It will probably be derailed with some quarterback news today, but I am assuming that Aaron Rodgers will return to Green Bay (despite the winds blowing in the opposite direction this week), Derek Carr will sign with the Jets, and Jimmy Garoppolo will go to Las Vegas for the purposes of this pre-combine mock. Next week, we’ll have new positional rankings and an updated big board.
1. HOU (mock trade w/ CHI): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Ideally, a trade between the Bears and teams pursuing the No. 1 overall pick will happen before the 2022 NFL Draft to make mocks a whole lot easier. For now, I’ll continue to guess Houston is the most eager to select Young—a highly intelligent passer with elite playmaking ability.
2. CHI (mock trade w/ HOU): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Some have suggested Chicago should trade down twice to maximize their return, but would they be willing to miss out on their choice out of Carter or Will Anderson Jr.? The mainstream opinion seems to be that Carter is the more likely pick for general manager Ryan Poles if he’s on the board.
3. ARI: Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama
Arizona is another candidate to trade down, as the new regime of general manager Monti Ossenfort and head coach Jonathan Gannon could get a collection of picks to shape the roster. Again, though, the discussion will be whether Anderson is too good to pass up.
4. IND: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Perhaps the eagerness of team owner Jim Irsay to get a quarterback will have the Colts moving up to No. 1, but is Chris Ballard—who often sticks to “prototypes”—willing to give up the farm for Bryce Young? Richardson might be the high-upside target Indy feels they need to compete with the superstar quarterbacks in the AFC.
5. CAR: (mock trade w/ SEA via DEN): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Carolina could be a player for Derek Carr or could surprise with another veteran acquisition at quarterback based on how open the NFC South appears to be. If not, Stroud would land in a nice spot on a roster with a very good offensive line and a young defense already in place.
6. DET (via LAR): Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Porter isn’t getting top-ten buzz like I thought he would be heading into the combine, and many seem to have Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez going here. That said, general manager Brad Holmes has been a top-tier evaluator since he was hired, and Porter would be a home-run selection.
7. LV: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
The Raiders are the wild card for quarterback-needy teams in the top ten, but going with a rookie doesn’t seem to mesh with their roster. Instead, Wilson is a freaky edge defender that will help Maxx Crosby get after Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the AFC West.
8. ATL: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Robinson was slotted here in the first mock, and I still believe Atlanta is playing the long game by targeting a signal-caller in 2024 after building up the rest of the roster. A rookie being surrounded by top-ten picks at running back, wide receiver, and tight end would set them up for immediate success.
9. SEA (mock trade w/ CAR): Lukas Van Ness, OLB, Iowa
Van Ness has a strong case to be a top-ten selection based on his raw power and upside, so Seattle would do well to move back and get a great complement for Uchenna Nwosu. Even with Pete Carroll suggesting it’s in play, I doubt the Seahawks would draft a quarterback early if Geno Smith is re-signed.
10. PHI (via NO): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Philadelphia probably can’t bring back James Bradberry, and Darius Slay will turn 33 at the end of next season. Adding an all-around cornerback like Witherspoon along with increased roles for Jordan Davis (who was dominant before a high-ankle sprain) and Nakobe Dean would boost an Eagles defense that was probably overhyped in 2022.
11. TEN: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Taylor Lewan officially being released opens a huge hole at left tackle, and Jones could fill his shoes in the same draft slot at No. 11 overall. The athletic blindside protector allowed zero sacks last season and would bring physicality opening lanes for Derrick Henry.
12. HOU (via CLE): Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
It makes sense for the Texans to bolster their defensive line considering what new head coach DeMeco Ryans was working with in San Francisco—and Murphy can become a star with increased development. For those insisting on a wideout here, remember that John Metchie III (who missed his rookie campaign as he battled Leukemia) was a top-50 pick last spring and caught passes from Bryce Young at Alabama.
13. NYJ: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Skoronski usually goes higher than this in mocks, and I almost gave him to Las Vegas as an option at either guard or right tackle. Based on how the Jets have struggled to form a coherent offensive line despite the efforts of Joe Douglas, it makes sense for them to be sure pass protection isn’t a weakness for what feels like a playoffs-or-bust year for the current regime.
14. NE: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
New England has DeVante Parker as the big-bodied perimeter target and Tyquan Thornton as the field-stretching speedster, so Smith-Njigba is a natural fit between them as a dominant slot target at Ohio State. Many have suggested there is a “ceiling” on him, but I’d argue Smith-Njigba has more star potential than any wideout in the class.
15. GB: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
As stated, I’m doing this mock under the impression that Aaron Rodgers will be back with the Packers, and he’d surely love a weapon like Kincaid—who I compared to Travis Kelce. The play style of Kincaid and having Christian Watson threatening opponents with his speed could help erase or shorten the usual learning curve for rookie tight ends.
16. WAS: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Drama surrounding the sale of the franchise might cloud things some, but Washington appears to be in very good position to become a contender if the right buttons are pushed. Adding a couple of cornerbacks should be one of their priorities, and Gonzalez fits their coverage profile on the outside.
17. PIT: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
I don’t think offensive line is as much of an issue as others do, but Pittsburgh still needs help at cornerback—and they clearly know it after William Jackson III didn’t pan out as a midseason acquisition in 2022. Ringo has a rare combination of speed, size, and athleticism.
18. DET: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Branch is a good long-term fit alongside last year’s standout rookie Kerby Joseph on the backend, as the Alabama product is better in the slot or closer to the line of scrimmage. There is also smoke connecting him to Washington to basically fill the role vacated by the recently released Bobby McCain.
19. TB: Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia
The Buccaneers need more juice off the edge, and Smith fits the billing to be the successor to Shaquil Barrett (who is recovering from a torn Achilles). Depending on how the roster looks after free agency, Tampa Bay might be a logical candidate to trade down.
20. SEA: Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
Last year, the Seahawks were able to bolster their pass protection with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, and this first-round haul would give them a power rusher in Lukas Vas Ness and an athletic, blitzing linebacker in Sanders.
21. LAC: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
This pick is under the impression that Jamaree Salyer will transition back to left guard with Rashawn Slater returning—giving the Chargers an outstanding young duo on each side with Wright sliding in next to Zion Johnson. The high-flying Los Angeles offense would be a comfortable landing spot after Wright played in the explosive Tennessee spread attack.
22. BAL: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Lamar Jackson remains a major wild card that could impact the entire NFL offseason, but the Ravens need more weapons no matter who is under center. Addison would fit nicely alongside Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews in Todd Monken’s offense.
23. MIN: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The early returns on Minnesota’s 2022 draft class weren’t great, so this is a crucial draft for general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to avoid a step back in 2023. Flowers would bring speed and explosiveness along with an underrated possession skillset to pair with Justin Jefferson.
24. JAX: Bryan Bresee, DE, Clemson
Bresee is the type of gamble that the Jaguars might decide to take under GM Trent Baalke, and he’d have plenty of one-on-one opportunities in Jacksonville with Josh Allen and Travon Walker on the edge. Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer was originally the pick here before talk this week about Evan Engram being a good bet to re-sign or get the franchise tag.
25. NYG: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Some might not see a fit for Johnston here after things didn’t work out for the big-bodied Kenny Golladay in New York—but the TCU weapon is a completely different style player as more of a finesse wideout. The duo of Johnston (six-foot-four) and Wan’Dale Robinson (five-foot-eight) would complement each other very well.
26. DAL: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
Hyatt is a fit in Dallas not only because of the damage he can do himself as a deep threat, but also because of how much his speed would open things up for CeeDee Lamb and the running game. A trio of Lamb, Hyatt, and Michael Gallup would erase any questions about the Dallas weaponry.
27. BUF: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
Torrence was here in the first mock, and he’d be an interior bodyguard for Josh Allen—forming an intimidating duo with Spencer Brown on the right side of the line. Just to throw it out there, I’d offer this pick to the Browns for Nick Chubb if that’s an option.
28. CIN: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Hayden Hurst could end up re-signing with the Bengals, but Mayer would be another young pass-catcher to grow with Joe Burrow. As slot receiver Tyler Boyd enters the final year of his contract, Cincinnati would look to Mayer as the third option behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
29. NO (from DEN via SF): Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Finding a spot for Levis was the most difficult part of this mock, and the Saints liking him enough to take here doesn’t necessarily mean they would move up (remember, the Ravens took Lamar Jackson at No. 32 overall after previously selecting Hayden Hurst at No. 25 overall back in the 2018 NFL Draft). The arm talent of Levis would match the speed of New Orleans.
30. PHI: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Perhaps it’d overlap too much with Kenneth Gainwell’s game, but Gibbs is the perfect fit with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in my opinion. The needs for Philadelphia could be changed significantly depending on who they are able to re-sign this month.
31. KC: BJ Ojulari, DE, LSU
You can never have too many pass rushers, and Ojulari is more of a speed rusher to bookend the powerful George Karlaftis as a long-term duo up front. The Chiefs have other guys to stop the run while Ojulari improves that part of his game.