The Jaguars have gone 9-8 in both seasons since hiring Doug Pederson, and another offseason with heavy spending raises expectations for 2024. If you like the analysis here, consider signing up for our free newsletter to get can’t-miss NFL news and insights straight to your inbox every week.
- 2023 finish: 9-8 (second in AFC South); missed playoffs
- Over/under: 8.5 wins
Notable additions
QB Mac Jones, RB Gary Brightwell, WR Gabe Davis, WR Devin Duvernay, WR Denzel Mims, TE Josiah Deguara, C Mitch Morse, DE Trevis Gipson, DE Rasheem Green, DT Arik Armstead, DT Breeland Speaks, LB Tanner Muse, CB Ronald Darby, S Darnell Savage, S Tashaun Gipson, S Adrian Amos, K Joey Slye, DC Ryan Nielsen
Notable losses
QB Matt Barkley, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Zay Jones, WR Jamal Agnew, DE Dawuane Smoot, DT Folorunso Fatukasi, DT Angelo Blackson, DT Adam Gotsis, DE K’Lavon Chaisson, LB Shaquille Quarterman, CB Darious Williams, CB Tre Herndon, CB Chris Claybrooks, S Rayshawn Jenkins, K Brandon McManus, DC Mike Caldwell
2024 draft class
WR Brian Thomas Jr. (1.23), DT Maason Smith (2.48), CB Jarrian Jones (3.96), OT Javon Foster (4.114), DT Jordan Jefferson (4.116), CB Deantre Prince (5.153), RB Keilan Robinson (5.167), K Cam Little (6.212), DE Myles Cole (7.236)
Projected starters
QB: Trevor Lawrence
RB: Travis Etienne Jr.
WR: Christian Kirk
WR: Gabe Davis
WR: Brian Thomas Jr. (R)
TE: Evan Engram
LT: Cam Robinson
LG: Ezra Cleveland
C: Mitch Morse
RG: Brandon Scherff
RT: Anton Harrison
DE: Josh Hines-Allen
DT: Arik Armstead
DT: DaVon Hamilton
DE: Travon Walker
LB: Foyesade Oluokun
LB: Chad Muma
CB: Tyson Campbell
S: Andre Cisco
S: Darnell Savage
SCB: Christian Braswell
CB: Ronald Darby
2024 outlook
Jacksonville locked up Trevor Lawrence and Josh Hines-Allen as the faces of the franchise this offseason, but there were some changes elsewhere by remaking the receiving corps behind Christian Kirk, getting a new center in Mitch Morse, acquiring Arik Armstead in a trade with the 49ers, and hiring a new defensive coordinator with Ryan Nielsen implementing a 4-3 scheme. Considering all the money spent under general manager Trent Baalke, there will surely be some urgency to finish with double-digit wins, as the roster has been remade since the brief Urban Meyer era.
On offense, Lawrence is now expected to perform closer to a superstar-level quarterback after signing the five-year, $275 million extension in June, and I’m excited to see him be more aggressive pushing the ball downfield with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. providing increased firepower. In turn, that should create more running room for Travis Etienne Jr. (who is expected to be used in a more creative role this year) and space for Christian Kirk and Evan Engram to work underneath; plus, Parker Washington seems primed for a Year 2 leap if he can see enough snaps.
For the defense to reach its full potential, former No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker needs to continue his ascension after 10.0 sacks in 2023, and the new scheme might be a more natural fit for him to get his hand in the dirt more often. As is the case with many teams around the league this year, cornerback is the potential issue if Ronald Darby—entering his age-30 season—doesn’t pan out as a free agent signing, but Amani Oruwariye is someone to keep an eye on if he enters the lineup across from Tyson Campbell at some point.
Position battle to watch: Linebacker
One overlooked storyline in Jacksonville this year is the battle at linebacker with 2022 first-round pick Devin Lloyd being pushed for snaps by fellow third-year player Chad Muma—as the situation is fluid with Muma listed as a co-starter at both outside linebacker spots. The new 4-3 front will result in both guys seeing action next to Foyesade Oluokun, but Lloyd hasn’t quite lived up to expectations through two seasons and could be used in more of a do-it-all role with Muma taking a lot of the traditional linebacker duties.
Breakout candidate: OT Anton Harrison
As mentioned, the offensive line added Mitch Morse to anchor things at center, but the rest of the starters return from a season ago—including Harrison entering his second season at right tackle. I would’ve liked to have seen last year’s No. 27 overall pick jump right in on the blindside (where he played at Oklahoma), but he showed well as a 21-year-old rookie and should be more comfortable on the right side in 2024.
Circle on the calendar: Week 6 (@ CHI) | Sunday, October 13 – 9:30 AM ET
The Jaguars have a tough stretch—@ MIA, v CLE, @ BUF, @ HOU, v IND—leading up to their two-game stint in London, and no matter how the first five games go, the matchup versus Chicago could be a pivot point in the season. Last year, a win over Buffalo across the pond gave Jacksonville momentum that was carried to an 8-3 start before their end-of-season collapse, and it’ll be fun to watch them take on Caleb Williams and the Bears in Week 6.
Bottom line
Jacksonville expects to be back in the playoffs this year, but the combination of Trevor Lawrence and Josh Hines-Allen taking over like they did at the end of 2022 might be needed to get there. In a loaded conference, I’m just not quite sure all the right buttons have been pushed for them to be a legitimate contender.