The Buccaneers have won the NFC South in each of past three seasons (with a Super Bowl the year before it), so they could be getting overlooked in 2024. If you like the analysis here, consider signing up for our free newsletter to get can’t-miss NFL news and insights straight to your inbox every week.
- 2023 finish: 9-8 (first in NFC South); lost to DET in Div. Round
- Over/under: 7.5 wins
Notable additions
WR Sterling Shepard, WR Cody Thompson, G Ben Bredeson, DL Earnest Brown, OLB Randy Gregory, CB Bryce Hall, CB Tavierre Thomas, S Jordan Whitehead, OC Liam Coen
Notable losses
WR Russell Gage, WR David Moore, WR Deven Thompkins, G Aaron Stinnie, G Nick Leverett, OL Matt Feiler, C Ryan Jensen, DL Pat O’Connor, OLB Shaquil Barrett, LB Devin White, LB Cam Gill, CB Carlton Davis III, DB Dee Delaney, S Ryan Neal, OC Dave Canales
2024 draft class
C Graham Barton (1.26), OLB Chris Braswell (2.57), S Tykee Smith (3.89), WR Jalen McMillan (3.92), RB Bucky Irving (4.125), G Elijah Klein (6.220), TE Devin Culp (7.246)
Projected starters
QB: Baker Mayfield
RB: Rachaad White
WR: Mike Evans
WR: Chris Godwin
WR: Jalen McMillan (R)
TE: Cade Otton
LT: Tristan Wirfs
LG: Ben Bredeson
C: Graham Barton (R)
RG: Cody Mauch
RT: Luke Goedeke
DE: Calijah Kancey
DT: Vita Vea
DE: Logan Hall
OLB: Yaya Diaby
ILB: Lavonte David
ILB: K.J. Britt
OLB: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
CB: Jamel Dean
S: Antoine Winfield Jr.
S: Jordan Whitehead
CB: Zyon McCollum
2024 outlook
The Falcons signing Kirk Cousins has made them the favorites in the division, but Tampa Bay has a proud group led by Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield—and one that will surely take the outside expectations as disrespect. Similar to the rival Saints, the roster largely brings back the same core from recent years, including the return of Jordan Whiteside to join the extended Antoine Winfield Jr. on the backend; and offensively, Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Tristan Wirfs were all extended as they look to build on last season when they beat the Eagles and gave the Lions a fight in the playoffs.
In general, I’m excited about how the offense will look under new OC Liam Coen, as Chris Godwin will be featured more in the slot like he was earlier in his career, and Coen wants to get the running game going after Rachaad White—even in a breakout campaign—was limited to 3.6 yards per carry in 2023. Also, the rookie trio of Graham Barton (who we loved coming out of Duke), Jalen McMillan, and Bucky Irving are all tremendous fits to add new blood to the attack, so the offense should be more complete than it was a season ago.
My big concern about Tampa Bay is the potential weakness at cornerback with Carlton Davis III traded to the Lions, as Jamel Dean is their only proven guy—and he often seems to get nicked up (remember, his back injury during the playoff loss to Detroit sort of changed the game). We’ll see if the combination of Zyon McCollum, Christian Izien, and Bryce Hall will step up as the No. 2 and No. 3 cornerbacks, but the deep pass rush being effective is key to take the pressure off the secondary.
Position battle to watch: Inside linebacker
K.J. Britt emerged last season to essentially take the starting job from Devin White alongside Lavonte David, and his old-school, downhill play style helps set the tone with physicality versus the run. That said, undrafted rookie Kalen DeLoach has had an outstanding summer to already be listed as a second-team linebacker, and while he’s more of a fit for the role David plays, he could work his way onto the field in passing situations or when Tampa Bay needs more sideline-to-sideline range.
Breakout candidate: DL Logan Hall
I would have picked one of the aforementioned rookies on offense if they qualified, but Hall is entering his third season and has the size (six-foot-six, 283 pounds) and athleticism to hit his ceiling on a defensive line with Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey. After starting 13 games in 2023, I’ll say Hall puts it all together to make more of an impact, including as a pass rusher.
Circle on the calendar: Week 1 (v WAS) | Sunday, September 8 – 4:25 PM ET
Speaking of the pass rush, I’m excited to see how much Todd Bowles ratchets up the pressure in the opener versus No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels—who showed some issues when the pocket collapsed with no escape at LSU. At the same time, Daniels being protected could allow him to completely shred Tampa Bay both through the air and on the ground if the cornerbacks are an issue and he’s able to avoid pressure, though Kalen DeLoach could be a secret weapon as a quarterback spy based on how he excelled versus Daniels last year in the opener for Florida State.
Bottom line
The Bucs should be getting more respect in the NFC South, but the cornerbacks could be a fatal flaw that the rest of the team can’t overcome in a worst-case scenario. Taking another step on offense and having the defensive front create havoc with Bowles directing things are reasons to believe Tampa Bay can again make noise in January.