BAL @ KC
Thursday, September 5 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
The 2024 NFL Season kicks off with a rematch of the AFC Championship Game as Kansas City begins their quest for a three-peat versus the Ravens, but this iteration of the Chiefs is set to be more like early-career Patrick Mahomes when Hollywood Brown (shoulder) is back hopefully by next week and first-round speedster Xavier Worthy is used in a full-time role. For the opener, I’d expect things to revolve around Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, and Baltimore is a team that—for as great as they are defensively—hasn’t really presented problems for Mahomes, who has thrown for 377, 374, 385, and 343 yards with a 12:2 touchdown-interception ratio in four career matchups in the regular season. The key for the Ravens to slow down Mahomes and exercise the demons of their playoff loss is to feed Derrick Henry to keep Andy Reid’s attack off the field, and Lamar Jackson is highly determined with tonight potentially having implications on homefield advantage four months from now. Look for Rashod Bateman to be the X-factor, but it’s tough to pick against the defending champs to lose on opening night for the second year in a row.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
GB @ PHI
Friday, September 6 | 8:15 PM ET (Brazil) | Peacock
I don’t agree with the NFL playing a game in Brazil, and them banning X (formerly known as Twitter) for political reasons should frankly be reason for them to pull the game and play in the States—not to mention players being warned to stay in their hotel and other factors. Focusing on the game itself, the Packers and Eagles are both definite Super Bowl contenders, and each side has talent on defense that should be unlocked by new defensive coaching staffs. Green Bay will be extremely aggressive, but I have questions about the run defense based on recent years, and new Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should have answers for pressure brought by Jeff Hafley. On the other side, Philadelphia having a healthy Nakobe Dean at linebacker to roam behind former college teammates Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter is exciting, and we’ll see how the revamped secondary performs versus the deep collection of weapons for the Packers. Friday night should be very close and I’m curious to see how first-round cornerback Quinyon Mitchell holds up versus Romeo Doubs and others, but I have confidence in Jalen Hurts using his arm and legs to get the job done.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
PIT @ ATL
Sunday, September 8 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Steelers and Falcons will each look quite a bit different this season, and that’s largely due to the quarterback changes with Pittsburgh adding Russell Wilson (with Justin Fields behind him) and Atlanta signing Kirk Cousins to a huge deal (with No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. drafted to be the quarterback of the future). The Falcons could never figure out the quarterback situation when Arthur Smith was there as head coach, so it’ll probably be frustrating for the new Steelers offensive coordinator to see Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts be unleashed by a Pro Bowl quarterback in Cousins—who doesn’t appear on the injury report coming off a torn Achilles that ended his Vikings tenure. That said, Pittsburgh will certainly make things difficult on Atlanta’s offense, including shutdown cornerback Joey Porter Jr. perhaps eliminating London while the defensive front keys on bottling up Robinson; if so, the Falcons will need Kyle Pitts (hamstring) to be himself after he was limited in practice to start the week. Either way, I’m expecting a somewhat low-scoring game, which plays more to Pittsburgh’s advantage if Wilson can take care of the ball.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
ARI @ BUF
Sunday, September 8 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Buffalo is another one of the many teams that will look quite a bit different compared to recent years, but having arguably the best player in the NFL with Josh Allen under center should prevent a decline—and the offense could even operate at a higher level without needing to worry about targets for Stefon Diggs. The passing attack will now be led by Dalton Kincaid as rookie wideout Keon Coleman comes along, and I’m anticipating a heavy dose of Khalil Shakir (13.6 yards per target and the only returning wide receiver for the Bills) and Kincaid on Sunday for what could be a shootout. Defensively, Greg Rousseau might finally put everything together to go from good to great, and Buffalo is banking on Von Miller to be more like himself after not recording a sack in his return from a torn ACL in 2023. Arizona has the weapons on offense with James Conner, Trey McBride, and No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. to put up points, but I’m not sure the defense is at the level to slow down Allen and company at home.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
TEN @ CHI
Sunday, September 8 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The interconference matchup between the Titans and Bears is an interesting case study on two different paths to hopeful contention, as Tennessee is trying to spend their way to the top with a bunch of veteran additions under general manager Ran Carthon, while Chicago has mostly built through the draft to set things up for liftoff with No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams at quarterback. Bears general manager Ryan Poles making a huge miscalculation with the Chase Claypool trade a couple of years ago has been overcome in large part due to the trade with Carolina ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft, and the Bears at least have a clear idea of how they want to build the roster. This week, DJ Moore versus L’Jarius Sneed (if used in shadow coverage) will be a tremendous matchup, and Tennessee has three cornerbacks in Sneed, Roger McCreary, and Chidobe Awuzie to defend the Chicago trio of Moore, Keenan Allen, and top-ten pick Rome Odunze. As is usually the case, quarterback play is key, so I’m confident in saying Williams will be the answer for the Bears… and Will Levis is far less certain of a solution.
Winner: Chicago Bears
NE @ CIN
Sunday, September 8 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
New England is going with Jacoby Brissett over No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye to begin the season, and the state of the offensive line seems to be a significant factor in the decision with the Patriots not wanting to throw Maye into the fire. Frankly, the team seems to lack direction to begin the post-Bill Belichick era—whether it be contradicting or strange comments by head coach Jerod Mayo, reshuffling the offensive line late into camp (including extending Michael Onwenu to play guard and then kicking him out to right tackle), clearly drafting for need despite claiming to believe in best player available, and more. Maybe the defense will pick up where it left off under Belichick after remaining a top unit despite losing Christian Gonzalez and others, but Joe Burrow had a normal offseason for the first time in his career, and I don’t anticipate another slow start for Cincinnati at home. If they are prepared to defend the screen game, the Bengals should control things on both sides of the ball to start 1-0.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
HOU @ IND
Sunday, September 8 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
For anyone that doesn’t pay too close attention to spring comments, you might have missed some legitimate bad blood between Houston and Indianapolis that was carried into the offseason—with Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin saying C.J. Stroud has “never beaten Anthony [Richardson]” after last year’s No. 2 overall pick discussed “cooking” Indy as a rookie. There were many more words from both sides, but Franklin is right by saying the Colts had a comfortable lead with Richardson healthy in the first matchup last September (an eventual 31-20 win for Indy), and the dual-threat quarterback has monster upside to present problems for the Texans and everyone else if he can stay healthy. The dominance of Jonathan Taylor versus Houston should also be pointed out with 135.2 rushing yards per game and eight total touchdowns in six career meetings, but the potential fatal flaw for Indy will be immediately tested as the cornerback group needs to contain Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell, so Stroud could have the clear upper hand in 2024.
Winner: Houston Texans
JAX @ MIA
Sunday, September 8 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
If you like offense, Jaguars-Dolphins will likely be the game to watch in the early afternoon slate—but that is not to discount the superstar playmakers on either defense with Josh Hines-Allen capable of taking over a game and Jalen Ramsey looking to make an impact versus the team that drafted him back in 2016. That said, Jacksonville seems to match up well versus Miami’s defense with Trevor Lawrence being able to avoid Ramsey and no clear option for him to shadow (something I expect to see more of under new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver) with Christian Kirk primarily in the slot, and the Dolphins might struggle to generate consistent pressure with Jaelan Phillips limited coming off a torn Achilles and first-round pick Chop Robinson playing his first NFL game. But if this game is about the offense, it’s tough to pick against Mike McDaniel’s explosive group at home, and I get the feeling De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill will both go off.
Winner: Miami Dolphins
CAR @ NO
Sunday, September 8 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Falcons and three-time defending champion Buccaneers are the favorites in the NFC South, but Carolina and New Orleans both expect to compete, so starting with a divisional win on Sunday would be huge for their respective chances. Based on how the Saints finished last year (4-2 record with close losses to the playoff-bound Lions and Rams) and their success versus the Panthers by limiting Bryce Young to 145.0 passing yards per game, they are the logical choice at home. I’m not entirely confident in the pick, though, and that’s due to believing in Young’s ability with a new coaching staff under Dave Canales set to unlock it after he dealt with horrible circumstances as a rookie. Looking ahead, the passing attack should be much more efficient playing through Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, and rookie Xavier Legette this season, but the Saints are stacked at cornerback to make things tough on Young in the opener.
Winner: New Orleans Saints
MIN @ NYG
Sunday, September 8 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
This is a game I’ve gone back and forth on, and Minnesota’s late move to sign Stephon Gilmore is one the Giants should have strongly considered, and I think he has a better chance of being an impact player for the Vikings than the returning Adoree’ Jackson does for New York. Nonetheless, both cornerback groups got needed reinforcements, and in particular, I’m intrigued by how electric rookie Malik Nabers will be defended in his NFL debut. Last season, the Vikings routinely double-teamed Davante Adams in a 3-0 win over the Raiders, but it’s easy to imagine defensive coordinator Brain Flores refusing to give that sort of initial respect to a first-year player in Nabers—who could be in for a monster campaign with Brian Daboll calling plays for the first time since being hired by the Giants. For the Minnesota offense, I have little doubt that Justin Jefferson will remain insanely productive with Sam Darnold under center, as decision-making is the concern rather than an ability to deliver the ball accurately and on-time. The quarterback that handles pressure better between Darnold and Daniel Jones will likely come out on top, and I still have belief in Jones if the offensive line can hold up.
Winner: New York Giants
LV @ LAC
Sunday, September 8 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
I don’t buy the Raiders or Chargers as legitimate contenders in 2024 because the rosters aren’t good enough in my opinion, but there is no denying each team will play hard led by head coaches in Antonio Pierce and Jim Harbaugh that want to control the line of scrimmage, play fundamentally sound, and know how to inspire their players. In a lot of ways, the two sides are a mirror image of one another, but Los Angeles has a franchise quarterback with Justin Herbert healthy following a summer foot issue, while Las Vegas struck out at the position under new general manager Tom Telesco. Ironically, the state of the LA roster is in bad shape because of Telesco, so Sunday will be a good first test for Harbaugh trying to make the most of what he has—although establishing the run could be a challenge with Christian Wilkins and Maxx Crosby on the defensive line for the Raiders (and I’m sure the duo will try to get in the head of No. 5 overall pick Joe Alt at right tackle). Plus, the Raiders should be better funneling targets to Davante Adams after an entire offseason to scheme things up, but the tiebreaker of quarterback and homefield advantage (in a factual sense being the Chargers) goes to Los Angeles.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
DEN @ SEA
Sunday, September 8 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
The Broncos are the most overlooked team in the league ahead of Week 1, and getting the right quarterback in Bo Nix should help overcome the holes that remain on the roster for a squad that finished a respectable 8-9 last year while turning into a significantly improved defense in the second half of the season. For those who don’t know, Nix was our No. 2 overall prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft as a quarterback with top-tier instincts and awareness, outstanding arm talent with highlight throws comparable to Patrick Mahomes, an extremely quick mind, great mobility, and more. The draw for his debut won’t be easy in front of the intense Seattle crowd, but Nix will be guided by Sean Payton’s direction, and a spread-the-wealth attack should make the Broncos difficult to prepare for. If the defense can contain DK Metcalf with Pat Surtain II and Kenneth Walker III doesn’t go crazy, I like Denver to pull off the upset as Nix puts the league on notice; and keep an eye on Marvin Mims Jr. both on offense and in the return game.
Winner: Denver Broncos
DAL @ CLE
Sunday, September 8 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
I’m not sure there has ever been a season where a franchise with Super Bowl aspirations had a head coach and quarterback both set to be free agents following the year, but that is the case in Dallas, which creates a situation where a team that hasn’t played well in the biggest spots will now be under the spotlight more than ever. In defense of Jerry Jones with seemingly everyone questioning the strategy, I wouldn’t be eager to pay Dak Prescott—for as good as he is—upwards of $60 million per year considering the lack of playoff success, and Cleveland will be a good early measuring stick for the Cowboys offense after Jim Schwartz’s defense ranked first in the NFL last season, including against the pass. The primary concern this week for Dallas is rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton being unable to block Myles Garrett, but I don’t expect to see a sharp Cleveland offense with Deshaun Watson not playing in the preseason and Nick Chubb (knee) out at least into October, so David Njoku needs to be played through like he was with Joe Flacco under center to end 2023.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
WAS @ TB
Sunday, September 8 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The Commanders have a new regime from top to bottom with ownership (which has said they didn’t really have a chance to import their vision last year), general manager, head coach, and quarterback all being new, but a bunch of veteran additions is an indication that they expect to compete in 2024. The first task for No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels will come against a very aggressive Tampa Bay defense that won’t hesitate to blitz, and if the reigning Heisman winner had a clear weakness at LSU, it was facing pressure without a clear outlet to escape (whether via throw or being able to find space as a runner). The Bucs don’t have a proven starter at cornerback behind Jamel Dean, but it might not matter after Washington traded away Jahan Dotson, and the screen game to Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler will be crucial to slow down the Tampa Bay pass rush. Even if the Commanders can move the ball offensively with Daniels having a strong debut, Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans might be too much to handle for Emmanuel Forbes Jr. and Benjamin St-Juste.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LAR @ DET
Sunday, September 8 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Matthew Stafford didn’t have a warm homecoming back in Detroit last postseason with a hostile fanbase obviously remembering that he wanted out, and most football fans were likely pulling for Jared Goff to topple his former team in the playoffs—which was sealed with a strike to Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Rams have a bunch of pride themselves and will want to avenge their loss, but the Lions have a remade secondary that can play man coverage like defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn wants, and all of Carlton Davis, Amik Robertson, first-round pick Terrion Arnold, and second-round pick Ennis Rakestraw Jr. are extremely competitive to not back down from an opponent. For Detroit’s offense, Ben Johnson will have had eight months to prepare for the Rams (now without Aaron Donald), and that should include shots designed for Jameson Williams on Sunday night to spark a Year 3 breakout. I like Detroit to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, so I also like them to open the year with another primetime victory.
Winner: Detroit Lions
NYJ @ SF
Monday, September 9 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN2
Jets-49ers has the makings of a Monday Night Football thriller to close out Week 1, but all the drama has been settled in San Francisco, while New York is still waiting for Haason Reddick to report to the team as he seeks a new contract. At this point, it seems highly unlikely that Reddick will suit up for the opener, so that makes life a lot easier on Brock Purdy and the Niners; remember, it was a hit by Reddick that took Purdy out of the NFC Championship Game with an elbow injury two years ago, and the pass rush won’t bring the same kind of juice without the big-ticket defensive acquisition. Still, I doubt the Niners will light up the scoreboard versus a stout defense that will be given a morale boost with Rodgers in the lineup, and the four-time NFL MVP’s play versus his hometown team in the regular season (6-3 record with a 20:2 touchdown-interception ratio) has been overshadowed by struggles in the playoffs (0-4 with a 5:3 touchdown-interception ratio). All that said, San Francisco should be better on defense than they were a year ago, and Purdy gets his entire supporting cast back to build on what he’s done across his first two seasons.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers