The MLB regular season is just two-and-a-half weeks from completion, as teams fight to clinch division titles and wild-card berths for October. Seemingly every award is up for grabs with about 15 games left for each team, but the NL Cy Young award is the closest race because it included a pitcher that has a sub-.500 record to this point—to no fault of his own, as he currently owns a 1.71 ERA.
The lowest-ever win total for a Cy Young winner was Felix Hernandez’s 13 wins in 2010. With eight wins and just a few starts left, deGrom is not going to come close to that win total, and he might somehow win the award with single-digit wins—which might never happen again.
In Hernandez’s 2010, he had a 2.27 ERA and 232 strikeouts. This season, deGrom has a 1.71 ERA and 239 strikeouts—albeit in the National League. deGrom also has a major-league record 26 consecutive starts of allowing three or fewer runs. He goes deep into ballgames, he rarely walks batters, he strikes out plenty—all on a team that hasn’t given him much support.
As crazy as it sounds, these final starts for deGrom—and the performance of his team behind him—could determine whether or not he takes home a Cy Young. In the minds of some voters, it might be easier to give it to a guy that at least has a winning record, which deGrom does not have right now at 8-9.
However, given deGrom’s stellar season, there must be other NL pitchers also having great years if someone else is going to win Cy Young. A few guys come to mind—two in particular.
Let’s start with Rockies starter Kyle Freeland. He has a 14-7 record with a 2.91 ERA and 153 strikeouts. Many in Colorado are pushing his candidacy a bit, but I just don’t see it. The argument is that Freeland plays a lot of his games at Coors Field, so he would be putting him better numbers someplace else. I’m not trying to take away from the fact that Freeland has had a very good season—and he could be a big factor in October, which other Cy Young candidates might not have the opportunity to do—but I don’t think it’s quite Cy Young caliber.
It’s a different story for Max Scherzer of the Nationals and Aaron Nola of the Phillies. Their teams are also in the NL East like deGrom’s Mets, but they’ve been relatively in the division race for much of the season (especially Philadelphia). Let’s take a look at their numbers:
Scherzer: 17-6, 2.31 ERA, 271 strikeouts
Nola: 16-4, 2.29 ERA, 196 strikeouts
The win-loss totals obviously give them a leg up on deGrom, and the ERA numbers are certainly Cy Young-caliber. However, many people today don’t care much for win totals, with some classifying it as an irrelevant stat. I certainly do not agree with that, and the analytics also favor Scherzer and Nola.
Nola is second in the majors with a 9.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), behind only Mookie Betts. Meanwhile, Scherzer is tied with Mike Trout for third in WAR, at 8.9. deGrom is right behind them with an 8.3 WAR.
Wins Above Replacement is the stat a lot of people today like to use, and deGrom is a relative distant third behind Nola and Scherzer. There would even be a case for Nola and Scherzer (who have the wins) to be in the NL MVP race if Phillies and Nationals were winning more games when they are not on the mound.
Putting deGrom aside for a minute, between Nola and Scherzer, I give the edge to Nola. Nola and Scherzer had two big-time matchups last month, and the Phillies star outdueled the Nationals ace both times—but a comeback win by Washington made it a 1-1 split in the games.
Still, the results were clear on those two occasions. Head-to-head on the same field, which doesn’t happen often, Nola was better both games. Also with the slight edge in ERA and the pretty sizable edge in WAR, Nola gets the close-but-clear nod for me.
So Nola or deGrom for NL Cy Young? We will have nearly 20 days to decide, but it’s close. Not much should change over their final starts, though, as they’ve both been consistently amazing this season. It comes down to whether you believe someone with single-digit wins and potentially a losing record can win a Cy Young or not.
Personally, I’d like to see deGrom get to a winning record and take home the award. But it’ll be interesting to see how this unprecedented situation plays out in the coming weeks.
Nola
Nola just got rocked by the Nats.