The Falcons have high expectations with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, and the pressure is immediately on the regime to have success. If you like the analysis here, consider signing up for our free newsletter to get can’t-miss NFL news and insights straight to your inbox every week.
- 2023 finish: 7-10 (third in NFC South); missed playoffs
- Over/under: 9.5 wins
Notable additions
QB Kirk Cousins, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Ray-Ray McCloud III, WR James Washington, WR Jakeem Grant, OT Julién Davenport, OLB Bradlee Anae, CB Kevin King, CB Antonio Hamilton, S Dane Cruikshank, HC Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson
Notable losses
QB Desmond Ridder, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Van Jefferson, WR Mack Hollins, WR Scotty Miller, TE Jonnu Smith, TE MyCole Pruitt, DL Calais Campbell, DL Albert Huggins, OLB Bud Dupree, LB Andre Smith, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Tre Flowers, HC Arthur Smith
2024 draft class
QB Michael Penix Jr. (1.08), DL Ruke Orhorhoro (2.35), OLB Bralen Trice (3.74), DL Brandon Dorlus (4.109), LB JD Bertrand (5.143), RB Jase McClellan (6.186), WR Casey Washington (6.187), DL Zion Logue (6.197)
Projected starters
QB: Kirk Cousins
RB: Bijan Robinson
WR: Drake London
WR: Darnell Mooney
WR: Ray-Ray McCloud III
TE: Kyle Pitts
LT: Jake Matthews
LG: Matthew Bergeron
C: Drew Dalman
RG: Chris Lindstrom
RT: Kaleb McGary
DL: Grady Jarrett
DL: David Onyemata
OLB: Lorenzo Carter
ILB: Kaden Elliss
ILB: Troy Andersen
OLB: Arnold Ebiketie
CB: A.J. Terrell
S: Jessie Bates III
S: Richie Grant
SCB: Dee Alford
CB: Clark Phillips III
2024 outlook
Atlanta was notably the leading candidate to hire Bill Belichick this offseason, so there could be a lot of second guessing if the year doesn’t go according to plan—particularly considering the resources spent by signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $160 million deal, along with allocating top-ten picks on a quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.), running back (Bijan Robinson), wide receiver (Drake London), and tight end (Kyle Pitts) in recent offseasons. Players and fellow coaches have indicated that Raheem Morris is ready for his second chance to be a head coach, and he’ll primarily be tasked with boosting a defense that many were excited about Belichick getting a chance to work with.
The decision to take Penix Jr. has the domino effect of not having a premier rookie pass rusher like Laiatu Latu or Dallas Turner, so Morris will try to maximize what he has similar to last year with a largely unheralded group in Los Angeles. There are certainly strong options on the backend, but generating a pass rush is key, particularly off the edges to support Grady Jarrett on the interior; and more will be on Lorenzo Carter and Arnold Ebiketie with third-round rookie Bralen Trice (knee) out for the year after going down in the preseason opener.
On offense, Kirk Cousins is working back from a torn Achilles, but you can be sure he will have a chip on his shoulder due to his own team selecting a successor without warning in the 2024 NFL Draft. All he can do is control what he does on the field, though, and Drake London has flashed big-time potential, Kyle Pitts can be a dominant tight end, and everything will revolve around Bijan Robinson and a tremendous offensive line. Also, don’t sleep on Darnell Mooney as a complementary weapon with vertical ability, and Ray-Ray McCloud III seemed to be pushing Rondale Moore (now out for the year with a leg injury) for the No. 3 role before Moore went down last week. If Cousins plays well coming off his own injury, the offense can be one of the NFL’s best.
Position battle to watch: Cornerback
A.J. Terrell is right in his prime entering his age-25/26 season, and he’s a clear No. 1 cornerback that Atlanta will count on to slow down top wideouts in the NFC. I am very surprised that the initial depth chart listed Clark Phillips III as a backup with Mike Hughes and Dee Alford as the starters, but I’d be even more surprised if Phillips doesn’t emerge both based on what he showed as a rookie and how he played at Utah.
Breakout candidate: CB Clark Phillips III
Phillips has everything you want in a cornerback aside from prototypical size, as he’s extremely sticky, very instinctive, competitive, willing to tackle, and able to take the ball away at a high level. Plus, he’s shown that he’s perfectly capable of playing on the outside despite measuring at five-foot-nine, so I’m betting on him to earn a starting job either on the perimeter or in the slot and enjoying a breakout campaign.
Circle on the calendar: Week 2 (@ PHI) | Monday, September 16 – 8:15 PM ET
The Falcons play the Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 2, and Kirk Cousins faring better than he has in recent matchups when he was with the Vikings would bode well for Atlanta’s rest-of-season outlook. On the other hand, a loss compounded with a matchup versus the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 3 could really cause the pressure to intensify, so it’s important for the Falcons to start the year playing good football.
Bottom line
Atlanta has plenty of talent on offense, but the decision to take Michael Penix Jr. in the draft is one that leaves them open for scrutiny—especially because of what they potentially passed up in a high-end pass rusher. Of course, winning will silence any critics, and the Falcons are the favorites in the NFC South entering 2024.