This should be among the closest years ever for voting across 2024 NFL awards. To claim there should be an obvious uncontested pick for honors like MVP, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year is simply wrong given the number of worthy candidates. Award winners won’t be named until NFL Honors in February just before the Super Bowl, but these are my selections fresh off the end of the regular season.
MVP: Josh Allen, Bills
Unlike last season when there was no clear MVP in part because no one really had a totally overwhelming MVP-level campaign—with respect to what guys like Lamar Jackson (the winner), Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey, and Josh Allen did—this year had a bunch of players that would have a shot to win most years. However, it’s ultimately expected to be a two-person race between Allen and Jackson. It’s extremely close, but I’m going with Allen—and context is key.
You might remember this offseason when the Bills traded star receiver Stefon Diggs, and many said Allen’s production would decline and that he was essentially a product of Diggs. There was talk of Buffalo as a team taking a big step back given the roster overhaul, with the Dolphins and Jets poised to take over in the AFC East. Well, Allen was as good as ever, with 41 total touchdowns throwing to a supporting cast that dealt with changes and injuries all year. Led by the superhuman efforts of Allen, the Bills beat the juggernaut No. 1 seeds in each conference, and Buffalo finished second in the NFL in scoring, behind only Detroit. They are nowhere close to that without Allen. The superstar quarterback took just 14 sacks, and—while Buffalo has an excellent offensive line—a lot of that is a credit to him and his ability to avoid sacks and get rid of the ball.
The MVP moments should also be mentioned, with Allen breaking a 26-yard touchdown to seal the win over the Chiefs (and perhaps preventing an unbeaten regular season), diving for the pylon on what was statistically a touchdown pass to himself versus the 49ers, and exploding for 430 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-42 upset at Detroit.
In my opinion it wouldn’t be as egregious as last year, when I don’t think Jackson should have been named MVP. But it’d be very weird if the voters suddenly went with the best statistical year after whatever they did in 2023 (and I’m as big of a Lamar Jackson fan as anyone).
Offensive Player of the Year: Saquon Barkley, Eagles
Offensive Player of the Year should arguably be close, too, with a bunch of those quarterbacks, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, and triple crown winner Ja’Marr Chase in the mix. But what Saquon Barkley did in his first season in Philadelphia, becoming the ninth 2,000-yard rusher in NFL history (and doing it in 16 games, sitting Week 18), has earned him the honor. The case for Barkley is obvious, so I’ll just say that the case against him would be that Philadelphia’s offensive line being elite allowed him to go untouched on a bunch of his long touchdown runs. However, Barkley’s top-tier acceleration and speed helped him take advantage of those massive holes and torch defenses all year.
Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Surtain II, Broncos
I’ll start with the less obvious part of Patrick Surtain II’s game: He is a good run defender and didn’t miss a tackle this season. According to Next Gen Stats, Surtain allowed the fewest yards (306), fewest yards allowed per coverage snap (0.6), and had the lowest target rate in coverage (10.9%) among players with at least 400 coverage snaps. So, he was a lockdown corner, and against five Pro Bowlers (Zay Flowers, Jerry Jeudy, Ja’Marr Chase, Travis Kelce, and Brock Bowers), Surtain covered them for 92 routes and allowed just six receptions (on 16 targets) for 56 yards and had two interceptions—good for an 8.3 quarterback rating in those situations. On top of all that was a 100-yard pick-six to spark a Denver win in Week 5, leading their run to a playoff spot.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Bo Nix, Broncos
The mainstream narrative is unsurprisingly that Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is the runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year—and he’s no doubt a very deserving choice—because these people were criticizing Bo Nix before he was even drafted. So, people might not realize Nix was not only a worthy OROY but also immediately one of the best quarterbacks in the league as a rookie.
Nix’s 34 total touchdowns were the third most by a rookie in NFL history, behind only Justin Herbert (36) and Cam Newton (35); and he threw for the second most touchdowns as a rookie in history. Nix became the first rookie to ever have a game with 300+ passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and an 80% completion percentage—and he did it twice (joining Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers as the only players ever to do that). His seven games with 200+ passing yards and two-plus passing touchdowns are the most ever by a rookie. A 10-game stretch of 20+ total touchdowns and two or fewer turnovers was only done by guys named Brady, Brees, Mahomes, and Rodgers over the past decade—and they weren’t rookies. Finally, Nix delivered some of the best highlights of the season, from a Monday Night Football rope to the longest completion of the season in terms of air yards and a clutch game-tying touchdown in a Week 17 thriller at Cincinnati. He did this without much of a run game, far fewer high-end weapons than most top quarterbacks, and a roster with nearly $90 million in dead cap space.
In addition to Daniels, I also want to mention that Raiders tight end Brock Bowers, Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers, and Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving were all also outstanding in their first NFL seasons.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jared Verse, Rams
The defensive rookie class wasn’t as successful as the guys on the other side of the ball (not a surprise when the first 14 picks of the draft were on offense), but Rams defender Jared Verse had a very strong campaign in helping Los Angeles play solid defense and win the NFC West. Verse racked up 66 tackles and 4.5 sacks as an integral player in the Rams’ defensive front, and a three-game stretch of 3.5 sacks (at least 1.0 in each game) in middle of the season coincided with LA erasing their slow start to the year and catching fire en route to another playoff berth.
Neither will win Defensive Rookie of the Year, but I also want to mention that I believe 49ers rookies cornerback Renardo Green and safety Malik Mustapha should be on some ballots—and could be a force in the coming years with San Francisco.
Comeback Player of the Year: Joe Burrow, Bengals
A major honorable mention goes to Bills safety Damar Hamlin, who went from 17 snaps last season to 810 snaps in 2024 in a continued return from his January 2023 cardiac arrest on the field—and he played well in a large role on one of the league’s top teams. If Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow wasn’t such a great candidate, I’d give the nod to Hamlin. Burrow came back from a serious wrist injury to throw for 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns for a team that worked its way to a 9-8 mark with a shot to make the playoffs until the final Sunday of the season.
Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell, Lions
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and Broncos head coach Sean Payton are among those that should get serious Coach of the Year consideration in what should be a tight race. Given all the injuries the Lions have dealt with, I’m going with Dan Campbell. Aside from the very early onside kick against the Bills in December, basically every button Campbell pushed—doing it by trusting his gut and his players—in 2024 worked out. The mindset Campbell instills in his squad led to a powerhouse offense and a stingy defense that combined to lead a 15-2 record and the top seed in the NFC.