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2022 NFL Game Picks: Week 10

Last week: 9-4

Season: 79-56-1


ATL (4-5) @ CAR (2-7)

Thursday, November 10 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video


The Falcons and Panthers meet for a rematch less than two weeks after their 37-34 thriller that Atlanta won late in overtime, but I get the feeling that Thursday night—though always unpredictable—could be a more low-scoring game between the NFC South foes. PJ Walker will start at quarterback for Carolina after being pulled for Baker Mayfield in Week 9, and it’s interesting that Sam Darnold (ankle) is reportedly someone they want to take a look at when fully healthy (to compare, Darnold is still just 25 and a few months older than Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett and Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker). Under center for the Falcons, Marcus Mariota had perhaps his best game of the season in the first meeting, and Cordarrelle Patterson provides a massive boost to the offense; I’m sure Arthur Smith loved the former wideout trucking a defender last week on one of his scores. If D’Onta Foreman doesn’t run wild and they keep D.J. Moore from getting behind the defense, Atlanta should have the advantage.


Winner: Atlanta Falcons


SEA (6-3) @ TB (4-5)

Sunday, November 13 | 9:30 AM ET (Germany) | NFL Network


The ending of Rams-Buccaneers felt like a playoff game with Tom Brady coming through by orchestrating a 60-yard touchdown drive in 35 seconds to avoid a 3-6 start—and you could feel the pure relief from Tampa Bay following the game-winning score. Targeting the shifty Scotty Miller was a significant part of last week’s comeback, and I’d anticipate the five-foot-nine target will again be a factor in Germany with Seattle cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Michael Jackson both being bigger players that can struggle versus quickness. Either way, the Week 9 victory is something that could open the floodgates for Tampa Bay (their defensive performance shouldn’t go overlooked), and being healthier on the backend will help them contain DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett with Geno Smith continuing to play extremely confident football. Overall, Seattle is for real this season, but the Bucs have a chance to get back to .500 before the bye week and won’t let the opportunity go to waste.


Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers


MIN (7-1) @ BUF (6-2)

Sunday, November 13 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX


As of this writing, I’m expecting Josh Allen (elbow) won’t play on Sunday with a long-term outlook in mind for Buffalo (they’ve already had their bye week, so now could be the best time to rest), and the injury situation for them in general has the Bills in a tough spot with the 7-1 Vikings coming to town. However, this feels like the type of all-hands-on-deck kind of game that Sean McDermott’s squad can win, and Tre’Davious White (knee) making his season debut would obviously be a massive boost as they try to contain Justin Jefferson. Also, Case Keenum and Stefon Diggs have a strong connection from their time together in Minnesota, and it will be fun to see them take on their former team if Allen is indeed held out. It will also be cool to have Dalvin Cook and James Cook face off this weekend, and the Buffalo run defense remains a concern based on the past couple of weeks—which could lead to the veteran Cook having a big day. But with early November snow in the forecast, I’ll still go with the home team as they look to avoid suddenly falling behind Kansas City in the AFC standings.


Winner: Buffalo Bills


DET (2-6) @ CHI (3-6)

Sunday, November 13 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX


The Lions showed signs of their defensive turnaround in Week 7 with a battle against Dallas, and perhaps they have completely turned the corner after a 15-9 win over the Packers (allowing a huge day to the Miami offense in between might say more about the Dolphins than Detroit). The focus will need to be different this week, though, as Justin Fields has turned into a record-setting running quarterback, and it’s a hilarious visual to picture Dan Campbell relaxing with a beer following the Week 9 win only to realize how dangerous Chicago’s quarterback has been on the ground as the next opponent on the schedule. Last season, the Lions had trouble containing Darnell Mooney (125+ yards in both games), and Aaron Glenn’s defense needs to be more disciplined on the backend with Green Bay failing to capitalize on a couple of downfield opportunities against them. Still, difference might be the Bears lacking playmakers in the front seven to make Jared Goff uncomfortable after he lost three fumbles in two matchups last year.


Winner: Detroit Lions 


JAX (3-6) @ KC (6-2) 

Sunday, November 13 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS


Career-highs in pass attempts (68, which easily topped the previous high of 54) and rushing yards (63) was needed for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to pull off a victory last Sunday night, and as stated, they could find themselves as the top seed in the conference by Sunday evening if they take care of business and Buffalo falls to Minnesota. A much more intimidating Jacksonville defense was lit up by Kansas City for 35.0 points per game in 2018/2019 matchups, so Sunday could be an offensive explosion if the Jaguars are unable to get to Mahomes considering their struggles in coverage versus a passing attack that’s as deep as ever. A full-blown shootout hasn’t really broken out yet for the Jags, but maybe Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne Jr. will be up to the challenge to give us a flashback performance from when the two were together at Clemson.


Winner: Kansas City Chiefs


CLE (3-5) @ MIA (6-3) 

Sunday, November 13 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS


I know the analytics crowd will argue that there is no correlation, but it’s no coincidence that Cleveland is 3-0 when Nick Chubb has 20+ carries and 0-5 when he is given fewer than 20 carries, so I’d hope that the bye week has Kevin Stefanski ready to feed his best player for a very difficult stretch (@ MIA, @ BUF, v TB) before Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension. Through eight games, Chubb is having his best season to date (841 rushing yards and ten rushing touchdowns with 5.6 yards per carry), and Miami is definitely vulnerable on the ground with 4.6 yards per carry allowed; I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chubb break a long run similar to Justin Fields against the Dolphins last week. My concern for the Browns is them being unable to cover Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, so the status of Denzel Ward (concussion) is extremely important—a ton of press coverage is what I would do to disrupt routes and make Tua Tagovailoa hold onto the ball a tick longer than he’d like to in a timing-based offense. The weather gives me pause (80+ degrees in Miami despite cold weather for every other game this weekend), but a rested Chubb is determined to make the playoffs can power a road upset.


Winner: Cleveland Browns


HOU (1-6-1) @ NYG (6-2)

Sunday, November 13 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS


Saquon Barkley is also rested coming off the bye, and the Texans are a great opponent to start the second half of the season against with an all-time terrible run defense (180.6 yards per game allowed). Frankly, it seems Houston is allergic to tackling at times, and Saquon is primed for a monster outing with the shoulder injury likely feeling better after a week off. At wide receiver, the pursuit of Odell Beckham Jr. has cooled off with the Cowboys emerging, but Kenny Golladay recently deemed himself healthy and would be a nice complement to Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson if he turns into a contributor. On the offensive line, No. 7 overall pick Evan Neal (knee) remains out, so New York needs to help Tyre Phillips on the right side to keep 34-year-old Jerry Hughes from again turning back the clock after his speed was a problem for Eagles left tackle Jordan Mailata in Week 9 (I don’t think Andrew Thomas would have any issues if Houston decided to try Hughes against him). If Davis Mills doesn’t carve up the blitz, the Giants can be 7-2 with a good chance to get to 8-2 before Thanksgiving.


Winner: New York Giants


NO (3-6) @ PIT (2-6)

Sunday, November 13 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX


Taysom Hill not being featured every week is a huge mistake by New Orleans, as his on-field presence alone strikes fear into opponents—with defensive coaches needing to game plan for the versatile runner/thrower and defenders trying not to get run through when Hill has the ball in his hands. Of course, the Steelers have had quite a bit of success containing Lamar Jackson over the years and could have the blueprint to slow down Hill if he’s unleashed, but matching him with Alvin Kamara can be a nightmare; I’m not sure why those two aren’t on the field together every play in scoring territory, and something needs to change quickly if the Saints to avoid giving a top-ten pick to the Eagles in 2023. For the Pittsburgh offense, Kenny Pickett needs to take care of the ball, and the Saints being one of the least opportunistic defenses in the league (two interceptions on the season) is a surprise. I’m not ready to give up on the Steelers’ playoff hopes with T.J. Watt (pectoral) set to return this weekend.


Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers


DEN (3-5) @ TEN (5-3)

Sunday, November 13 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS


Tennessee loves the style/toughness of Ryan Tannehill and drafted Malik Willis as an exciting player with the chance to develop into their future franchise quarterback, but being a contender in today’s NFL without a top-tier signal-caller speaks to how great of a coach Mike Vrabel is. While other teams follow analytics and lack an identity, you know what you’re getting from the Titans as they try to beat opponents up on both sides of the ball, and they’ll surely embrace what will be a likely slugfest this weekend versus a Denver defense that ranks No. 2 in the league both in yards per game (288.4) and points per game (16.5) allowed. Derrick Henry has actually been bottled up against the Broncos throughout his career with 58 carries for 186 scoreless yards (3.2 YPC) in three matchups, so I’d anticipate plenty of stacked boxes from Denver to make Willis win with his arm if Tannehill (ankle) is out again. The size of Courtland Sutton versus a trio of smaller cornerbacks and Russell Wilson torching the Titans in 2021 give me some pause, but this is a game Vrabel’s team should win at home.


Winner: Tennessee Titans


IND (3-5-1) @ LV (2-6)

Sunday, November 13 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS


The Colts replacing Frank Reich as head coach with former Pro Bowl center and ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday (on an interim basis) has been universally panned, but I really don’t see a problem with the outside-the-box hire. Why should a franchise—specifically owner Jim Irsay in this case—not make a move they believe in just because it’s a non-traditional hire? For his part, Saturday has been very impressive at the podium this week (perhaps not a surprise considering his media background), and it sounds like the players/coaches have truly bought in after his conversations with them. On Sunday, the first order of business for Saturday will be a recommitment to Jonathan Taylor, and the superstar runner saying he feels healthy following a week off with his lingering ankle injury is a tremendous sign for the chances of not only him having a big game, but also having the Colts possibly turning their season around. I wouldn’t be surprised if this weekend was a blowout with the Raiders placing both Hunter Renfrow (oblique) and Darren Waller (hamstring) on injured reserve as the season continues to spiral for them.


Winner: Indianapolis Colts


DAL (6-2) @ GB (3-6) 

Sunday, November 13 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX


Speaking of spiraling, the Packers have lost five games in a row since a 3-1 start, and Aaron Rodgers already has seven interceptions on the season—showing signs of the struggling quarterback we saw at the end of Mike McCarthy’s tenure with Green Bay. To open up the passing attack, the Packers are yet another offense that should feature their running backs, and Aaron Jones (ankle) being healthy would be huge taking on a Dallas team that he’s dominated in two career matchups (158.0 total yards per game and five total touchdowns). The balance would at least slow down game-wrecker Micah Parsons on the edge this week, and it’d also help set up play-action shots, so keep an eye on rookie Christian Watson (concussion) versus Trevon Diggs on a double move. Defensively, Green Bay losing Rashan Gary (knee) for the season is a massive loss, but the run defense needs to be prepared to stop Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard with the Cowboys mastering the offensive balance that other teams should strive for. This is a game I’m on the fence about, though, and the temperatures in the low 30s at Lambeau Field has me believing the Packers can get it done with their backs against the wall.


Winner: Green Bay Packers


ARI (3-6) @ LAR (3-5)

Sunday, November 13 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX


Matthew Stafford not entering the concussion protocol until Wednesday might make it a longshot that he’s able to suit up this weekend, but a change could end up being a good thing for the Los Angeles offense with nothing else really working for them. Even another all-time great receiving campaign from Cooper Kupp hasn’t resulted in a league-average offense (or more importantly, wins), so perhaps John Wolford would be a boost to Allen Robinson II and others—in turn giving the Rams a more balanced attack when Stafford is back after getting to see things from a different perspective. Remember, Robinson drawing rave reviews in the summer came with Wolford taking a lot of first-team reps as Stafford dealt with his elbow issue, and I’m also excited to see Kyren Williams (ankle) return to potentially takeover the backfield as another factor that can spark Sean McVay’s offense. Whether it’s Stafford or Walford under center, LA has more talent and can be strike two on the three-game NFC West stretch this month for Arizona.


Winner: Los Angeles Rams


LAC (5-3) @ SF (4-4)

Sunday, November 13 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC


Another season-ending injury for cornerback Jason Verrett (Achilles) is absolutely demoralizing, but the 49ers are mostly getting healthier following the bye week with Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and others back—while the Chargers sound like they’ll again be without Mike Williams (ankle) and Keenan Allen (hamstring) on offense. Even if both sides were at full strength, I don’t like the matchup for Los Angeles based on how Brandon Staley’s defense has played, and Christian McCaffrey could go off with the unit allowing an NFL-high 5.7 yards per carry (not to mention Samuel possibly getting carries to give viewers our first look at him and McCaffrey being fully unleashed together). Furthermore, Jimmy Garoppolo has played outstanding if we put aside the shaky first start of the year, as he has a 17-game pace of 4,508 yards and a 31:10 touchdown-interception ratio since the start of October. I just hope we see the star power on the field for LA next week when they get another Sunday Night Football game with the Chiefs visiting SoFi Stadium, as this week’s primetime showdown won’t be easy.


Winner: San Francisco 49ers


WAS (4-5) @ PHI (8-0)

Monday, November 14 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN


The Eagles are fortunate to have an extended mini bye with last week’s Thursday Night Football game being followed up by a Monday Night Football game to close out Week 10, but their weaknesses are starting to show themselves more despite still being undefeated. The obvious flaw right now is the run defense struggling without Jordan Davis (ankle), so it’s crucial that Philadelphia gets their star rookie to 100% by not rushing his return—if Davis is back on the field too quickly and not the same kind of force, an early playoff exit is very possible. In the trenches on the other side of the ball, Jalen Hurts has quietly been sacked 11 times over the past three games, so the group needs to play better with Chase Young (knee) set to boost a feared Washington front if he makes his season debut on Monday night. Still, the strengths for Philadelphia are what makes them so good with Hurts playing at an MVP level, A.J. Brown continuing to prove himself as a superstar, and the secondary being arguably the stingiest in the league; I don’t see them falling at home as double-digit favorites.


Winner: Philadelphia Eagles