Mock 3.0 is the first since Carolina moved up to No. 1 overall and Jalen Carter’s legal issues surfaced, but more importantly, free agency gives us a much clearer look at the landscape of the league. Remember, the purpose of a mock draft is to predict rather than provide opinions about what I would personally do, but our positional rankings and big board will be updated early next week.
1. CAR (via CHI): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The betting markets having Stroud as a heavy favorite to go No. 1 combined with the way quarterbacks coach Josh McCown has gushed over him gives the Ohio State passer the edge over who I believe is the best player in the class (Bryce Young). Carolina’s staff likely believes they are going to assemble a well-oiled machine that Stroud can efficiently run.
2. HOU: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Young feels like the guy for Houston, and head coach DeMeco Ryans has suggested they are comfortable with two signal-callers here—the intrigue would be who they go with if Young is off the board. The former Heisman winner is the total package on and off the field.
3. ARI: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
There is a ton of smoke about Arizona wanting to move back, and there’s also some smoke about them targeting Wilson—even over fellow edge defender Will Anderson Jr. I’d say Las Vegas is the team to keep an eye on moving up, but executives might want to wisely hold onto their 2024 draft capital considering the strength of next year’s quarterback class.
4. IND: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
For the skeptics, Richardson is well worth an early selection based on not only his upside, but also the clear foundation he has in terms of how to play the position. The question is if Chris Ballard will finally take the chance on a signal-caller—or might he set his sights on Lamar Jackson following the draft?
5. SEA (via DEN): Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama
This would be an absolute dream for Seattle, as Anderson is arguably the best player in the class, and he is a perfect pairing with Uchenna Nwosu on the other side. Anderson totaled 34.5 sacks and 58.5 tackles for loss in three seasons at Alabama.
6. DET (via LAR): Nolan Smith, DE, Georgia
Smith to Detroit isn’t one that I have seen before, but he was a borderline top-ten prospect for us before blowing up the Combine, and Dan Campbell will likely love his leadership qualities. The 22-year-old compares favorably to All-Pro pass rusher Haason Reddick.
7. LV: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Cornerback seems to be the major hole for Las Vegas, and Gonzalez—with top-tier speed and fluidity—is the classic Raiders pick. This could also be a spot for a trade down if Josh McDaniels has his eyes on a quarterback from the 2024 class.
8. ATL: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
I’ve slotted Robinson here in all three mock drafts, and a run-heavy offense would be one to get the most out of a top-ten selection on an elite running back. The Falcons are another franchise that might wait until after the draft to go after Lamar Jackson—giving them an exciting quartet of Jackson, Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts.
9. CHI (via CAR): Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Johnson Jr. feels like a Ryan Poles selection to me, and he would slot in at right tackle to complete Chicago’s new-look offense (though I’d expect them to target a running back on Day 2). If not, the defensive line is the obvious area that needs to be upgraded.
10. PHI (via NO): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
I’m skeptical about any team taking Carter in the first half of Round 1, and a slip into Day 2 would not be a shock. That said, many in the media have labeled him as the best talent in the class, and Philadelphia might feel they have the structure in place—including former Georgia teammates Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean—to get the best out of Carter.
11. TEN: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Left tackle is the primary weakness for Tennessee, and it needs to be filled if they are going to compete with Derrick Henry still in his prime as a top offensive weapon. Jones has a very high ceiling based on his impressive play at Georgia.
12. HOU (via CLE): Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Porter seems to be a polarizing prospect, but he’s a ready-made fit for DeMeco Ryans’ defense—and would make Houston very difficult to throw on in tandem with Derek Stingley Jr. I don’t see wide receiver being a huge priority here with John Metchie III essentially being a part of the 2023 draft class.
13. NYJ: Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa
The Jets targeting a prospect that plays in the trenches is a safe bet, so Van Ness—even with a solid collection of talent on the edge for New York—gets slotted here based on his upside. Former first-rounder Mekhi Becton having worked himself into tremendous shape could be the boost needed on the offensive line with Aaron Rodgers likely coming to town.
14. NE: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Witherspoon usually goes higher than this, but he is the prototypical New England cornerback with the ability to play man or zone coverage at a high level. Because of how important Rhamondre Stevenson is to the offense, I don’t buy any talk of them targeting Bijan Robinson or another running back this early.
15. GB: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Green Bay has often targeted traits in recent years, so maybe Kincaid—as an “older” prospect turning 24 in October—won’t be the pick. However, he’s two weeks younger than Travis Kelce was when he entered the league, and there isn’t a better selection to make here if the goal is having Jordan Love be successful.
16. JAX (mock trade w/ WAS): Peter Skoronski, G, Northwestern
The offensive line for Jacksonville needs to do a bit of shuffling after losing Jawaan Taylor in free agency, so making a move for Skoronski would solidify the left side by slotting in between Cam Robinson and Luke Fortner. Cornerback is the other position to keep an eye on.
17. PIT: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Harrison is a prospect that will move up considerably in our next big board (releasing on Tuesday), and while Dan Moore Jr. has been solid on the blindside for Pittsburgh, Harrison could help take the group to the next level. Don’t sleep on Mike Tomlin and the Steelers with Kenny Pickett expected to take a leap in Year 2.
18. BUF (mock trade w/ DET): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Buffalo being connected to wideouts could result in a trade up for one, and Smith-Njigba is well worth the price as a clean fit between Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Florida guard O’Cyrus Torrence is another name to keep an eye on if the Bills were to sit tight at No. 27 overall.
19. TB: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Talk of Tristan Wirfs moving over to left tackle would come to fruition with this selection, and Tampa Bay’s pass protection would be greatly improved compared to a season ago. Wright is a very good pass blocker with flashes of dominance in the running game.
20. SEA: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
As stated with Joey Porter Jr., Ringo is another polarizing cornerback—but with a more extreme range of outcomes that could see him slide out of the first round altogether. Still, the Seahawks can develop him behind Michael Jackson in 2023, and the future duo of Tariq Woolen and Ringo has the potential to be the best in football.
21. LAC: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
Khalil Mack will remain in Los Angeles this season, but the team would clear over $23 million off the books by releasing him next year—making Murphy a logical investment if he falls here. Plus, the depth isn’t great on the edge for the Chargers, so Murphy would be counted on for a sizeable role as a rookie despite not being a starter.
22. BAL: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Baltimore fans might go crazy if they don’t take a wide receiver here, but Banks is a local product that fits their scheme and fills a need with Marcus Peters departed (assuming he doesn’t re-sign). Look for a ton of press coverage with Marlon Humphrey and Banks if this pick becomes a reality.
23. MIN: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Reading the tea leaves of free agency, Minnesota signing Brandon Powell could signal the role they have in mind for Flowers with the ability to do damage on designed touches. K.J. Osborn has proven ready for a larger role, but more is needed behind Justin Jefferson.
24. WAS (mock trade w/ JAX): O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida
Washington signed Nick Gates to play center and Andrew Wylie to play right tackle, so adding Torrence (right guard) completes the puzzle on the offensive line with Sam Cosmi, Andrew Nowell, and others competing at left guard. Torrence is big and powerful to boost a run-heavy offense.
25. NYG: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
New York has a bunch of options at wide receiver with their signing and re-signings, but none have the skillset that Johnston does with unique field-stretching ability at six-foot-three. I’d imagine opponents would fear the Giants a lot more with Darren Waller and Johnston moving the safeties back to take pressure off Saquon Barkley.
26. DAL: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Dallas has a couple of second-year options in Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot to fill the void left by Dalton Schultz, but Mayer might remind Jerry Jones of Jason Witten—and would give the offense a very impressive group of skill-position talent with Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, and Mayer.
27. DET (mock trade w/ BUF): Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
Another prospect out of Georgia that I’m sure Dan Campbell would love, Washington can block like a sixth offensive lineman and has untapped potential in the passing game. It’s easy to see offensive coordinator Ben Johnson getting the most out of Washington down the seams and on over routes.
28. CIN: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Smith going this late would be a steal, and Cincinnati’s roster having limited holes allows them the luxury of taking the best player available. Chidobe Awuzie is still young at 28 (in May), but he’s coming off a torn ACL, so Smith would allow the Bengals to bring him along slowly while Smith starts across from Cam Taylor-Britt.
29. NO (from DEN via SF): Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
Kancey could go higher than this, and Adetomiwa Adebawore is another defensive lineman that was a late removal—but could be a target for a team like the Bears in a possible trade down (or move back up). Any size concerns about Kancey might be lessened considering the bigger options New Orleans has on the edge.
30. PHI: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Gibbs would add another element to the already deadly Philadelphia offense due to his ability to rip off chunk yardage—including as a pass-catcher. A four-man backfield of Rashaad Penny (with Trey Sermon behind him as insurance), Kenneth Gainwell, and Gibbs would be exciting.
31. KC: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
It would almost be unfair for the Chiefs to get Jones as a cheap replacement for Orlando Brown Jr., as he’d arguably carry more upside at a fraction of the cost. At six-foot-eight, the Ohio State right tackle is a wall in pass protection to keep Patrick Mahomes upright for at least the next five years.