Mock drafts will change in a big way following free agency, but with the NFL Scouting Combine in the books, now is a good time for an updated run through Round 1. In this scenario, Kirk Cousins signs with the Falcons, Justin Fields is traded to the Raiders, and Russell Wilson finds his way to Pittsburgh as the dominoes that need to fall at quarterback.
1. CHI (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Some will still question it until Justin Fields is traded, but Chicago is fully expected to take Williams as their new franchise quarterback. The real debate should be whether it makes sense to take a Godfather offer to move down and select another quarterback, but Williams’ ceiling is probably too enticing for the Bears to pass up.
2. WAS: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Washington is a very interesting team heading into the first draft under new ownership, as Josh Harris might want to accumulate assets based on how the rosters for his other franchises have been built. However, general manager Adam Peters is calling the shots, and I could see him targeting Maye.
3. NE: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Buzz out of New England is that they will be drafting a quarterback here, and the Raiders going with another signal-caller (in this case Fields) could be an indication that they’re unable to trade up because quarterbacks are set to go 1-2-3. Some will say he should sit, but the athletic upside of Daniels might be too much to keep on the bench in Year 1.
4. ARI: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort being pumped up about Alabama pass rusher Dallas Turner running a fast 40-yard dash time over the weekend had me thinking they might want to trade down, but Harrison is still the heavy favorite for them. It wouldn’t be entirely shocking if Arizona simply took Turner at No. 4, though.
5. MIN (mock trade w/ LAC): J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
If the Vikings don’t re-sign Kirk Cousins or come away with a big-name replacement, they’ll undoubtedly be targeting a quarterback next month—and McCarthy is suddenly being discussed as a potential top-five pick. In general, Minnesota needs to have a strong draft to avoid another step back in the NFC North.
6. NYG: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Nabers spoke highly about his meeting with the Giants last week, and the best way to improve the quarterback play in New York might be to add a weapon of his caliber. The presence of the explosive playmaker would help open things up for Wan’Dale Robinson and others.
7. TEN: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Wide receiver or left tackle are two of the biggest needs for Tennessee, but there are holes all over the roster—making a trade down something they need to strongly consider if they have options. If they stay put, Odunze has extremely high character to help get the team headed back in the right direction.
8. ATL: Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama
The Falcons signing Kirk Cousins would allow them to turn their attention to defense with another top-ten pick—as Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts are already in place on offense. Turner has big upside as a pass rusher and can play the run at a high level.
9. CHI: Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA
A history of neck issues could cause Latu to go quite a bit lower than this, but I could imagine general manager Ryan Poles loving his football character. And on the field, Latu being a relentless technician would pair well across from the monster athleticism of Montez Sweat.
10. NYJ: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
New York having their choice of offensive lineman would be tremendous news for Aaron Rodgers, and Fashanu—in my opinion—is the best pass protector in the class. First, we’ll have to see what the Jets do in free agency with Tyron Smith becoming available as an option for the blindside.
11. LAC (mock trade w/ MIN): Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Alt could also be an option for the Jets and might fit better at right tackle than Fashanu would—and that’s where he would play for the Chargers. Based on his familiarity with the college game, new head coach Jim Harbaugh could end up having a home-run draft with a bunch of picks to work with.
12. DEN: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Nix was here in the first mock, and I think he is the perfect fit for Sean Payton’s offense. The former Auburn and Oregon quarterback not having a high ceiling seems to be a common opinion, but that’s completely off base when you watch the creativity he showed for the Tigers.
13. LV: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
I’m not sure if the Raiders trading for Fields is something that would even be a consideration with former Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy in Las Vegas, but again, we’ll fortunately get some answers over the next few weeks. In Arnold, the Silver and Black would have a versatile defender to combat the attacks in the AFC West.
14. NO: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The status of former All-Pro Ryan Ramczyk is a major storyline for New Orleans this offseason as he contemplates retirement due to knee injuries, and a replacement could come in Round 1. Latham is a big, powerful right tackle that could step right in for a team with championship aspirations.
15. IND: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Finding a landing spot for Bowers is tough, as the pure talent should have him off the board before this, and I would say Cincinnati is the absolute floor. For the Colts, he would give them an all-around weapon to make things easier on Anthony Richardson.
16. SEA: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Medicals all reportedly checking out for Penix is a massive boost to his chances of going in the first round, and I believe he’s well worth selecting in this range. The connection to Seattle is easy to make with former Washington Huskies offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb being hired for the same job under Mike Macdonald.
17. JAX: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Calvin Ridley heading elsewhere could make wide receiver a priority for the Jaguars, and cornerback isn’t necessarily a need for them. But trying to get into general manager Trent Baalke’s head, Mitchell is a freak athlete that he might not want to pass on.
18. CIN: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Lack of experience and injury concerns aside, Mims is a titanic offensive tackle that would give Cincinnati another tower to bookend Orlando Brown Jr. and keep Joe Burrow clean. Mims being a top-ten prospect for us despite just eight career stars speaks to his talent.
19. LAR: Jared Verse, OLB, Florida State
Verse is one of a few prospects that could go higher than this, but six quarterbacks in the first half of Round 1 would be great news for the Rams and others hoping for guys to fall. Verse seems like an ideal fit on the defense to add another young option with juice around Aaron Donald.
20. PIT: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
Pittsburgh releasing starting center Mason Cole last month made this an obvious pairing, but offensive tackle and cornerback are among the other options to consider. If the pick is Powers-Johnson, the Steelers would have two building blocks up front in him and Broderick Jones—not to mention veteran Isaac Seumalo.
21. BAL (mock trade w/ MIA): Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Fuaga slipping might cause Baltimore to explore moving up in this scenario, especially with Ronnie Stanley dealing with injury issues and Morgan Moses entering the final year of his deal. A wideout such as Keon Coleman or Brian Thomas Jr. could also be the move.
22. PHI: Chop Robinson, OLB, Penn State
The Eagles are a difficult team to mock for, as cornerback is the position many mock to them—but general manager Howie Roseman has said that James Bradberry will remain with the team, which creates a questionable 2024 fit for a rookie that doesn’t play inside. Instead, Robinson can provide young energy off the edge along with second-year defender Nolan Smith.
23. HOU (via CLE): Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Murphy has generated plenty of first-round buzz—with some suggesting he could be in play as high as No. 11 overall. If the Texans want to bolster the trenches to help them win in January, Murphy could be the target for them if he’s on the board.
24. DAL: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
Left tackle will be the primary hole on the Dallas offensive line if Tyron Smith does indeed depart in free agency, so I’m sticking with my original selection from the first mock with Kingsley Suamataia here. Plus, we have clarity on the Cowboys deciding to keep Tyler Smith at left guard rather than kicking him back outside.
25. GB: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
DeJean to the Packers is a very popular connection, and he could play either outside or in the slot considering all the injury issues Green Bay typically runs into on defense. This could be even more likely if Keisean Nixon gets a nice payday elsewhere for his contributions both defensively and on special teams.
26. TB: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
After the rumor mill swirled over the past few days, it seems more likely that Mike Evans could find a new home in free agency—so Tampa Bay staying in the state with the six-foot-four Coleman makes a ton of sense. I would not at all be concerned about the 40 time considering his game speed.
27. ARI (via HOU): Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
McKinstry is an excellent scheme fit for Arizona, and he’s one of a few cornerbacks jockeying to go late in Round 1. Despite a Jones fracture in his foot that was discovered at the Combine, McKinstry is expected to work out at Alabama’s Pro Day later this month before getting it repaired.
28. BUF: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Thomas sliding right into the Gabe Davis role would be exciting for Josh Allen and the Bills, but will they make a splash in free agency or the trade market before the draft? As the roster currently stands, I’d expect Thomas to be a top target in terms of fit.
29. DET: Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
As stated in Mock 1.0, the Lions might view Rakestraw as sort of a discount Devon Witherspoon as a cornerback with high confidence that won’t hesitate to hit. If not addressed at some point this month, I would be surprised if the Lions went with a position other than cornerback.
30. MIA (mock trade w/ BAL): Graham Barton, C, Duke
Barton has the versatility to play any position on the offensive line, and Miami might view him as a seamless replacement for Connor Williams—who is coming off a torn ACL as he enters free agency. I’d be interested in learning how involved Mike McDaniel is in the selection after a clear hit on 2023 favorite De’Von Achane.
31. SF: Troy Fautanu, G, Washington
Fautanu would be a huge upgrade for San Francisco at either right guard or right tackle, and improving the offensive line is expected to be a priority this offseason. I would have confidence in general manager John Lynch hitting on a cornerback at some point on Day 2.
32. KC: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
This would be a nightmare scenario for those rooting against a Kansas City threepeat, and another team in the AFC needs to take McConkey before the Chiefs are on the clock if only to keep him away from them. Carolina at No. 33 in a trade up for McConkey is another possibility.