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AP Photo/Adam Hunger

2023 NFL Teams Most Likely Teams To Go From Worst To First In Their Division


The parity-filled NFL allows teams to quickly become contenders like no other sport, with at least one team going from worst to first within their division in 18 of the past 20 seasons. The start of the summer has me ready for the fall, and looking ahead this is how I rank teams’ chances of finishing first in their division in 2023 after finishing at the bottom last year.

 

8. Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray is coming off a torn ACL, DeAndre Hopkins was just released, first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon has already been on the defense against media and fans—things don’t look great for the Cardinals right now after they became arguably the NFL’s worst roster under the previous regime. The Cardinals are given +18000 odds to win the Super Bowl, which says a lot about where they stand. It would be shocking if it doesn’t take at least a year or two to have a shot at contending in the NFC West.

 

7. Washington Commanders

The strength of the NFC East is what has the Commanders as the team with the second-worst chance of going from worst to first, as the Eagles look like the most powerful roster in the NFC, the Cowboys are right behind them, and the Giants made positive offseason moves to build off their surprising first season under Brian Daboll. It doesn’t feel like Ron Rivera’s squad has the upside to win the NFC East. However, we are approaching nearly two decades without the division having a repeat champion, and maybe the Commanders break through and become the surprise team of 2023.

 

6. Houston Texans

Like the Cardinals, the Texans are currently given +18000 odds to win the Super Bowl (perhaps partly due to having a rookie quarterback in No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud). But in terms of looking to win the division, I believe they have a better shot in what should be a weaker AFC South compared to the NFC West. I am very high on DeMeco Ryans as a head coach, and Houston might have the offensive line and run game led by Dameon Pierce to play a style of football that keeps them in games. If the Jaguars somehow take a step back and the Titans and Colts can’t improve from their down 2022 campaigns, perhaps the Texans can make a divisional push.

 

5. Denver Broncos

Sean Payton’s arrival in Denver brings a ton of excitement for the Broncos, and I’m optimistic that Russell Wilson and the offense can get on track after a dreadful season last year. The Broncos are down at No. 5, though, as it’s tough to see them immediately toppling the Chiefs—not to mention the Chargers having a stacked roster led by star quarterback Justin Herbert. And maybe the Raiders even take a step forward in Year 2 under Josh McDaniels. Overall, wild-card contention feels more likely than an AFC West title.

 

4. Chicago Bears

The Bears are a trendy pick to take a huge step in 2023 after an aggressive offseason that included trading out of the No. 1 overall pick and building around third-year quarterback Justin Fields (including the acquisition of wide receiver D.J. Moore in the Panthers trade). But, while Fields has impressed me and can be a major force with refinement as a passer, I’m not quite as high on Chicago as others might be—and there was a lot of work to do after a 3-14 season.

 

3. Cleveland Browns

The Bengals eventually won eight consecutive games and won the division at 12-4 last year, but the AFC North was relatively tight and every team won at least seven games. For the Browns to take down Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh, they’ll need Deshaun Watson to look more like the player he was with the Texans—if not, it could be a long season. The Browns defense obviously must improve and be more consistent, and new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz should provide a boost to help complement Nick Chubb and the ground game on the other side of the ball for Kevin Stefanski.

 

2. New York Jets

It should be stated that I wasn’t as high on the Jets last year and I’m not as sure they’ll be Super Bowl contenders even after adding Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. But there’s no question of the upside Robert Saleh’s squad possesses. Getting running back Breece Hall and offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker will be awesome after they were sorely missed for most of last season, and they’ll help after the six consecutive losses to end the year. I’m not discounting the Patriots getting back on track after some tight losses last season, the Dolphins look to make a leap, and the Bills are a potential juggernaut; but, again, there’s a high ceiling for the Jets to go from worst to first.

 

1. Atlanta Falcons

The NFC South was not pretty in 2022, and there should be an opening for one of the four teams to take control after the Bucs won the division at 8-9 with Tom Brady at quarterback and the other three squads finished 7-10. The Saints added Derek Carr, and the Panthers are very intriguing after moving up for Bryce Young, but the Falcons have quietly built somewhat of a bully-like roster and have three top-ten picks (Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bijan Robinson) at the skill positions. They were 6-3 at home last season, and Arthur Smith’s third season at the helm could be a breakthrough—especially in the NFC South.