Season: 18-14
NE (1-1) @ NYJ (1-1)
Thursday, September 19 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
The Patriots exceeding expectations with a win over the Bengals and overtime loss to Seattle so far this season boosts the appeal of this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup—and I would anticipate a close game with the Jets not yet hitting their stride on offense. It will be very interesting to see how New England decides to defend Aaron Rodgers, as Christian Gonzalez might be able to take away Garrett Wilson in shadow coverage, but they can also pull out a page from Bill Belichick’s book by doubling Wilson and putting Gonzalez on a still-rounding-into-form Mike Williams. Either way, the Jets would be wise to continue playing through Breece Hall and impressive rookie Braelon Allen (who had no business going on Day 2), and maybe third-rounder Malachi Corley will be more involved after just one offensive snap in each of the first two weeks. The Pats will also lean on their running backs with Rhamondre Stevenson (90 total yards and a touchdown) and Antonio Gibson (103 total yards) being the centerpieces with Jacoby Brissett under center, but New York has more overall talent and should have the edge at home if they come ready to play for their third game in 11 days.
Winner: New York Jets
NYG (0-2) @ CLE (1-1)
Sunday, September 22 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Falling to the Commanders last week was crushing for the Giants, and it was the sort of game they needed to win if they are going to not only compete for a playoff spot, but also avoid again being towards the bottom of the standings; after this week, the Giants face the Cowboys, Seahawks, Bengals, Eagles, and Steelers through the end of October, so the pressure is really on this weekend for a trip to Cleveland. In general, I’m just not sure what the identity of the team is supposed to be on either side of the ball, as the defense hasn’t tackled well at all, and the hope for increased downfield aggression on offense hasn’t come to fruition. The positive for Week 3 is that Cleveland isn’t exactly operating at a high level, but they did get a win last week, and Jim Schwartz’s defense has the cornerbacks to at least slow down Malik Nabers after the electric rookie saw a whopping 18 targets in the loss to Washington. If the edge duo of Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux don’t come alive to support Dexter Lawrence II versus a banged-up offensive line, the Giants will be facing an 0-3 start with little hope of climbing out of it.
Winner: Cleveland Browns
CHI (1-1) @ IND (0-2)
Sunday, September 22 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Bears-Colts should be one of the closest games of the week, and whichever offense is able to get going will likely come away with a needed victory on Sunday. Chicago was said to be perhaps the best landing spot ever for a No. 1 overall pick, but it sure hasn’t looked like it through two weeks—particularly in the loss to Houston where Caleb Williams was pressured on seemingly every snap and got sacked seven times; if the offensive line can’t hold up, it prevents DJ Moore from getting downfield, and the Bears also aren’t running the ball well enough to create needed balance. Indianapolis surprisingly abandoned the run in Week 2 with Jonathan Taylor not even seeing the field in the fourth quarter, but Chicago is better attacked on the ground than through the air, and I’d like to see more designed runs for Anthony Richardson as he finds his footing as a passer. The typical tiebreaker of homefield advantage for close games goes to the Colts, but this could be a spot where the lack of resources spent by general manager Chris Ballard in the secondary this offseason comes back to hurt them, especially with DeForest Bucker (ankle) out and first-round pick Laiatu Latu (hip) at less than 100%.
Winner: Chicago Bears
HOU (2-0) @ MIN (2-0)
Sunday, September 22 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Vikings are the perfect example of how important coaching, supporting cast, and situation is, as Sam Darnold has enjoyed a career resurgence as the triggerman of Kevin O’Connell’s offense—but let’s not overlook the job Brian Flores has done with the defense, too. I had questions about the decision to move on from Danielle Hunter (who they will face this weekend), but Flores just has one of those defenses where it doesn’t really matter what he’s working with as long as the group is willing to play with aggression. This week, Tank Dell is the pass-catcher to be wary of for Minnesota because of his ability to strike with a big play at any time, and he might be able to roast someone in single coverage—whether it’s a deep ball or getting the ball in his hands and breaking a tackle. In general, C.J. Stroud has mostly solved every pressure package brought to begin his young career, and that’s reason to go with the Texans on the road.
Winner: Houston Texans
PHI (1-1) @ NO (2-0)
Sunday, September 22 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Philadelphia losing like they did on Monday night has fans seeing flashbacks of the 2023 collapse, and the NFC South tour will only get more difficult with trips to New Orleans and Tampa Bay ahead of a Week 5 bye. Because of the early bye, I’d expect A.J. Brown (hamstring) might not be available the rest of the month, so it’s crucial for the Eagles to make sure they play more through Saquon Barkley—which will force the safeties up and allow Jalen Hurts to hit on the downfield shots we haven’t yet seen under Kellen Moore. Jahan Dotson is the wild card after just one target last week, and he’s a playmaker that can hit on a double move to give more of a vertical element other than DeVonta Smith. For the Saints, we know they have no problems throwing deep with Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave, and both big-play threats can go off this week if the Eagles cover like they did at the end of the loss to Atlanta. The success for Hurts versus New Orleans with a 2-0 record powered by 175 rushing yards and three touchdowns in two matchups is notable, but unless the Philadelphia pass rush wakes up and the run defense improves when Jordan Davis isn’t on the field, it’s tough to see them stopping Carr and Alvin Kamara.
Winner: New Orleans Saints
LAC (2-0) @ PIT (2-0)
Sunday, September 22 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Chargers-Steelers has the makings of a complete slugfest, and it’s the style of game both Jim Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin are perfectly fine with—so Sunday will come down to whoever takes care of the ball and maybe someone making a game-changing play. Both Justin Herbert (382 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in a 41-37 win) and J.K. Dobbins (47 carries for 326 yards and a touchdown in three games) have thrived against Pittsburgh, but this is a better defense than previous years with Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt, Patrick Queen, Joey Porter Jr., and Minkah Fitzpatrick being among the star-level players on the unit, so I don’t think anyone will be expecting offensive fireworks. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers haven’t yet fully unleashed Justin Fields as a runner, but he’s done a nice job taking care of the ball, and this feels like a game where Fields might be more aggressive when he gets into the open field, which could be the difference.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
DEN (0-2) @ TB (2-0)
Sunday, September 22 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Ravens, Bengals, Rams, and Jaguars are hopeful contenders that have started 0-2, but Denver is arguably the most disappointing team thus far based on how they’ve looked—particularly on offense with the running game struggling, pass protection not holding up, and the pass-catchers not separating. Bo Nix has struggled as well, but it’s hard enough to play quarterback when things are going well around you, so the situation he finds himself has led to pressing with uncharacteristic passes (like an interception into the end zone in each game to begin his career). Part of me believes Denver will pull off an upset this week with Nix perhaps having an aggressive Todd Bowles defense work in his favor by allowing him to play more instinctively, but the supporting cast isn’t there right now, while Baker Mayfield has a top-tier supporting cast that could play through Chris Godwin and others if Mike Evans faces shadow coverage from Pat Surtain II.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
GB (1-1) @ TEN (0-2)
Sunday, September 22 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Jordan Love (knee) is pushing to play this week to beat his projected recovery timeline of three-to-four games, but Malik Willis showed he is very capable of captaining the ship in his stead—completing 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown while also adding six carries for 41 yards in the Week 2 win. If it does end up being Willis under center again, he’ll have some extra motivation facing the franchise that drafted him and never seemed to cultivate an environment for his to succeed in, and the Titans are still looking for the answer under center with Will Levis struggling (I believe we could see Mason Rudolph sooner rather than later). The concern for Green Bay continues to be their ability to stop the run, so Tony Pollard should be given a heavy workload this weekend, and Treylon Burks (three touches for three yards last week) might have more success if he gets opportunities in space on Sunday. Whether it’s Love or Willis at quarterback, I think the Packers will have the advantage and are simply the better team despite all the veteran additions for Tennessee.
Winner: Green Bay Packers
CAR (0-2) @ LV (1-1)
Sunday, September 22 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
The first line from last week’s game pick for Carolina says it all: “The situation that Bryce Young has been in to begin his career is Exhibit A as to why I wouldn’t blame a player—especially at quarterback—for making it known they don’t want to be drafted by a particular franchise.” Just a week later, Young has been benched, and organizational incompetence killed his confidence, as what last year’s No. 1 overall pick showed at Alabama (along with flashes as a rookie) isn’t what he showed in two games. Some clueless “experts” now say there is nothing that stands out about Young’s game, but his instincts were top-notch in college with a rare feel for where everyone was, and he also possessed tremendous poise, accuracy, and playmaking ability. As both Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have shown with a combined 46:14 touchdown-interception ratio since leaving the Panthers, circumstances matter… and it’s something Mayfield himself discussed this week by saying Young’s “story is far, far from finished.”
Winner: Las Vegas Raiders
MIA (1-1) @ SEA (2-0)
Sunday, September 22 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
I won’t speculate on the future of Tua Tagovailoa after he suffered another scary concussion last Thursday night, but his absence is certainly felt for Miami and shows the importance of the quarterback position. That said, it’s a surprise that the Dolphins are just 4.5-point underdogs heading into Seattle, which might be due to the Seahawks being extremely stingy versus the pass while showing vulnerability against the run—meaning a lot of De’Von Achane as Miami hopes to stay afloat without Tagovailoa. I like the move to add Tyler Huntley, but Skylar Thompson will start this week, and this is another spot where Jake Fromm (who picked up the Detroit playbook very quickly after joining them in the summer) would shine with an ability to play through Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jayden Waddle underneath in addition to impressive downfield accuracy. Another potential absence for Kenneth Walker III (oblique) leaves Seattle without a key player of their own, but Zach Charbonnet is an excellent No. 2 back, and as DK Metcalf said following a breakout game from Jaxon Smith-Njigba (12/117), the offense is “a ticking timebomb” with all the talent they have.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
DET (1-1) @ ARI (1-1)
Sunday, September 22 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
If the flashes shown from Kyler Murray in the opener didn’t have people believing he was completely back from his torn ACL, last week should have done it—as he was awesome by completing 17-of-21 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns with another five carries for 59 yards on the ground. Although only two games, Murray is more productive than ever as a runner with 11.6 yards per attempt and 58.0 yards per game to begin 2024, and Aaron Glenn’s defense often struggling to contain mobile quarterbacks could be a problem for them if Aidan Hutchinson (4.5 sacks last week) doesn’t get to him like Greg Rousseau did in Week 1 with 3.0 sacks. Offensively, the Lions haven’t been able to get everyone going and have struggled in the red zone, but Ben Johnson is too smart not to get things figured out; I think we will see more balance with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery after Jared Goff threw it 55 times last week, and that should open things up for Sam LaPorta to get on the carousel with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams as featured targets.
Winner: Detroit Lions
BAL (0-2) @ DAL (1-1)
Sunday, September 22 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The Ravens have Super Bowl aspirations after taking Kansas City to the brink last postseason and adding Derrick Henry to improve their outlook in January, but they sit at 0-2 with matchups against Dallas and Buffalo to finish September—so this weekend is as important as it gets for a Week 3 game. Fortunately for them, the Cowboys have been extremely susceptible to the run through two weeks (as shown by Alvin Kamara last Sunday), and the interior of the defensive line is dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness at an inopportune time with Henry coming to town. A determined Lamar Jackson can’t press too much facing the prospects of an 0-3 start, but perhaps he will run more (which I’d recommend) knowing how important a win is. The defense for Baltimore should also be focused following the blown lead versus Las Vegas in Week 2, and Marlon Humphrey needs to at least slow down CeeDee Lamb after Davante Adams went off in the second half for the Raiders. Dallas was my original pick at home, but I’m going with the Ravens as the more desperate team in a stacked conference.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
SF (1-1) @ LAR (0-2)
Sunday, September 22 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The 49ers and Rams have had some intense battles over the years, but Kyle Shanahan has typically had the upper hand over Sean McVay (10-5 record in the regular season)—and now Los Angeles enters the weekend with an unbelievable string of injuries. Most notably, the offense will be missing Cooper Kupp (ankle), Puka Nacua (knee), and multiple starters on the offensive line, so it’ll be interesting to see how McVay adjusts; I’d keep an eye on Tyler Johnson as a player that has been efficient so far this year (seven receptions for 99 yards) and isn’t uncomfortable in big spots having stepped up in the playoffs when called upon for Tom Brady and the Bucs. San Francisco has injuries of their own with Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (calf) out, so a more traditional offensive approach will be used with Jordan Mason leading the ground game and Brock Purdy mostly playing through Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Looking ahead, I’m intrigued by what the Rams might do if a quarterback-needy team calls about Matthew Stafford, and the 2025 quarterback class is much stronger than most currently believe.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers
KC (2-0) @ ATL (1-1)
Sunday, September 22 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
The Falcons somehow escaped Philadelphia with a win on Monday night, and the final drive—with Kirk Cousins going five-of-six for 70 yards and the game-winning touchdown to Drake London—is something that should build momentum into Week 3 and beyond. I still think Atlanta needs to play more through Kyle Pitts with increased opportunities outside the numbers like we saw at Florida, but Darnell Mooney forcing opponents to respect the deep ball will open things up for Pitts and everyone else, including Bijan Robinson as he seeks his first touchdown of 2024. Off the field, Falcons owner Arthur Blank giving away two free hot dogs, two free bags of chips, and free soda to all fans in attendance ahead of induction into the team’s Ring of Honor should be commended, and it’s not entirely surprising with Blank establishing the “fan-first menu” with very affordable prices on concessions at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Unfortunately, the night could be spoiled by Patrick Mahomes if the Chiefs click on offense, and Travis Kelce has been far too quiet to begin the season.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
JAX (0-2) @ BUF (2-0)
Monday, September 23 | 7:30 PM ET | ESPN
Jacksonville appeared on their way to being a top AFC team after an 8-3 start in 2023, but they’ve since gone 1-7 (with the only win coming against the Panthers), so you have to believe the pressure is on for Doug Pederson. To be fair, the roster that Trent Baalke built is frankly overrated—particularly on defense where Josh Hines-Allen needs more help at all three levels. Being without top cornerback Tyson Campbell (hamstring) again won’t help matters, and I’d expect Buffalo to attack successfully with an extremely balance offense where Josh Allen is just worried about hitting the open target (this week, I think that’ll mainly be Dalton Kincaid). For the Jaguars to get on track with a win, the offensive game plan they had last year in London would be wise as Travis Etienne Jr. was fed 30 touches for 184 total yards and two touchdowns, but Buffalo is stingier than they were in 2023—including now having both Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford at cornerback, which wasn’t the case in the October loss to Jacksonville—with an improved pass rush due to Von Miller looking more like himself.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
WAS (1-1) @ CIN (0-2)
Monday, September 23 | 8:15 PM ET | ABC
The Bengals being a very questionable pass interference call away from beating Kansas City last week shows they remain a major threat in the AFC despite an 0-2 start, and it sounds like Tee Higgins (hamstring) could return ahead of a matchup versus a very soft Washington secondary that I don’t see having any answers for him or Ja’Marr Chase. Even if Higgins ends up sitting another game, the Bengals have seen Andrei Iosivas and Mike Gesicki step up, and I get the feeling Chase will explode after the Chiefs bottled him up in Week 2. If so, the Commanders will probably be playing from behind on the road, and Cincinnati will tackle a lot better than the Giants did in Week 2 with Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson Jr. consistently breaking tackles in a 21-18 win. Keep an eye on rookie left tackle Brandon Coleman taking on Trey Hendrickson after the Bengals pass rusher caused the Chiefs to replace their own rookie blindside protector in Kingsley Suamataia late last Sunday, and Terry McLaurin could be quiet again with Cam Taylor-Britt—the star cornerback no one talks about—backing up his words last week despite a losing effort.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals