Overall: 183-98-1
#2 NE (16-3) @ #1 DEN (15-3)
Sunday, January 25 | 3:00 PM ET | CBS
The season-ending ankle injury for Bo Nix being revealed after Denver’s overtime win over Buffalo was among the most stunning stories in NFL history—and the line swinging by a touchdown in New England’s favor shows how valuable the second-year quarterback is. Unfortunately, almost everyone is still overlooking how great Nix was last week, all season, and through his first two years in the league, but there is no way the Broncos are in the position they are in right now if not for their signal-caller developing into a superstar. The team will now be counting on Jarrett Stidham to lead them to Super Bowl LX, and we’ll see if Pat Bryant (concussion) and Troy Franklin (hamstring) are able to suit up to boost the supporting cast; remember, Nix has been carrying Denver with a limited running game, but the silver lining of Bryant and Franklin going down last week was that it led to Marvin Mims Jr.—who has proven to be one of the most clutch players in the league—being featured with an 8/93/1 line on eight targets. Based on how Sean Payton has backed Stidham, I would expect him to play very well, but things will be up to the defense with Nix out of the lineup (it’d be asking a lot for Stidham to win another shootout if that’s what it comes down to). The “soft” schedule for New England continuing into the postseason with Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud performing about as poorly as possible has overshadowed Drake Maye not playing well through two playoff games, and Pat Surtain II locking up Stefon Diggs a couple of years ago (one reception for 11 yards against him) is notable. With the homefield advantage and energy from the Broncos to win for Nix, I like them to pressure Maye and pull off the upset.
Winner: Denver Broncos
#5 LAR (14-5) @ #1 SEA (15-3)
Sunday, January 25 | 6:30 PM ET | NBC
If there was any doubt about them entering their Divisional Round matchup, Seattle proved to be a powerhouse with a 41-6 dismantling of the 49ers last Saturday night—showing their dominance in all three phases with a kick return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed to open the game, three touchdowns by Kenneth Walker III on the ground, and by holding Kyle Shanahan’s offense to 236 total yards (with three turnovers). The Rams are arguably the toughest opponent possible after a split in the regular season with Sam Darnold combining for six interceptions, but his confidence should only be growing as the Seahawks advance further as a team. While the big concern is Charles Cross (foot) and backup left tackle Josh Jones (knee/ankle) both potentially being out, Seattle has a top coaching staff and will game plan around it the best they can. Defensively, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mike Macdonald play more man coverage after Puka Nacua destroyed the zone looks in the December meeting (12/225/2), but that would slant things towards Davante Adams perhaps being a problem or Matthew Stafford being more eager to hit his tight ends on vertical throws. The wild card is Darnold’s effectiveness if the offense needs to open up as he deals with his oblique injury (just 17 pass attempts last week; 39.0 attempts per game versus LA in the regular season)—but in a year with more craziness and parity than ever, we could end up having the No. 1 seed in each conference make it to Super Bowl LX.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks