Photo courtesy: Arturo Pardavila III
Tonight’s MLB Home Run Derby should be a good one. During the 30-plus-year history of the derby, a lot of great players have been in it and put on awesome performances. The contest has come a long way since 1985, and the 2017 version might have the most collective power of any Home Run Derby in history. We’ll go through the seeds, along with the odds, of each participant.
1 seed: Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins (26 HR this season; 200+ odds)
The derby format changing to the bracket format leads to more chances, but Giancarlo Stanton demolished the record for the contest, smashing 61 out of Petco Park last year. The defending champion, given his experience, should be considered the favorite.
2 seed: Aaron Judge, Yankees (30 HR; 200+)
The American League’s version of Giancarlo Stanton (but somehow even bigger) leads the league in home runs and is well on his way to AL Rookie of the Year. A championship matchup between these two Goliaths would be an instant classic.
3 seed: Cody Bellinger, Dodgers (25 HR; +650)
Since Bellinger’s call-up to the big leagues, the Dodgers have been the best team in baseball. He has smashed 25 home runs and is second only to Aaron Judge in home runs per at bat this season.
4 seed: Mike Moustakas, Royals (25 HR; +1400)
One year removed from his season-ending knee injury, Mike Moustakas seems to have gotten better. He already set a career-high in homers and is a big-time pull-hitter, something that can be argued as an advantage in this contest.
5 seed: Miguel Sano, Twins (21 HR; +700)
Sano is in a bit of a strikeout funk entering the Derby, so maybe he needs to get back into a rhythm for tonight. With a bunch of raw power, Sano could make a run if he gets past Moustakas in the first round.
6 seed: Charlie Blackmon, Rockies (20 HR; +1400)
With one of the most difficult paths to a Derby win, Blackmon is tied for the second lowest odds to win it. Blackmon has six hits in his last three games, including two home runs, so he’ll try to take that momentum into tonight.
7 seed: Justin Bour, Marlins (20 HR; +1400)
Despite being at home in Marlins Park (like his teammate Giancarlo Stanton), Bour is tied with Blackmon and Moustakas for the lowest odds to win. If Bour can use the familiar hitter’s eye to his advantage, he could surprise.
8 seed: Gary Sanchez, Yankees (13 HR; +1200)
Gary Sanchez has battled injuries, but there is no question he can crush the baseball when he’s healthy. The 24-year-old is currently in a homer-less streak, but if he gets on a roll, he could topple Stanton in the first round and make a run to a title.
Darkhorse: Miguel Sano
If you’re looking for a darkhorse to win it all, Miguel Sano might be the guy. The biggest concern for the big righty is keeping his stamina throughout the night. But he agreed to participate in this, so he should know if he’s ready to take dozens and dozens of swings.
Winner: Giancarlo Stanton
The record-holder for most homers in a Derby in his own ball park? Even in a loaded field, Stanton is my pick to win for a second straight season. Look for him to put on a show in front of a full crowd at Marlins Park.
This is not the year to bet on the hr derby