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Quarterback
Thumbs Up of the Week: Geno Smith (@ TEN)
As was the case last week, it’s unclear if Smith (groin) will be able to suit up for Seattle—but those relying on him will at least have the answer by Sunday morning. If he does play, Smith should be able to put up numbers throwing to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba versus a Tennessee defense that’s vulnerable on the backend, so I’d view him as a top-ten option for Week 16. If not, Drew Lock would settle into the QB13-QB15 range coming off a huge win over the Eagles.
Thumbs Up: Baker Mayfield (v JAX)
Mayfield had a monster day through the air last week with 381 yards and four touchdowns to get the Bucs to 7-7, and now he’ll take on a bottom-five Jacksonville pass defense that could again be without their top two defensive backs in Tyson Campbell (quadricep) and Andre Cisco (groin). Either way, a confident Mayfield can build on last week as a high-end QB2 with the Tampa Bay offense fully rounding into form as they push for an NFC South title.
Thumbs Up: Joe Flacco (@ HOU)
Flacco has been great since joining the Browns, and it’s been refreshing to see Cleveland trust him to throw the ball around the yard—resulting in 313.0 passing yards per game in three starts. The Texans have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league (14), but they’ve allowed the fourth-most passing yards per attempt (7.7), and Flacco has thrown it 44+ times in all three games this season. I like the former Super Bowl MVP as a strong streamer on Sunday.
Thumbs Up: Zach Wilson (v WAS)
Wilson needs to pass the concussion protocol to suit up this weekend, but if he does, the matchup—versus a Washington defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position—is as good as it gets. Basically, for as bad as the Jets have been offensively, taking on the Commanders might be a one-week cure because of how lost Ron Rivera’s unit has been over the past month. Also, Wilson didn’t have any chance last week with Miami dominating up front, but he’s just one week removed from throwing for 301 yards and two touchdowns.
Thumbs Down of the Week: Kyler Murray (@ CHI)
The Cardinals had a difficult matchup last week versus San Francisco, but this week might not be much easier based on how Chicago has played in recent games—holding the last six quarterbacks to just 10.9 fantasy points per game. Murray again showed he’s willing to run last week with six carries for 49 yards, but you’re banking on that continuing for him to pay off as a borderline QB1/QB2, and the floor is lower than you’d like in the fantasy playoffs.
Thumbs Down: Jordan Love (@ CAR)
Love had another efficient day last week and is now up to a 25:11 touchdown-interception ratio on the season, but Carolina has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing passers—including no games allowed of more than 16.46 fantasy points since their Week 7 bye. I would anticipate the Packers going with a run-heavy game plan after Aaron Jones looked good in his return, and the rushing production that Love showed early in the season has since fallen off. Consider him a quality QB2 rather than a QB1.
Thumbs Down: Jake Browning (@ PIT)
Perhaps a three-game winning streak will allow a confident Browning to fare better in the rematch, but Pittsburgh limited him to 227 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in his first start to close out November—and now Cincinnati is likely to be without Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) in the rematch. Furthermore, Joe Burrow has had some struggles versus the Steelers with eight interceptions in five career matchups, so Browning might have his passing volume scaled back for another potential slugfest (Pittsburgh won the first meeting, 16-10).
Thumbs Down: Sam Howell (@ NYJ)
Howell is set to start this week despite being benched and watching Jacoby Brissett lead a late comeback attempt in Week 15, but the matchup is difficult versus the Jets—and you would think there is a chance he’s benched again. Even if he plays the entire game, New York has allowed fewer than 14.0 fantasy points to the position in ten-of-14 games this season, and Josh Allen is the only quarterback to reach the mark over the past two months.
Running back
Thumbs Up of the Week: Kenneth Walker III (@ TEN)
Walker should be 100% locked into all lineups, but his consensus ranking (whether it’s ESPN or FantasyPros) has him ranked as a low-end RB2/FLEX option, which is crazy. Last week, Walker keyed the victory over Philadelphia, and he handled 22 touches—compared to just four touches for Zach Charbonnet—while looking healthy and showing big-play ability. After starting the season as a high-end RB1, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be back there as Seattle fights for a playoff spot.
Thumbs Up: Ezekiel Elliott (@ DEN)
Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) will likely miss another week, so Elliott is positioned to have a big game in a Christmas Eve showdown versus a Denver defense that has allowed the most rushing yards per game (146.9) and yards per carry (5.2) in the league. Last week didn’t go as planned for Zeke, but he still handled 16 touches (including five receptions) and has a very high floor, so keep him in lineups with borderline top-15 value.
Thumbs Up: Najee Harris (v CIN)
Pittsburgh has hit a wall offensively with 13.4 points per game during their 1-4 stretch, but the only win came versus Cincinnati—and Harris was a big part of it with 15 carries for 99 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals might be fired up with the opportunity to essentially eliminate a division rival while substantially boosting their own playoff odds, but the run defense has been weak, and losing top defensive lineman DJ Reader won’t help matters.
Thumbs Up: Roschon Johnson (v ARI)
This is merely a guess with Chicago possibly having either Khalil Herbert or D’Onta Foreman operating as the lead back, and a full-blown committee could prevent all three of them from paying dividends as a start; but Johnson was the most efficient last week with five carries for 36 yards (plus four receptions for 24 yards), and it would make sense for Chicago to feature him down the stretch. Facing an Arizona defense that’s allowing the most fantasy points to enemy runners, Johnson is worth FLEX consideration.
Thumbs Down of the Week: Ty Chandler (v DET)
Chandler is a running back that we know will be featured because head coach Kevin O’Connell said as much, but Detroit has been very stout versus the run (as shown versus Denver last week), and Alexander Mattison (ankle) is expected back to at least take some work away. In general, this weekend might be a heavy emphasis on Justin Jefferson and the passing game based on the matchup, so Chandler is more of a FLEX than potential RB2—as it’s important to not put too much weight on last week’s performance versus a struggling Cincinnati defense.
Thumbs Down: Javonte Williams (v NE)
The Chiefs saw solid production out of both Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire last week versus New England, but Bill Belichick’s defense actually got even more stingy versus the run with the yards-per-carry average allowed dropping from 3.2 to 3.1. Williams still has encouraging volume (14 touches last week) and can have a better outlook if Denver plays from ahead, but I’d wait until next week versus the Chargers to get him back in the clear RB2 ranks.
Thumbs Down: Devin Singletary (v CLE)
Singletary has been awesome since taking over as the lead back for Houston, and last week was another standout showing with 30 touches for 170 total yards. That said, the potential absence of C.J. Stroud might hurt more this week versus a Cleveland defense that will stack the box to stop the run because of the confidence they have in their cornerback trio, and the Browns have limited opposing running backs to just 85 rushing yards over the past two weeks. It’d be understandable to ride the hot hand, but we have Singletary outside the top 30.
Thumbs Down: D’Onta Foreman (v ARI)
Again, this is a guess, and Foreman could very well lead the Chicago backfield and have a great game with the Cardinals just getting thrashed by Christian McCaffrey. The veteran was limited to negative-six yards on six carries last week, though, and the Bears having their playoff hopes dashed should lead to Roschon Johnson being given the opportunity to audition for the lead job in 2024. Whether it’s in redraft lineups or as a DFS option, Foreman is someone to avoid this week.
Wide receiver
Thumbs Up of the Week: Garrett Wilson (v WAS)
Wilson has tried to keep morale high this year with the Jets struggling, but things reached a boiling point in last week’s shutout loss in which he only saw four targets—and none in the first half. The frustration should lead to Wilson being fed opportunities early and often this week, and Washington is the perfect opponent to explode against by surrendering an insane 32:6 touchdown-interception ratio—not to mention the most passing yards per game (264.8) and yards per attempt (8.0) allowed. I believe Wilson is a top-12 option this week.
Thumbs Up: Gabe Davis (@ LAC)
Davis is a major risk in lineups considering he’s been held without a catch in three-of-four games since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, but he’s still been a full-time player as the clear No. 2 wideout and had a 6/105/1 line (on 12 targets) in the other game. Los Angeles should be an opponent for Davis to get going against with Tre Tucker and others running free all game in Week 15, so look for him to be rewarded on Saturday night for doing a lot of dirty work that’s helped Buffalo get the offense going.
Thumbs Up: George Pickens (v CIN)
Pickens is a player that was criticized for not blocking last week in the red zone, but we can hopefully give him the benefit of the doubt as a guy that has shown he can contribute at a high level in the running game. As a pass-catcher, Pickens needs to be more involved if the Steelers are going to get back on track offensively, and the Bengals have been susceptible to chunk plays, especially with star cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt (ankle) injured. He’s out of the WR2 ranks because of the floor, but Pickens’ upside is worth taking a shot on.
Thumbs Up: DeVonta Smith (v NYG)
Philadelphia didn’t play through Smith enough last week with five targets (all of which were caught for 50 yards) in the loss, but he saw at least eight targets in all three matchups versus the Giants last year (including playoffs) and needs to be featured when given one-on-one coverage. Based on the pressure New York is expected to bring, I get the feeling Smith will take advantage by creating separation on the intermediate area of the field, and he remains a WR1 on Christmas Day.
Others: Amari Cooper (@ HOU), Tyler Lockett (@ TEN)
Thumbs Down of the Week: Terry McLaurin (@ NYJ)
McLaurin is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season, but it was due to Jacoby Brissett giving him chances in the fourth quarter with nearly 90 yards—and Sam Howell will be back under center for a Christmas Eve trip to New York. The quarterback issues combined with the matchup (the Jets still have a top-two pass defense) pushes McLaurin outside the top 36 at wide receiver, and matchups versus the 49ers and Cowboys over the final two weeks might have him outside the WR2 ranks until next year.
Thumbs Down: Nico Collins (v CLE)
Cleveland is the defense ranked above the Jets versus the pass heading into Week 16, so Collins—if he returns from his calf injury—won’t be in a good spot versus Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson Jr., and Greg Newsome II. Even if C.J. Stroud ends up getting cleared, the pass rush of the Browns might prevent him from extending plays, and that’s been a big part of some of the chunk gains that Collins and the Texans have had this year. Assuming he’s back, I’d view Collins as a volatile FLEX.
Thumbs Down: Marquise Brown (@ CHI)
Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon said he is “concerned” about a heel injury for Brown that knocked him out of last week’s game, and there is probably too much risk to confidently start him. In terms of the matchup, Jaylon Johnson has been a cornerback to avoid on the perimeter, which would downgrade Brown if he’s able to go. Ideally, those relying on the speedster will have him rest this week before hopefully returning next week for a blow-up spot versus the Eagles.
Thumbs Down: Joshua Palmer (v BUF)
Palmer being here is under the assumption that Keenan Allen (heel) will return, as the matchup is tough versus the shell coverage of Buffalo—and the Chargers probably aren’t good enough without Justin Herbert (finger) to rely on multiple pass-catchers to produce. And although Allen being out would be a definite boost, the big-play ability might be capped to firmly make Palmer a WR3/WR4 option rather than a possible WR2 play.
Others: Adam Thielen (v GB), Zay Flowers (@ SF)
Tight end
Thumbs Up of the Week: Trey McBride (@ CHI)
McBride’s second-half emergence continued last week with ten receptions (on 11 targets) for 102 yards in a tough matchup versus San Francisco, and he’s on a season-long pace of 124/1,316/5 since being unleashed in Week 8. For as well as the Bears have played defensively over the past several games, they still struggle to defend tight ends (as shown by David Njoku last week), and McBride should be a no-doubt TE1 on Christmas Eve.
Thumbs Up: Hunter Henry (@ DEN)
For an option that might be available to add and start if you need help at tight end, Henry has been the clear top target for Bailey Zappe—including three touchdowns over the past two weeks. Now taking on a Denver defense that just allowed Sam LaPorta to catch three touchdowns and has consistently been vulnerable to tight ends, Henry should bring plenty of upside, and Mike Gesicki would be a nice pivot if a knee injury keeps Henry out.
Thumbs Up: Dalton Kincaid (@ LAC)
Kincaid was held without a catch last week, but the entire Buffalo passing attack was quiet with Josh Allen having just seven completions—and the rookie entered the game with least five receptions in seven consecutive outings before the win over Dallas. Maybe the Bills won’t need to do much through the air again, but Kincaid’s talent is worth starting as a TE1, and I’m interested to see how Buffalo does in their first dome game of 2023.
Thumbs Down of the Week: George Kittle (v BAL)
Kittle remains a top-eight option at tight end, and you’re almost certainly starting him on Christmas Night. However, the Ravens are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, so teams that are loaded with another option such as David Njoku or Trey McBride might want to consider benching Kittle on a stacked offense considering the floor he’s shown at times.
Thumbs Down: Dallas Goedert (v NYG)
Goedert is another option that you probably need to start based on the talent, but New York has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position, and Philadelphia couldn’t get their tight end going last week with four receptions (on nine targets) for 30 yards. Additionally, Goedert has been contained with 253 yards and zero touchdowns in eight career regular season meetings versus the Giants, and the Eagles might play more through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith this week.
Thumbs Down: Gerald Everett (v BUF)
As stated, the Chargers might not be good enough on offense to lift multiple pass-catchers, and the Bills have remained a challenge for opposing tight ends despite not having Matt Milano (leg). Everett can be good for a solid day, but the lack of upside with no games of more than 47 yards this year makes other option more exciting for Week 16.