The Bills are counting on young players to step up in 2024 after key departures such as Stefon Diggs, Tre’Davious White, and Jordan Poyer. If you like the analysis here, consider signing up for our free newsletter to get can’t-miss NFL news and insights straight to your inbox every week.
- 2023 finish: (11-6, first in AFC East); lost to KC in Div. Round
- Over/under: 10.5 wins
Notable additions
QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Mack Hollins, WR Chase Claypool, OL La’el Collins, OL Will Clapp, DE Dawuane Smoot, DE Casey Toohill, DT Austin Johnson, DT DeShawn Williams, LB Nicholas Morrow, LB Deion Jones, S Mike Edwards, S Kareem Jackson
Notable losses
RB Nyheim Hines, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, WR Deonte Harty, WR Trent Sherfield, OL Ryan Bates, C Mitch Morse, DE Shaq Lawson, DT Jordan Phillips, DT Tim Settle, DT Poona Ford, DT Linval Joseph, LB Tyrel Dodson, LB A.J. Klein, CB Tre’Davious White, DB Siran Neal, S Jordan Poyer, S Micah Hyde
2024 draft class
WR Keon Coleman (2.33), S Cole Bishop (2.60), DT DeWayne Carter (3.95), RB Ray Davis (4.128), C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (5.141), LB Edefuan Ulofoshio (5.160), DE Javon Solomon (5.168), OT Tylan Grable (6.204), CB Daequan Hardy (6.219), OT Travis Clayton (7.221)
Projected starters
QB: Josh Allen
RB: James Cook
WR: Keon Coleman (R)
WR: Curtis Samuel
WR: Khalil Shakir
TE: Dalton Kincaid
LT: Dion Dawkins
LG: David Edwards
C: Connor McGovern
RG: O’Cyrus Torrence
RT: Spencer Brown
DE: Von Miller
DT: Ed Oliver
DT: DaQuan Jones
DE: Greg Rousseau
LB: Matt Milano
LB: Terrel Bernard
CB: Rasul Douglas
FS: Cole Bishop (R)
SS: Taylor Rapp
SCB: Taron Johnson
CB: Christian Benford
2024 outlook
Another crushing playoff loss (again to the Chiefs) despite more lights-out play from Josh Allen in January led to a soft reboot for the Bills this offseason, but that doesn’t mean they need to take a step back. Stefon Diggs is the headlining subtraction from a core that just couldn’t get over the hump over the past few years, so it’ll be up to Dalton Kincaid and new additions at wide receiver to step up for Allen—who could be even tougher to defend for opponents with an offensive attack that is expected to change from week to week.
Not having to worry about getting Diggs targets could also allow Allen to play more relaxed and let things come to him, and I would argue that Tre’Davious White will be the more impactful loss for Buffalo; he obviously dealt with major injuries and is coming off a torn Achilles, but White was still playing at a high level and was the first pick of the Sean McDermott era back in 2017 as a great presence on the field and in the locker room.
To make up for the losses of White, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde, the Bills need Von Miller to turn back the clock after he showed flashes down the stretch in 2023—and it sounds like he has looked good to begin camp. They also need Matt Milano to stay healthy alongside Terrel Bernard, and I like the selection of DeWayne Carter to rotate behind Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones at defensive tackle, so I expect McDermott’s unit to be fine.
Position battle to watch: Safety
The recent signing of Kareem Jackson adds another feared defender on the backend to join the physical Taylor Rapp, and the Bills also added a couple of well-rounded playmakers in rookie Cole Bishop and veteran Mike Edwards—with Bishop notably being a guy we compared to Edwards in the pre-draft process. Damar Hamlin will also make a case for playing time, and the combination of versatility and aggressiveness for the new-look group is exciting.
Breakout candidate: TE Dalton Kincaid
This one is easy, as Kincaid is one of the top breakout candidates in the entire league, with the best-case scenario being Josh Allen having his own version of Travis Kelce for the next ten years. As a rookie, Kincaid caught 73 passes despite not really being featured, and he’s a mismatch nightmare all over the field as the probable No. 1 option with Stefon Diggs gone.
Circle on the calendar: Week 11 (v KC) | Sunday, November 17 – 4:25 PM ET
The matchups versus the Dolphins and Jets will be crucial for Buffalo to repeat in the AFC East for the fifth consecutive season, but Kansas City is always the game circled on the calendar for them—though a potential rematch in January (0-3 record) matters more than what happens against Patrick Mahomes in the regular season (3-1 record).
Bottom line
I don’t think it’s possible for more to be put on a player’s shoulders than Josh Allen in recent years, so the changes to Buffalo’s roster will hopefully make things easier on him—and the offensive line should be one of the game’s best. If ultra-talented rookie wideout Keon Coleman can quickly emerge and Von Miller is more like himself in January, there is no reason the Bills can’t finally get past the Chiefs as the biggest threat to them in the AFC.