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Home / frontnfl / 2024 NFL Game Picks: Week 10
Drew Hallowell/Philadelphia Eagles

2024 NFL Game Picks: Week 10


Last week: 12-3

Season: 89-49

 

CIN (4-5) @ BAL (6-3)

Thursday, November 7 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video

 

Led by a stone-faced Joe Burrow, the Bengals enter a short week with extreme focus for a crucial AFC North battle, and the offense can obviously put up points in this matchup after losing a 41-38 shootout to Baltimore in overtime last month—with Burrow throwing for 392 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. The likely absence of Tee Higgins (quad) takes a key piece off the board, but Burrow threw for another five scores without him last week, and the Ravens continue to be vulnerable in coverage for Ja’Marr Chase (10/193/2 in the first meeting) to go off. However, it’s imperative for Cincinnati to start fast and keep things close, as Baltimore can destroy opponents that don’t capitalize on early opportunities (which we saw last week against the Broncos), and I’m sure Burrow being openly locked in will be something Roquan Smith makes sure everyone knows about to match the Bengals’ intensity. Also, a short week might make it more difficult on the defense trying to bring down Derrick Henry, and Baltimore could have Keaton Mitchell (knee) make his season debut as yet another weapon for a loaded offense at all three skill positions.

 

Winner: Baltimore Ravens

 

NYG (2-7) @ CAR (2-7)

Sunday, November 10 | 9:30 AM ET (Germany) | NFL Network

 

The Giants haven’t had much of a vertical passing game this season after it was an apparent priority for them in 2024, but anyone blaming Daniel Jones for last week—when he completed 76.9% of his passes, rushed for 54 yards, and totaled three touchdowns—is frankly dumb and/or disingenuous. As stated last week, I would like to see Malik Nabers more involved early in games, and the superstar rookie has started to voice his displeasure by saying he isn’t the play-caller when asked about the drop in production since his return from a concussion; Nabers will see a lot of Jaycee Horn in Germany, but New York should move him around and get the ball in his hands on designed touches. On defense, the Giants’ league-best pass rush not getting to Bryce Young and allowing the former No. 1 overall pick to dice up a vulnerable secondary could be a signal about how the rest of the year might go despite a vote of confidence for Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll last month—but Carolina is an ideal opponent to get on track against.

 

Winner: New York Giants

 

NE (2-7) @ CHI (4-4)

Sunday, November 10 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

Nothing seems to be working for the Chicago offense right now, and my worry at this point is Caleb Williams falling into bad habits that will be difficult to break if/when things improve in terms of the offensive line and coaching staff. The struggles have only been compounded by low morale—which overshadows a defense that has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league (five) and hadn’t allowed more than 21 points in a game before last week’s blowout loss in Arizona. This week, the Bears defensive line led by a returning Montez Sweat (shin) needs to get to a playmaking Drake Maye, but it’s unfortunate for both rookie quarterbacks (and football fans) that the overall supporting casts aren’t there for what should be a headlining showdown between the No. 1 and No. 3 overall picks. Instead, I’m assuming the matchup will come down to the team that can avoid a big mistake, and Chicago at least gets to play at home (rather the road where they are 0-18 under Matt Eberflus on Sundays) and has more talent to avoid a third consecutive loss.

 

Winner: Chicago Bears

 

BUF (7-2) @ IND (4-5)

Sunday, November 10 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

The Bills having Josh Allen obviously makes them a Super Bowl contender every year, but showings like last week—when the defense couldn’t stop De’Von Achane and Buffalo needed a 61-yard field goal by Tyler Bass to win—are discouraging; basically, it seems Allen will need to again be perfect in January for them to make a deep playoff run, and the defense needs to improve versus top competition if they are going to knock off the Chiefs or Ravens in January. Indianapolis isn’t a powerhouse, but they did dominate the Bills in their most recent matchup (2021) with Jonathan Taylor totaling 204 yards and five touchdowns, so Sean McDermott’s defense needs to be ready to slow him down after having no answers for Achane in Week 9. From the Colts’ perspective, Joe Flacco not taking the easy checkdowns to Taylor last week cost them in the primetime loss to Minnesota, but that should be corrected after watching the film, and I’m wondering if we’ll see Anthony Richardson used in a “change-of-pace” role before long. Either way, Allen and the Buffalo offense should be able to move the ball enough to avoid an upset, and Dalton Kincaid is the pass-catcher I’d expect to have a huge day.

 

Winner: Buffalo Bills

 

MIN (6-2) @ JAX (2-7)

Sunday, November 10 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) is unlikely to play this week and seems to be uncertain for the rest of the season if he ends up opting for surgery—but Mac Jones is more than capable of keeping Jacksonville competitive. While the confidence was clearly drained from Jones by the end of his time with the Patriots, he enters a situation with low expectations after a reset period as the No. 2 quarterback, and anyone doubting his potential should watch his rookie tape. Minnesota won’t be an easy opponent to face for Jones because of all the pressure they bring under Brian Flores, but they do leave some holes in coverage, so Sunday will be a good indication of where Jones is at for what is essentially a showcase game ahead of free agency. Another storyline this week is new Vikings left tackle Cam Robinson facing his former team just a couple of weeks after being traded, and Josh Hines-Allen being able to wreck the game based on that matchup is the best shot for the Jags.

 

Winner: Minnesota Vikings

 

DEN (5-4) @ KC (8-0)

Sunday, November 10 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

I thought Denver would make it a battle last week in Baltimore, but their lack of talent was exposed versus one of the most stacked rosters in football—and the long touchdown by Zay Flowers at the end of the first half combined with a couple of mistakes blew the game open. Still, the Chiefs aren’t built to blow teams out (at least after season-ending injuries to Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown), and the Broncos enter Sunday with a belief in themselves after splitting with Kansas City last year while holding Andy Reid’s offense to 15.0 points per game. The offensive line for Denver will be tested again after some issues last week against the Ravens, but Bo Nix has proven to be a “gamer” that will throw, run, or even catch to move the ball and put up points—not dissimilar to how Patrick Mahomes has played for a find-a-way Kansas City team with championship DNA. The difference could again be the roster for the Broncos not being ready for primetime, but I’d expect a determined bunch on both sides of the ball, and knocking off the Chiefs as the NFL’s final unbeaten team (with a three-peat on their minds and a matchup against the Bills next week) could be looked back on as a legacy-type game if Nix ends up turning into a superstar.

 

Winner: Denver Broncos

 

ATL (6-3) @ NO (2-7)

Sunday, November 10 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

The Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen on Monday after a seven-game losing streak, and it was a long (but quick) fall for the team after starting 2-0 and looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender through two weeks. In my opinion, Allen was a scapegoat for a franchise that has missed on premium draft picks and paid too many non-impact players in recent years, and the roster-altering 2017 draft class now only has Alvin Kamara left with Marshon Lattimore traded to Washington and Ryan Ramczyk (knee) having a very uncertain future. Even with their cap situation, hitting on draft picks—like they did in 2017—would accelerate the path to contention, so we’ll see what happens next year and beyond. On Sunday, the offense will be without Chris Olave (concussion), so New Orleans needs to play heavily through Alvin Kamara (35 touches for 215 yards last week) and Taysom Hill (nine touches for 60 yards and a touchdown); but I don’t see the Saints stopping Kirk Cousins this week with Lattimore gone, Paulson Adebo (leg) done for the season, and rookie Kool-Aid McKinstry (hamstring) likely out again.

 

Winner: Atlanta Falcons

 

SF (4-4) @ TB (4-5)

Sunday, November 10 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX

 

Kyle Shanahan has downplayed the certainty of a Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles) debut this weekend by saying he needs to get through a week of practice first, but the full expectation is that San Francisco will get their superstar weapon back—and Shanahan has a history of staying away from guarantees. Although we might not see McCaffrey immediately get fed 25+ touches, the efficiency in scoring territory should improve dramatically with the 49ers going from the top red zone offense in 2023 to the bottom five this season without McCaffrey in the lineup; and maybe the bye week will get first-rounder Ricky Pearsall more involved for the stretch run to really boost the supporting cast for Brock Purdy. Defensively, the Niners’ rookie duo of Renardo Green and Malik Mustapha has been excellent since they’ve been installed as full-time players, and it will be fun to see them flying around versus an aggressive, competitive Tampa Bay offense that isn’t afraid to throw the ball no matter who Baker Mayfield has around him.

 

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

 

PIT (6-2) @ WAS (7-2)

Sunday, November 10 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS

 

Steelers-Commanders is arguably the top game of Week 10, and both sides have legitimate championship aspirations—making major moves on Tuesday with Washington adding a star to the secondary with Marshon Lattimore, while Pittsburgh got Mike Williams in what could be looked back on as the best value at the deadline if the former Chargers star can round back into full form. I personally have questions about the Commanders being a true contender with just one game versus a team that currently has a winning record (a loss to Baltimore), so the five-day stretch with the Steelers coming to town on Sunday followed by a trip to Philadelphia next Thursday night—with first place in the NFC East likely on the line—will be telling. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is a team I always believe in under Mike Tomlin, and Russell Wilson having both George Pickens and Williams to target on the outside with Najee Harris playing some of the best football of his career gives them an offense that better complements the elite defense. Based on the experience the Steelers have in defending Lamar Jackson over the years, I like their chances of preventing Jayden Daniels from going crazy, especially if Joey Porter Jr. can neutralize Terry McLaurin.

 

Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

 

TEN (2-6) @ LAC (5-3)

Sunday, November 10 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX

 

The Titans are “hopeful” that Will Levis (shoulder) will return this week, but there are definite concerns about the offense not operating at the level it has under Mason Rudolph—including the connection with Calvin Ridley (15 receptions for 217 yards over the past two games) falling off. Levis might bring more theoretical upside than Rudolph, but the former Oklahoma State standout knows how to manage games with a career 9-6-1 record, and getting the ball to Ridley is something that is important both in terms of on-field success and keeping everyone happy. The worst-case scenario is Levis returning against the NFL’s top scoring defense (12.6 points per game allowed) and not being able to move the ball to have the previous frustrations resurface for Ridley not even ten games into a four-year contract, so Tennessee needs to find ways to get the ball to him early no matter who is under center. Justin Herbert has been catching fire for the Chargers, though, so it might take a heads-up play on defense like we saw from Roger McCreary a couple of years ago for the Titans to pull off an upset.

 

Winner: Los Angeles Chargers

 

NYJ (3-6) @ ARI (5-4)

Sunday, November 10 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS

 

The Jets’ win last Thursday night over Houston could be a turning point for their season (and needs to be for them to have any shot of making the playoffs), and the situation is eerily similar to the Cardinals—but just a few weeks later—when they looked set to start 1-4 until a comeback win against the 49ers. New York still has a lot of work to do, but the next five games are very winnable (@ ARI, v IND, v SEA, @ MIA, @ JAX) in a wide-open AFC wild card race, and Arizona is the only opponent left on the schedule that currently has a winning record until facing the Bills in Week 17. Focusing on this week, I like how the Jets match up offensively with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson facing a defense that can be disruptive more based on their team play rather than the cornerbacks being able to slow them down with pure cover skills, so Kyler Murray might need to make plays with his legs to keep up if Aaron Rodgers comes out hot; there were definitely throws to be had for C.J. Stroud and the Texans on Halloween, and the Jets won’t be the defense they want to be if Sauce Gardner doesn’t play at the level he did across his first two seasons.

 

Winner: New York Jets

 

PHI (6-2) @ DAL (3-5)

Sunday, November 10 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS

 

The Eagles and Cowboys are moving in opposite directions with Philadelphia on a four-game winning streak and Dallas losing three in a row—but the classic NFC East rivalry can always be a bit unpredictable whether it’s a close game or blowout, and the return of Micah Parsons (ankle) would at least even the playing field with Dak Prescott (hamstring) out. Plus, there is some confidence for the Cowboys with Cooper Rush under center (5-1 career record), and a simplified game plan led to them winning four-of-five games when Dak went down in 2022. However, the defense might not get DaRon Bland (foot) back this weekend, so it’s difficult to see how they will be able to stop both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith if Jalen Hurts (who isn’t always at his best versus the Cowboys) plays like he has over the past couple of weeks. The formula for a Dallas win would probably be Parsons consistently beating left tackle Fred Johnson and Philly’s rookie cornerbacks not being able to contain CeeDee Lamb, but offensive talent for the Eagles could prove to be too much if they play through Saquon Barkley and stay ahead of the sticks.

 

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

 

DET (7-1) @ HOU (6-3)

Sunday, November 10 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC

 

Jared Goff finally getting respect from the media has been great, as Peyton Manning was pretty much the only mainstream figure to give him credit before the undeniable high-level play dating back to last year—and Bill Belichick and Terry Bradshaw both have recently said Goff is reminding them of Tom Brady, so the haters don’t have a leg to stand on anymore. Brady himself just compared Goff and the Detroit offense to the Manning-leg Colts in the 2000s, and the point is that it’s extremely difficult to stop them (or even slow them down) because of all their weapons. The Texans getting Nico Collins (hamstring) back on Sunday night would boost their chances in a possible shootout, but the star wideout didn’t practice Thursday, which would put a lot on Joe Mixon and Tank Dell if he doesn’t make his return as the top weapon for C.J. Stroud. Perhaps a few extra days for Houston to prepare will have them better equipped to contain Ben Johnson’s offense, but the Lions have been on another level and should have an easier time this week with Jameson Williams back and weather not being a factor.

 

Winner: Detroit Lions

 

MIA (2-6) @ LAR (4-4)

Monday, November 11 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN

 

The Dolphins enter Monday Night Football with a 2-6 record and their only wins coming in the final seconds (against Jacksonville) and minutes (against New England), but the record doesn’t reflect the potential—particularly with Tua Tagovailoa under center. A young, energetic defense for Los Angeles could present problems for Miami this week, but Mike McDaniel will do his best to keep them off balance using misdirection and by spreading the field both vertically and horizontally with things built around De’Von Achane (who has receiving lines of 7/76, 7/69/1, 6/50/1, and 8/58/1 in Tagovailoa’s four starts this year). The question will be if the Dolphins are able to stop Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and all the complementary options (Demarcus Robinson caught the game-winning touchdown last week in overtime, but don’t forget about Tyler Johnson undercutting a would-be Riq Woolen interception for a 24-yard gain earlier in the drive). Miami won’t have a shot if Matthew Stafford can comfortably stand in the pocket and deliver strikes all over the place, but the Dolphins have been a top-five pass defense despite just 10 sacks on the season, and I’ll go with them as the more desperate team.

 

Winner: Miami Dolphins