zamir White averaged 21.0 carries per game over the final four weeks last year, and Josh Jacobs led the NFL in carries per game (17.9) for the entire season.