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Player Outlooks (2024)
QB Baker Mayfield: A strong season by Mayfield in 2023 led to him signing three-year, $100-million contract in the offseason, and while the fantasy success didn’t match the real-life success with just 16.1 fantasy points per game (barely above Jake Browning), the former No. 1 overall pick should be highly confident after taking Tampa Bay to the playoffs. In general, it’s probably best to view Mayfield as a low-end QB2 option, as the Bucs want to run more under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, and we’ll see how big of a loss Dave Canales is after Seattle’s passing attack took a step back without him last year.
RB Rachaad White: White was someone that had his arrow pointing straight up based on the combination of how he performed last season and the Buccaneers selecting Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton in Round 1—but the outlook certainly cooled off by Day 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft when the team took Oregon running back Bucky Irving. Although the status as the lead back isn’t really in question, the rookie could cut into White’s work in the passing game after it was a major factor in his 2023 breakout. The hope would be for Liam Coen’s reliance on the run to keep the consistency high for White—who also passed the eye test in addition to the numbers compiled.
RB Bucky Irving: The selection of Irving gives the Bucs a James White-type contributor that can make defenders miss in a phone booth and be a weapon in the passing game, but don’t sleep on his ability to make an impact as a runner. Despite his smaller size at five-foot-nine and 192 pounds, Irving is a very decisive back, so look for him to provide some deeper PPR value and be an underrated handcuff in Year 1.
RB Chase Edmonds: Edmonds couldn’t really get going last year with 49 carries for 176 yards (3.6 YPC) and 14 receptions for 81 yards, and he’ll likely settle in as the direct change-of-pace backup behind Bucky Irving. There is also a chance the veteran is unable to make the roster, and he’s averaged 3.6 yards per carry in 26 games since leaving the Cardinals.
RB Sean Tucker: We are fans of Tucker based on what he showed in college, but he didn’t have much room to operate in limited opportunities as a rookie with 15 carries for 23 scoreless yards—and now Rachaad White is much more established than he was at this time last year. The second-year back is just a dynasty stash based on the talent for now.
WR Mike Evans: Evans was a miss for us last season with Baker Mayfield—after struggling to build a strong connection with Odell Beckham Jr. and other perimeter targets throughout his career—formed a brilliant bond with the big-bodied wideout on his way to a top-five fantasy finish. Many will be highlighting Evans extending his own NFL record by recording 1,000 receiving yards for the tenth year in a row to begin his career, but the touchdowns getting back to peak levels with Tom Brady is what really made him a fantasy difference-maker, and Evans has now reached 13+ touchdowns in three of the past four seasons. The pendulum swinging back towards Chris Godwin in a new system is a possibility, but Evans is a high-upside WR2 that has shown no signs of slowing down.
WR Chris Godwin: The Buccaneers going to a version of Sean McVay’s system under Liam Coen is tremendous news for Godwin’s outlook, as the new OC directly compared the role to the one Cooper Kupp plays—and it’s one he is familiar with after spending a lot of time in the slot with Bruce Arians in charge for Tampa Bay. As pointed out in an article on the Bucs’ team website discussing the “big role” for Godwin, he was fifth in the NFL in receptions per game (6.5) and ninth in receiving yards per game (72.3) as a primary slot option with Tom Brady for three seasons, so the move back inside could allow the 28-year-old to get back into the WR2 ranks.
WR Jalen McMillian: Although he lasted until late on Day 2, McMillan is someone we liked slightly more than former Washington teammate and top-40 pick Ja’Lynn Polk—and Tampa Bay was able to get him as their projected No. 3 wideout. Before dealing with injuries in his final college season, McMillan went for a 79/1,098/9 line two years ago, and he was notably prioritized ahead of Polk when both were healthy for the Huskies, including in the College Football Playoff. The inside-outside versatility, smoothness, and shake makes him an ideal complementary option and the style of player Baker Mayfield has often liked targeting.
WR Trey Palmer: The competition for the No. 3 wideout role will be fiercer in 2024, and Palmer will try to build on what he did as a sixth-round rookie when he put up a solid 39/385/3 line. Notably, the downfield connection wasn’t there with just 9.9 yards per reception and 5.7 yards per target, so Jalen McMillan is probably a better fit for what the Bucs want from the role.
WR Sterling Shepard: Shepard played in 15 games last year, but he was limited to just ten receptions for 57 yards and one touchdown—with a miniscule 2.6 yards per target. The thinking for Tampa Bay is that he might be more like himself after a healthy season considering all the injuries that have derailed his career, but the more likely scenario is that Shepard doesn’t have the juice he once did as he enters his age-31 campaign.
TE Cade Otton: While the Buccaneers have star power with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, it’s easy to imagine Otton making a leap in Year 3, and the new scheme will feature plenty of 11 personnel that could create more space and allow him to use his athleticism. However, finding his footing in the offense could take time, and Otton has seen limited production dating back to his college days with lines of 13/174/3, 32/344/2, 18/258/3, and 28/250/1 at Washington—so we would give the edge to the upside of others in the TE2 ranks.
TEs Ko Kieft, Payne Durham, and Devin Culp: Kieft has been the clear No. 2 tight end as a complementary blocker over the past two seasons, but a new system could allow Durham (a six-foot-six target drafted in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft) or Culp (basically the opposite as an on-the-ground target with 4.47 speed) to emerge as the top backup behind Cade Otton.
Other Notes
Best IDP value: LB K.J. Britt
Britt saw more work down the stretch last season as more of a downhill thumper compared to Devin White, and the starting job alongside Lavonte David is now his—making him one of the best IDP values of the summer. Including playoffs, Britt played three games with at least 81% of the snaps played last year, and he went for eight tackles and a pass defended, six tackles and a tackle for loss, and 12 tackles and a tackle for loss.
Stat to know (via draft guide)
Rachaad White has caught 114-of-128 passes through two seasons—good for a catch percentage of 89.1%.