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Quarterback
Start of the Week: Patrick Mahomes (v LV)
The first game for Mahomes against the Raiders wasn’t exactly the monster performance many were hoping for with 262 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception—but it was a step in the right direction considering the early-season struggles. After passing for 231.5 yards per game with a 6:8 touchdown-interception ratio over his first six games, Mahomes has thrown for 256.8 yards per game with a 12:3 touchdown-interception ratio over the past five weeks, which started versus Las Vegas. We have him as our QB6 this week with the Chiefs perhaps exploding on Black Friday.
Start: Matthew Stafford (@ NO)
Sunday night was a disappointing loss for the Rams, but Stafford continued his strong play with multiple touchdown passes for the fourth time over the past five games. During that span, Stafford has a season-long pace of 4,787 yards and a 41:10 touchdown-interception ratio, so he’s caught fire with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in the lineup—and I don’t see the Saints being able to stick with the star duo this weekend. Based on the matchup, Stafford ranks in the top 10 at quarterback for the first time this season.
Start: Bo Nix (v CLE)
Nix has been not just one of the best fantasy quarterbacks since the start of October, but also one of the best real-life quarterbacks—so his confidence is high ahead of a primetime showdown versus the Browns. Denver will be tested up front with Myles Garrett coming to town, but Nix can evade pressure as well as anyone, and I get the feeling a big rushing performance could be coming with just five rushing yards over the past three weeks. The No. 12 overall pick should be a low-end QB1 option on Monday night,
Start: C.J. Stroud (@ JAX)
Stroud is another QB1 for this week, and if there is an opponent he will break out of his slump against, it’ll probably be the Jaguars—who have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (22.9), most passing yards per game (278.3), and most passing yards per attempt (8.5). In three career matchups, Stroud has roasted Jacksonville for 309.7 passing yards per game with a 6:0 touchdown-interception ratio, so he’s clearly a QB1 facing arguably the worst team in football.
Sit of the Week: Brock Purdy (@ BUF)
It sounds like Brock Purdy (shoulder) will return on Sunday night, but it’ll be versus a rested and stout Buffalo defense with possible snow in the forecast—so the outlook isn’t great despite 21.9 fantasy points per game for Purdy over his past five outings. On the season, Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback to score more than 17.76 fantasy points in a game versus the Bills, and Purdy’s shoulder not being quite 100% is another factor to consider. Overall, I’d view him as more of a midrange QB2 for Week 13.
Sit: Jordan Love (v MIA)
Dolphins-Packers is another game with possible weather implications that could impact passing attacks, as wind chills will be in the teens at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving Night. That would seem to set up for another game plan built around Josh Jacobs, and Romeo Doubs (concussion) likely being out takes a playmaker away from Love—who has thrown for just three touchdowns over his past four games. Also, the Dolphins are quietly allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (12.4).
Sit: Aaron Rodgers (v SEA)
I still have some hope about the Jets doing some good things offensively down the stretch, and perhaps Rodgers will benefit from the bye to heal up his various injuries. However, the Seahawks have become stingier since their own bye to beat the 49ers and Cardinals, and New York is simply difficult to trust at this point. And unlike others in the QB2 ranks, Rodgers doesn’t offer much upside as a runner, so even a strong showing might not lead to much fantasy success with all 32 teams in action.
Sit: Kirk Cousins (v LAC)
I’m encouraged by the Falcons saying they want to use play-action passes more because it’s a strength for Cousins (why it took so long for them to come to that realization is another story), but Sunday feels like a monster Bijan Robinson game to me. If so, Cousins is another aging signal-caller that needs to put up numbers through the air to pay off as a start, and the Chargers have a top-10 pass defense that should be getting standout rookie cornerback Cam Hart (concussion) in the lineup after missing him on Monday night. We have Cousins as a low-end QB2.
Running Back
Start of the Week: Jonathan Taylor (@ NE)
I’m going with Taylor here again after doing so earlier this month, but he’s too talented to not eventually snap his four-game touchdown drought, and the Patriots can be run on—including by Taylor himself with 29 carries for 170 yards and a touchdown in 2021 and 23 carries for 69 yards and a score last year in a 10-6 slugfest. The Colts allowing their superstar back to get downhill more would be ideal, but he’s an option I would build DFS lineups around as a low-end RB1 in terms of price (compared to an overall RB2 ranking for us this week).
Start: Bucky Irving (@ CAR)
The Panthers did a nice job containing Kareem Hunt last week (16 carries for 68 yards), but they remain the worst run defense in the league (160.5 yards per game allowed)—and Irving came out of the bye to lead the Tampa Bay backfield with 18 touches for 151 yards and a touchdown. In addition to the production as a runner (12 carries for 87 yards and a touchdown), Irving catching six-of-six targets for 64 yards last week was a tremendous sign, and he’s risen into the RB2 ranks.
Start: Isaiah Pacheco (v LV)
Pacheco (leg) didn’t end up playing last week, but he’s supposed to return on Black Friday—and we can expect the usual angry running out of him at frigid Arrowhead Stadium versus a hated rival in the Raiders. Last year, the Chiefs didn’t run Pacheco enough on the Christmas Day loss to Las Vegas with just 11 carries, but he’s found the end zone four times in three starts against the Raiders, and the AFC West foe isn’t the same defense or team that Kansas City had problems with in 2023. Get Pacheco back in lineups as a top-24 play.
Start: Rico Dowdle (v NYG)
Dowdle was the engine for Dallas last week with 22 touches for 98 yards, and now he takes on a New York squad that just allowed Bucky Irving to go crazy and surrendered touchdowns to Rachaad White and Sean Tucker as well. Maybe we’ll see a determined defense for the Giants on Thanksgiving to avoid another week of embarrassment, but Dowdle has been excellent in games with more than 15 touches this season—going for yardage totals of 114, 107, and 98.
Sit of the Week: Brian Robinson Jr. (v TEN)
Robinson (ankle) might not be able to go this week after handling five carries for 13 yards in the loss the Dallas, but if he’s active, Washington’s starter could find limited running room with Tennessee completely shutting down Joe Mixon last week (14 carries for 22 scoreless yards). The performance wasn’t an outlier for the Titans with rookie T’Vondre Sweat typically clogging holes for a defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per carry in the NFL (4.0), and Robinson also being at risk for an in-game setback makes him a clear FLEX rather than an RB2.
Sit: Chase Brown (v PIT)
Production as a receiver—especially over the past three games with 19 receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown—makes Brown a matchup-proof option, but the ceiling could be lowered some versus the top-five run defense of the Steelers. Recent games for Brown against the Eagles (12 carries for 32 yards) and Ravens (13 carries for 42 yards) were each saved by a touchdown on the ground, so he might be better viewed as a low-end RB2 that could even lose some work with Khalil Herbert having the bye week to dive into the playbook.
Sit: D’Andre Swift (@ DET)
Swift has cooled off since the start of November with one touchdown over the past four weeks (which follows a four-game stretch with 119+ total yards and a touchdown in every game), and his return to Detroit might not pan out with the Lions having a top-five run defense this year. As stated last week, the Bears have made a backfield split more of a priority under Thomas Brown, so Swift will again be dependent on having a chunk gain or heavy receiving work to pay off as more than a FLEX.
Sit: Nick Chubb (@ DEN)
It was awesome to see Chubb score twice (including the game-winner) last week against the Steelers, but he was limited to 20 carries for 59 yards—and is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry on the season. Denver has an elite defense that stops the run at a high level (3.8 yards per carry allowed), so Chubb could be in a spot where he needs to find the end zone, but Cleveland might not be as eager to stick with the run if they fall behind on the road.
Wide Receiver
Start of the Week: Malik Nabers (@ DAL)
I’m more hesitant about Nabers than I was last week because the rookie wasn’t featured until it was too late to make an impact, but his post-game comments voicing frustration should lead to increased opportunities—especially with Brian Daboll admitting he needs to do a better job getting Nabers the ball. Of course, the concern is the general ineptness of the Giants and Dallas knowing Nabers will be featured, but he caught 12 passes for 115 yards in the first matchup, and Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland aren’t really shutdown-type cornerbacks that would significantly downgrade Nabers’ outlook as a WR1.
Start: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (@ NYJ)
Smith-Njigba has turned into a star for the Seahawks with a 66/755/4 line through 10 games, and New York—even with Sauce Gardner struggling compared to his first two seasons—is better attacked out of the slot rather than on the perimeter. And remember, JSN was a prospect heavily connected to the Jets in the 2023 NFL Draft before they passed on him, and I’d bet he wants to show them what they’re missing out on while sharing the field with former college teammate Garrett Wilson for the first time at the NFL level. Roll with him as a high-floor WR2 with upside.
Start: DJ Moore (@ DET)
Moore thriving on efficiency by catching all 14 of his targets for 168 yards and a touchdown in two games since Shane Waldron was fired makes him more volatile than you’d like—and Chicago’s explosive weapon has been behind Keenan Allen (23 targets) and Rome Odunze (20) in terms of opportunities over the past two weeks. That said, Moore is averaging 106.2 receiving yards per game in five career matchups versus Detroit, and I would assume they will need to score points to have any chance of an upset. If you can live with the potential frustration, Moore should be a quality WR2.
Start: Joshua Palmer (@ ATL)
There were a few downfield shots to Palmer that didn’t connect on Monday night, but Justin Herbert will keep firing—and the former Tennessee standout could be more clearly in the No. 2 wide receiver role with Quentin Johnston struggling in the loss to Baltimore. Either way, Atlanta generating almost no pressure should allow Palmer to get deep on multiple occasions, so we’ll see if he can finally hit as an upside FLEX and nice DFS bargain.
Others: Jaylen Waddle (@ GB), Noah Brown (v TEN)
Sit of the Week: DK Metcalf (@ NYJ)
Metcalf is still a top-20 option at wide receiver, but he’s been quieter since his return to the lineup with lines of 7/70 and 4/59—and he’s scored just once since Week 3. Basically, the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba has limited the upside for Metcalf, and the Jets have allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game (174.9) and passing touchdowns (eight) in the league despite not playing up to their standard this year. If the focus is there for New York coming out of the bye, Metcalf will be less likely to emerge with a big game.
Sit: Jauan Jennings (@ BUF)
The connection Jennings has with Brock Purdy makes him a solid start, but for the same reasons San Francisco’s quarterback gets downgraded—weather, matchup, and the shoulder issue—the 27-year-old is firmly in FLEX territory for Week 13. Even if Purdy is close to full strength, I think Sunday night sets up for the game plan to be built around Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel Sr., while Jennings will be contending with tough coverage from Buffalo’s cornerbacks.
Sit: Michael Pittman Jr. (@ NE)
The Patriots falling apart defensively over the past two weeks with four passing touchdowns allowed to both Matthew Stafford and Tua Tagovailoa could have some thinking about playing Pittman—especially with Josh Downs (shoulder) out. I’d be worried about shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez, though, and Pittman had 25.3 receiving yards per game in his previous three outings before breaking out with 96 yards last week against a banged-up Detroit secondary. We have Pittman outside the top 40.
Sit: Jerry Jeudy (@ DEN)
Jeudy stayed hot with Jameis Winston under center last Thursday night—and he’s now gone for lines of 5/79, 7/73, 6/142/1, and 6/85 in Winston’s four starts this season. But you can be sure Sean Payton and the Broncos will make it a priority to make sure their former first-round pick doesn’t beat them in primetime, and Jeudy could see a lot of Pat Surtain II after the likely All-Pro just helped hold star rookie tight end Brock Bowers to four receptions for 38 yards in Week 12. If you have options, I would avoid Jeudy on Monday night.
Others: Marvin Harrison Jr. (@ MIN), Tyler Lockett (@ NYJ)
Tight End
Start: of the Week: Taysom Hill (v LAR)
Hopes of Hill becoming featured for the Saints with interim head coach Darren Rizzi knowing what he can do after coaching him on special teams has come to fruition—and he’s a no-doubt TE1 coming off 188 scrimmage yards and three rushing touchdowns in the win over Cleveland prior to the bye. This week, Rizzi said they’ll continue to use him in a variety of ways, which is the best-case scenario for fantasy owners. Start him confidently versus a Los Angeles defense that allowed 302 total yards to Saquon Barkley last week.
Start: Cade Otton (@ CAR)
Otton was a slight disappointment in the win over the Giants, but his lone reception at least went for 30 yards—and Tampa Bay didn’t exactly need to air it out with a 23-0 lead at halftime. While the presence of Mike Evans might drain some of the fantasy appeal from Otton, the Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points per game to the position (15.5), including a 10/128/2 line to Chiefs tight ends in Week 12.
Start: Tyler Conklin (v SEA)
I am expecting Davante Adams to be a major factor between the numbers against Seattle this weekend, but Conklin should also be a bigger priority with the Seahawks allowing Trey McBride to catch 12-of-15 targets against them last week. Going with Conklin in a redraft league will ideally be avoided with 10 or fewer yards in five of the past six games, but he’s at least a decent DFS target.
Sit of the Week: Dalton Kincaid (v SF)
We’ll see if Kincaid (knee) is able to return on Sunday night, and his talent always makes him worth considering in lineups. However, the matchup isn’t great against the 49ers, and Buffalo’s spread-the-wealth offense could slant away from Kincaid if he’s back in the lineup. For those with options at a shaky position, it might make sense to bench Kincaid as more of a borderline TE1 this week.
Sit: Isaiah Likely (v PHI)
Likely felt primed to be a more central part of the offense after returning from a hamstring injury to catch four passes for 75 yards a couple of weeks ago, but it was followed up by him not even recording a target on Monday night. The silver lining is that Lamar Jackson only had 22 pass attempts and Likely played 54% of the offensive snaps to lead the Baltimore tight ends, but it’s tough to trust him versus a Philadelphia defense that has been tremendous.
Sit: Mike Gesicki (v PIT)
The situation for Gesicki is somewhat similar to Likely, as the ability is undeniable—but he’s too much of an afterthought at times. For Gesicki, we at least know his production and general role decline dramatically when Tee Higgins is healthy, so he ranks outside the low-end TE2 ranks and doesn’t have the kind of value in scoring territory that he should based on his talent.