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Quarterback
Thumbs Up of the Week: Brock Purdy (@ WAS)
Purdy is thought to be “fine” after suffering another stinger on Christmas Night, and if he plays this weekend, the second-year quarterback is in the perfect bounce-back spot versus a Washington defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to the position. I doubt the possible absence of Trent Williams (groin) would be enough to impact Purdy’s outlook throwing to Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle—so we have him as our overall QB4 for Week 17.
Thumbs Up: Kyler Murray (@ PHI)
Philadelphia is the defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Murray has had success against them in the past—completing 70.5% of his passes for 328.0 yards per game and a 4:2 touchdown-interception ratio (not to mention 71 yards and a score on the ground) in two matchups. If the Cardinals have Marquise Brown (heel) back in the lineup, Murray will have the firepower needed to put up numbers, and he’s rushed for a score in half of his six appearances this season. Consider him a top-ten option.
Thumbs Up: C.J. Stroud (v TEN)
Stroud didn’t play in the previous win over Tennessee, and there is a chance Mike Vrabel has his defense playing stout once again after nearly upsetting Seattle last week. However, not facing the Titans already should be a benefit for Stroud, and their defense has allowed the ninth-most passing yards per attempt in the league (7.4); with injuries on the backend for the division rival, Stroud and the Texans should be able to successfully attack through the air to immediately put him back in the QB1 ranks.
Thumbs Up: Baker Mayfield (v NO)
Coming in red hot with 332.0 yards per game and a 6:0 touchdown-interception ratio over the past two weeks, Mayfield should be a high-end QB2 on Sunday—especially after having no problems in the first matchup versus New Orleans by putting up 22.94 fantasy points. Now at home with a chance to win the NFC South, look for Mayfield to remain sharp and hit his collection of playmakers to move the ball versus a defense that probably isn’t as good as the numbers suggest with an “easy” schedule in terms of quarterbacks they have faced in 2023.
Thumbs Down of the Week: Tua Tagovailoa (@ BAL)
Miami likely being without Jaylen Waddle (ankle) impacts the overall ceiling for Tagovailoa this week, and Baltimore just showed how dominant they are on defense with the 33-19 win over San Francisco in which they recorded five interceptions. The Dolphins having a similar system to the 49ers should provide additional worry, and Tua has not been as effective on the road as he’s been at home, so I’d view him as more of a top-15 option than top-ten option if Waddle if indeed held out.
Thumbs Down: Jordan Love (@ MIN)
Perhaps a rematch will allow Love to have more success (which happened versus the Lions this year), but Minnesota held Green Bay to ten points in Week 8—and the pressure can get to the young passer again on Sunday night. Also, I think the Packers will be trying to play through Aaron Jones and the running game again (28 carries for Jones and AJ Dillon last week, compared to 28 pass attempts for Love), and the young Green Bay wideouts have injury concerns behind Romeo Doubs right now. Downgrade Love to the midrange QB2 ranks.
Thumbs Down: Geno Smith (v PIT)
Smith wasn’t overly aggressive in his return to the lineup last week with a lot of underneath throws in a low-scoring win for Seattle, and a rejuvenated Pittsburgh squad could be a challenge on Sunday. Other than a disappointing two-game stretch in which they allowed the Patriots and Colts to each have three touchdown passes, the Steelers have been mostly excellent on defense this year, and they’ve allowed just 14.5 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Thumbs Down: Nick Mullens (v GB)
It’s still unclear if Mullens will draw another start after four interceptions last week, but if he does, you’d have to imagine the leash will be extremely short on New Year’s Eve. I would say the pure upside throwing to Justin Jefferson—and defensive struggles for the Packers—isn’t enough to risk starting Mullens with T.J. Hockenson (knee) out and Jordan Addison (ankle) either out or playing at less than 100%; as many Brock Purdy owners know, the last thing you want is a two-point performance crushing the hopes of a fantasy win.
Running back
Thumbs Up of the Week: Travis Etienne Jr. (v CAR)
Playing through Etienne seems like the easiest fix in the world to Jacksonville’s offensive struggles, and another injury to Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) might force that to be the case despite just six carries for 12 yards last week. On the season, Carolina has allowed an NFL-high 23 rushing touchdowns, and Aaron Jones just rushed 21 times for 127 yards (6.0 YPC) against them; I’m hopeful about Etienne as a high-end RB1.
Thumbs Up: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (v CIN)
Isiah Pacheco (concussion) getting cleared and suiting up would put him here as at least a high-end RB2, but if not, Edwards-Helaire could be set for a nice workload versus a Cincinnati defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards per carry in the league (4.7). The concern is a lack of efficiency on the ground for CEH with just 3.3 yards per carry this year, so fantasy owners would hope for the receiving production from the past three weeks (9/135/1) to continue for him to pay off as a potential top-20 option.
Thumbs Up: Javonte Williams (v LAC)
The Chargers showed impressive fight in the first game under interim head coach Giff Smith, and that included containing James Cook on the ground. That said, Los Angeles still has an attackable run defense, and they’ve allowed 90+ rushing yards to running backs in each of the past five games. In order for Denver to get on track offensively, I’d look for Williams to be featured like he was in the first matchup with 20 touches for 91 yards and a score.
Thumbs Up: Ty Chandler (v GB)
Chandler wasn’t a total bust last week thanks to a short touchdown, but he had just eight carries for 17 yards versus a stout Detroit defense. Now, the second-year runner will face a Green Bay unit that has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game in the league (135.9), and I’d expect Minnesota to run the offense through Chandler when Justin Jefferson isn’t getting targeted. Even for what looks like a strong week for the position, Chandler is an RB2.
Thumbs Down of the Week: Breece Hall (@ CLE)
Hall was terrific last week with 32 touches for 191 total yards and two touchdowns, but can he be trusted as a must-start for the fantasy championship? Before a cupcake matchup versus Washington, Hall had been limited to 27.8 rushing yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry in the previous nine outings, and Cleveland has been a brutal opponent to face when they’re at home. The big-play ability can certainly pay off, but Hall is more of a FLEX for me this week.
Thumbs Down: Ezekiel Elliott (@ BUF)
Week 17 seemed to be the potential target date for Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) to possibly return, but even if he doesn’t, Elliott is another runner that should be downgraded despite a strong showing last week. Although the Bills are a team that can be run on (4.6 yards per carry allowed), I would expect stopping Zeke both as a runner and pass-catcher will be a priority for Sean McDermott, and the veteran back has been limited to 23 carries for 52 yards (2.3 YPC) over the past two games.
Thumbs Down: James Conner (@ PHI)
Philadelphia has continued to be weaker versus the run since the Week 10 bye, but this is a potential get-right spot for the entire team—and I’d be worried about a completely slanted game script that has Arizona airing it out early and often. Plus, issues at linebacker have been a major reason for the Eagles’ struggles, so Shaquille Leonard flashing last week might be a sign that things will quickly come together for them. Conner falls behind guys like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ty Chandler for this week.
Thumbs Down: Brian Robinson Jr. (v SF)
Robinson (hamstring) hasn’t played since Week 13 and could be held out again, but if he plays, I wouldn’t have a ton of confidence in him as a start versus a San Francisco defense that will a) be angry following a loss, and b) limited him to 22 carries for 58 scoreless yards last December. For the season, the Niners have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game in the league (90.3), and Washington has injuries on an offensive line that wasn’t very good to begin with.
Wide receiver
Thumbs Up of the Week: Cooper Kupp (@ NYG)
Those with Kupp are likely starting him, but last Thursday night was disappointing with a couple of missed touchdown opportunities (to be fair, they were tough grabs), and Puka Nacua has outproduced him this year. For this week, though, I believe Kupp is the preferred play with New York being very attackable in the slot, and we have him as a top-seven option at wide receiver—and a terrific DFS target—despite a consensus ranking as a mid-to-low WR2.
Thumbs Up: Chris Godwin (v NO)
The Saints are an opponent that Godwin has had plenty of success against throughout his career, and that includes in the first meeting this season with eight receptions for 114 yards. Godwin’s outlook is also increased due to more involvement with 11+ targets in each of the past three weeks, and he could be a decent bet to catch his second touchdown of the year with Baker Mayfield tossing eight scores over the same span. Get Godwin in lineups as a top-24 option.
Thumbs Up: Zay Flowers (v MIA)
There is a seven-yard performance breaking things up, but Flowers has found the end zone in three of the past four weeks, and he saw a season-high 13 targets on Monday night in the biggest game of the year for Baltimore. Heading into another huge matchup this week with the Dolphins coming to town, Flowers should again see a good number of opportunities, and his outlook is boosted by mostly avoiding Jalen Ramsey in coverage.
Thumbs Up: Brandin Cooks (v DET)
Lions-Cowboys has the makings of a high-scoring game, and Cooks could be unleashed similar to last month when he broke out with a 9/173/1 line after seeing just two targets the previous week. Of course, that kind of stat line shouldn’t be expected, but the Lions are vulnerable at cornerback, and Cooks has shown impressive touchdown potential with a score in six of the past ten outings. I like the veteran as an upside FLEX for Week 17.
Others: Jameson Williams (@ DAL), Marquise Brown (@ PHI)
Thumbs Down of the Week: Mike Evans (v NO)
At this point, Evans is probably in the too-good-to-bench category, and we still have him ranked as a high-end WR2 this week. But if you are completely loaded at wide receiver, it’s fair to take everything into consideration against a New Orleans defense that has held him in check over the years—including just three receptions for 40 yards in Week 4. At the very least, fantasy owners shouldn’t expect a monster game from Evans with two total touchdowns and no games with 70+ yards versus the Saints over the past five years.
Thumbs Down: Garrett Wilson (@ CLE)
Wilson was featured last week with nine receptions on a season-high 15 targets, but he only had 68 total yards in the best possible matchup, and the opposite will be true on Thursday night with Cleveland having the league’s best pass defense (160.1 yards per game). Particularly with Zach Wilson (concussion) out again, Wilson should be downgraded to the clear FLEX ranks, and fantasy owners playing in Week 18 might be wise to wait until 2024—when Aaron Rodgers is back—due to another difficult matchup in the season finale (@ NE).
Thumbs Down: DeAndre Hopkins (@ HOU)
Hopkins was limited to two receptions for 21 yards a couple of weeks ago against his former team, and the outing came on an inefficient nine targets—so Tennessee could have a different game plan for the rematch in their attempt to play spoiler. Overall, Hopkins is quietly approaching 1,000 yards with 939 on the year, but the volatility has been on display this month with lines of 5/75/1 and 7/124/1 followed up by 41 scoreless yards over the past two weeks.
Thumbs Down: DK Metcalf (v PIT)
Metcalf is a definite start and has seen his value increase—even on limited targets considering his talent—thanks to five touchdowns over the past four games; but he faces the possibility of shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. this weekend, and again, the targets have been limited with just 17 looks in three games this month, which is less than both Tyler Lockett (26) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (18). Because of those two factors, Metcalf falls outside the top 15 this week.
Others: Drake London (@ CHI), Odell Beckham Jr. (v MIA)
Tight end
Thumbs Up of the Week: David Njoku (v NYJ)
By this point, those with Njoku almost certainly have him locked into lineups, as he’s gone for lines of 6/91/2, 10/104/1, and 6/44/1 during Cleveland’s three-game winning streak. Still, he’s worth highlighting ahead of Thursday night with the Browns likely to play through him to avoid Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed on the outside, and Njoku has totaled 31 targets over the past three weeks to make him a no-doubt top-five option.
Thumbs Up: Kyle Pitts (@ CHI)
Atlanta didn’t need to air it out much in last week’s win, but Pitts caught a 24-yard touchdown in the first quarter, and Taylor Heinicke is the best option under center for him to put up numbers. This week, the Falcons should use Pitts over the middle versus a Chicago defense that has been roasted by tight ends with the third-most fantasy points allowed to the position, and the former No. 4 overall pick is top-12 play with a touchdown in two of the past three games.
Thumbs Up: Gerald Everett (@ DEN)
A tight end facing the Broncos is basically written in stone here, and Mike Gesicki was the latest to pay dividends with a touchdown catch on Christmas Eve. Next up, Everett was able to at least have a respectable day in the first December matchup versus Denver with five receptions (on eight targets) for 39 yards, and he’s been steady with at least four receptions in every game since Thanksgiving. If you need a solid streamer, it’s probably difficult to do better than Everett.
Thumbs Down of the Week: Pat Freiermuth (@ SEA)
The quarterback shuffling in Pittsburgh hasn’t been a good thing for Freiermuth, as he’s followed up a career day (9/120) at the end of November by combining for 63 scoreless yards in four games this month. I know Seattle has allowed production to the position in recent weeks, but Freiermuth simply hasn’t been a priority over the past few games, and Mason Rudolph didn’t even target him in Week 16. I would recommend looking elsewhere.
Thumbs Down: Hunter Henry (@ BUF)
Henry (knee) could miss another game, but if he’s active, the Bills haven’t been a favorable matchup for him with 217 yards and zero touchdowns in eight career meetings (including playoffs). The hope would be that Bailey Zappe simply has a great connection with the 29-year-old in scoring territory, but Buffalo has only allowed a touchdown to a tight end in two games this season.
Thumbs Down: Josh Oliver (v GB)
The Vikings surprisingly gave Oliver a three-year, $21-million contract this offseason, and maybe he will be relied upon for a big role with T.J. Hockenson (knee) done for the year. However, that’s not something I would count on with Oliver being signed for his blocking as much as anything else, and the quarterback uncertainty for Minnesota only adds more risk for him as a streaming option.