The Bill Belichick era is over in New England, and the team is hoping to outperform expectations under a new regime. If you like the analysis here, consider signing up for our free newsletter to get can’t-miss NFL news and insights straight to your inbox every week.
- 2023 finish: 4-13 (last in AFC East); missed playoffs
- Over/under: 4.5 wins
Notable additions
QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, WR K.J. Osborn, TE Austin Hooper, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, G Nick Leverett, DL Armon Watts, OLB Oshane Ximines, ILB Sione Takitaki, S Jaylinn Hawkins, OC Alex Van Pelt
Notable losses
QB Mac Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Matthew Slater, WR DeVante Parker, TE Mike Gesicki, TE Pharaoh Brown, OT Trent Brown, OT Riley Reiff, DL Lawrence Guy, ILB Mack Wilson Sr., CB J.C. Jackson, CB Myles Bryant, S Adrian Phillips, S Jalen Mills, HC Bill Belichick
2024 draft class
QB Drake Maye (1.03), WR Ja’Lynn Polk (2.37), OT Caedan Wallace (3.68), G Layden Robinson (4.103), WR Javon Baker (4.110), CB Marcellas Dial (6.180), QB Joe Milton III (6.193), TE Jaheim Bell (7.231)
Projected starters
QB: Jacoby Brissett
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson
WR: Kendrick Bourne
WR: Ja’Lynn Polk (R)
WR: DeMario Douglas
TE: Hunter Henry
LT: Caedan Wallace (R)
LG: Sidy Sow
C: David Andrews
RG: Mike Onwenu
RT: Chukwuma Okorafor
DE: Keion White
DL: Davon Godchaux
OLB: Matthew Judon
ILB: Ja’Whaun Bentley
ILB: Jahlani Tavai
OLB: Joshua Uche
CB: Christian Gonzalez
FS: Jabrill Peppers
SS: Kyle Dugger
SCB: Marcus Jones
CB: Jonathan Jones
2024 outlook
The defining move for general manager Eliot Wolf and head coach Jerod Mayo will be the selection of Drake Maye with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but veteran Jacoby Brissett has the inside track to the starting job—and the team expects to immediately compete with a defense that continued to play at a high level under Bill Belichick and gets back Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones at cornerback.
However, the team worked to re-sign or extend a lot of players that have been in the building for a roster that has declined since Tom Brady left in 2020, and I frankly don’t see how losing the greatest coach of all-time will suddenly have the group playing better. Perhaps it’s an indication that a lot of the moves made in recent years have been more influenced by Wolf than we realized, and the patience of ownership will be interesting to follow this season and beyond.
As the win total indicates, New England is projected to be one of the worst teams in the league, but Drake Maye getting a shot to play and showing flashes would obviously bode well for the future. I have questions about many of the decisions made by the Patriots this offseason, but the early signing of Chukwuma Okorafor could prove to be a gem, and the offense probably won’t need to light up the scoreboard to be in games if the defense doesn’t take a step back—though two of the best defenders in Christian Barmore (blood clots) and Matthew Judon (currently “holding in”) are both up in the air.
Position battle to watch: Wide receiver
The construction of the wide receiver room—adding intermediate types like second-round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk and K.J. Osborn to a group that re-signed Kendrick Bourne and now has a lot of overlapping skillsets—was odd to me, but roles are up for grabs with DeMario Douglas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kayshon Boutte, Jalen Reagor, and others competing for playing time. For an offense that lacks a vertical element, keep an eye on fourth-round rookie Javon Baker emerging as the season progresses.
Breakout candidate: CB Marcus Jones
Maybe this doesn’t count because Jones was already a First-Team All-Pro punt returner as a rookie before injuries limited him to two games last season, but I’m excited to see him on defense as a playmaking slot cornerback that could see plenty of action if teams avoid Christian Gonzalez. In college, Jones had five interceptions in his final season at Houston—and he also saw offensive action as rookie with four receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown.
Circle on the calendar: Week 1 (@ CIN) | Sunday, September 8 – 1:00 PM ET
The entire schedule for September (@ CIN, v SEA, @ NYJ, @ SF) could be circled to give us a glimpse of what kind of season the Patriots might have, but Cincinnati seems to start slow—so it’s an opportunity to start the post-Belichick era on the right foot. Unfortunately, the opponents don’t get much easier the rest of the way, which makes an encouraging start all the more important.
Bottom line
Jacoby Brissett is a steady hand that will be at the wheel until Drake Maye is ready, but I can’t buy into New England—with a similar roster to a season ago—being better than they were under Belichick. I would expect the Pats to be picking towards or at the top of the 2025 NFL Draft, and the real intrigue would set in if Maye plays and struggles as a rookie.