The NFL is down to its final four teams, with a great AFC rivalry and an NFC East showdown on Championship Sunday.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) | Last week: 1
A lot of the talk during the Divisional Round was about the Chiefs getting favorable calls in the win over the Texans, which is unfortunate. That said, the Chiefs didn’t beat themselves and made timely stops on defense, following the formula that’s helped them win back-to-back championships. Kansas City is favored to get past Buffalo at home, but I wouldn’t be surprised if things shift slightly to the Bills by kickoff. The Chiefs are at No. 1 thanks to their homefield advantage—but let’s hope the officiating doesn’t play a role for either side.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) | Last week: 3 (+1)
Current odds at places like VegasInsider have the Eagles as the bigger favorites for Championship Sunday, which also plays a role in them being the overall favorites to win it all among the four remaining squads—i.e., the oddsmakers feel more confident they’ll at least advance to the Super Bowl with a chance to win it. However, the Commanders arguably have the momentum on their side with a seven-game winning streak that included knocking off the top-seeded Lions. Overall, Lincoln Financial Field is a tough place to win in the postseason, and—contrary to media narratives—Jalen Hurts has stepped up in big moments throughout his career.
3. Buffalo Bills (15-4) | Last week: 4 (+1)
I admittedly didn’t think the Bills would get past the Ravens, but Sean McDermott’s defense came out fired up and did enough early in the game to contain Derrick Henry and force a couple of Lamar Jackson turnovers, allowing the squad to build a lead that they held onto. Buffalo must contain Patrick Mahomes in key moments as well as get home for at least a timely sack or two—something that’s been elusive to them in the past.
4. Washington Commanders (14-5) | Last week: 7 (+3)
Again, Washington is hot with seven straight wins and an emphatic victory at Ford Field on Saturday night. A big part of what makes them so dangerous is that it almost feels like they are playing with house money with the way they go for it on fourth down. If you think about it, they almost have four plays to get 2.5 yards per play if they’re able to approach opposing territory. Dan Quinn has his guys bought in, and they have a legitimate chance to win this week and compete in the Big Game.
5. Detroit Lions (15-3) | Last week: 2 (-3)
The Lions feel like a squad that simply ran out of gas, as it certainly didn’t help losing cornerback Amik Robertson early in the 45-31 loss to the Commanders. Ultimately, the plethora of injuries were just too much to overcome, especially when you don’t play a clean game on offense with four turnovers. Detroit is now set to get two new coordinators, including offensive coordinator Ben Johnson staying in the division by taking the lead job with the Bears. But general manager Brad Holmes has built a roster that’ll last as a contender.
6. Baltimore Ravens (13-6) | Last week: 5 (-1)
The Ravens also didn’t play a clean game, in some ways beating themselves in the loss at Buffalo. Everyone wanted to make the Josh Allen-Lamar Jackson matchup some type of referendum, but—while the interception and fumble didn’t help his case—Ravens fans should be encouraged by what we saw from Jackson this postseason. He didn’t seem to press like he did in previous Januarys, and his 89-yard potential game-tying drive was a great sign for his ability to come through in crunch time moving forward.
7. Los Angeles Rams (11-8) | Last week: 6 (-1)
It looked like the Rams were out of it after Saquon Barkley’s second long touchdown run in the Divisional Round with a little over four minutes remaining, but give Sean McVay’s group credit for battling back and putting Philly on the ropes. There are some questions about the futures of Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, but Los Angeles has a good young core to work with.
8. Houston Texans (11-8) | Last week: 8
The displeasure the Texans—from head coach DeMeco Ryans to top players—voiced, asserting that they knew the officiating would be against them at Arrowhead, was very interesting. But it’s difficult to blame them; questionable officiating is obviously not something you’d like to see in a high-stakes game. Houston made it further than most expected during the playoffs, showing the type of fight you can build on.