The Texans were a surprise contender in 2023, and now expectations are deservedly high for a squad led by DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud. If you like the analysis here, consider signing up for our free newsletter to get can’t-miss NFL news and insights straight to your inbox every week.

 

• 2023 finish: 10-7 (first in AFC South); lost to BAL in Div. Round
• Over/under: 9.5 wins

 

Notable additions

RB Cam Akers, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Ben Skowronek, OL Cameron Erving, DE Danielle Hunter, DL Denico Autry, DT Folorunso Fatukasi, DT Mario Edwards Jr., LB Azeez Al-Shaair, LB Jacob Phillips, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Myles Bryant, CB CJ Henderson, S Lonnie Johnson Jr., P Tommy Townsend

 

Notable losses

RB Devin Singletary, RB Mike Boone, OT George Fant, OT Josh Jones, OT Austin Deculus, OL Michael Deiter, DE Jonathan Greenard, DT Maliek Collins, DT Sheldon Rankins, DT Hassan Ridgeway, DT Teair Tart, LB Blake Cashman, LB Denzel Perryman, CB Steven Nelson, CB Shaquill Griffin, CB Tavierre Thomas, CB Ka’dar Hollman, S Adrian Amos, S DeAndre Houston-Carson, S Grayland Arnold, P Cameron Johnston

 

2024 draft class

CB Kamari Lassiter (2.42), OT Blake Fisher (2.59), S Calen Bullock (3.78). TE Cade Stover (4.123), LB Jamal Hill (6.188), RB Jawhar Jordan (6.205), DE Solomon Byrd (7.238), DT Marcus Harris (7.247), G LaDarius Henderson (7.249)

 

Projected starters

QB: C.J. Stroud
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: Stefon Diggs
WR: Nico Collins
WR: Tank Dell
TE: Dalton Schultz
LT: Laremy Tunsil
LG: Kenyon Green
C: Juice Scruggs
RG: Shaq Mason
RT: Tytus Howard

 

DE: Will Anderson Jr.
DT: Folorunso Fatukasi
DT: Mario Edwards Jr.
DE: Danielle Hunter
LB: Christian Harris
LB: Azeez Al-Shaair
CB: Derek Stingley Jr.
S: Jalen Pitre
S: Jimmie Ward
SCB: Desmond King II
CB: Kamari Lassiter (R)

 

2024 outlook

Houston building up the roster under general manager Nick Caserio with plenty of veteran additions in recent years came to fruition when they hit on the head coach and quarterback last offseason—allowing the team to go from 3-13-1 to winning the AFC South and a playoff game. I believe the unsung hero of last season was offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, as he did a remarkable job dialing things up for C.J Stroud, and the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year took full advantage by routinely connecting on downfield throws while showing more as a second-chance playmaker than he did in college (outside of his final game in a loss to Georgia).

 

Now, the Texans have a confident MVP candidate under center and added star power in the form of Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs, though I will be interested in how opponents adjust to Slowik’s scheme and Stroud’s play after diving into the tape all offseason. If Diggs still has enough juice in the tank and Tank Dell stays healthy, though, it’s tough to imagine Stroud slowing down no matter what defenses try to do; that’s especially true with Mixon boosting the running game and the offensive line being one of the league’s best.

 

Star power was also added to the defense with Danielle Hunter creating a nightmare tandem with Will Anderson Jr. on the edge, and the pass rush will be scary once Denico Autry—coming off a career-high 11.5 sacks—returns from his six-game suspension. The run defense could theoretically take a step back with Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins gone, but the unit allowed just 3.5 yards per carry last year, and DeMeco Ryans probably wouldn’t stand for a substantial decline no matter who they have on the interior.

 

Position battle to watch: Wide receiver depth

There might not be much room for targets behind the exciting trio of Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell, but C.J. Stroud said he feels like he has five No. 1 wide receivers like he did at Ohio State—so we’ll see Robert Woods, Noah Brown, and John Metchie III all competing for snaps behind the starers. As we near cutdown day, I would keep an eye on a possible trade, and the Eagles are a team that immediately comes to mind for either Metchie (as rumored) or Woods.

 

Breakout candidate: G Kenyon Green

The No. 15 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Green’s career has not started like he or the Texans would have liked with some struggles as a rookie followed up by a missed 2023 campaign due to a shoulder injury suffered last preseason. Fortunately, he’s now healthy and seems to be in the best shape of his career, and the offensive line for Houston could be dominant opening holes for Joe Mixon if Green reaches the potential he showed at Texas A&M.

 

Circle on the calendar: Week 17 (v BAL) | Wednesday, December 25 – 4:30 PM ET

A playoff rematch on Christmas Day—with seeding implications almost certainly on the line—is tough to top, and the Texans will be hoping to knock off Baltimore as an opponent Stroud and the offense couldn’t really solve in 2023 with a loss also coming in the opener. Still, Stroud was a rookie facing a top defense led by Roquan Smith, and the rematch should be awesome.

 

Bottom line

The AFC is very difficult to get through in January, but Houston has the key pillars in place to make a deep run, including added star power with Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, and Danielle Hunter. If they stay healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Texans run away with the division.