Regular season: 179-92-1
Overall: 182-95-1
#6 BUF (13-5) @ #1 DEN (14-3)
Saturday, January 17 | 4:30 PM ET | CBS
The Divisional Round kicks off with a rematch from last postseason (in the Wild Card Round) where the underdog Broncos struck first with a 43-yard touchdown strike from Bo Nix to Troy Franklin—but Buffalo took control after that in an eventual 31-7 victory. While many who don’t know what they’re watching tried to use the Denver loss as reason to discredit Nix, he played very well and was not helped by his supporting cast, and that includes the running game (he led the team with 43 yards on four carries). Unfortunately for the Broncos, the Bills are the one team they don’t match up well against, and Sean Payton even admitted as such last January; not much has changed since then with J.K. Dobbins (foot) out, and the main question I’ve had about Denver dating back to the offseason was whether enough was added around Nix. The Broncos obviously have the benefit of homefield advantage this year, though, and perhaps going to Mile High will be too draining for a Buffalo squad that really needs to rely on toughness—like wide receiver Tyrell Shavers playing through a torn ACL last week—and for Josh Allen to be lights out to make up for a lack of talent. Still, the Bills will likely run the ball at a high level with James Cook III (23 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown last year), and for as good as they are, there were too many games where Denver’s defense struggled this season. With how stingy Sean McDermott’s secondary is on the perimeter, someone stepping up for Nix like Parker Washington did in Jacksonville last weekend is probably necessary to win.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
#6 SF (13-5) @ #1 SEA (14-3)
Saturday, January 17 | 8:00 PM ET | FOX
You can’t say enough about how great of a coach Kyle Shanahan is by keeping San Francisco in legitimate Super Bowl contention with now three top superstars—George Kittle (Achilles), Nick Bosa (knee), and Fred Warner (ankle)—out of the lineup, and Brock Purdy also deserves a ton of credit for continuing to fire in a two-interception game in the win over the Eagles. Although there is some concern about Purdy not being at his best last week and in the Week 18 loss to Seattle, I think getting a victory could be enough to snap him back into how hot he was in December (297.7 passing yards per game and an 11:2 touchdown-interception ratio); and it’s notable that he is now 5-2 in the playoffs with the only losses being when he was injured versus Philadelphia in 2023 and the overtime defeat to Kansas City in Super Bowl LVIII. Looking back at the Week 18 game this season, the Niners struggled to stop Kenneth Walker III (20 touches for 133 yards) and Zach Charbonnet (20 touches for 97 yards and a touchdown), but Jaxon Smith-Njigba picking up six first downs (via reception or penalty) in a low-scoring game was huge, too. Based on the key absences for San Francisco and all the talent on both sides of the ball for Seattle, I like them to win a close one at home if Sam Darnold takes care of the ball.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
#5 HOU (13-5) @ #2 NE (15-3)
Sunday, January 18 | 3:00 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
The Chargers could do nothing on offense last Sunday night, but there were plays to be had down the field that Justin Herbert didn’t pull the trigger on—and the Patriots potentially being without Christian Gonzalez (concussion) would make it even more important for others to tighten things up in coverage. Of course, the Texans not having top wideout Nico Collins (concussion) seems to be all but a certainty at this point after he went down on Monday night, so look for rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to be X-factors behind Christian Kirk; and I fully expect C.J. Stroud to be much better after three turnovers in the win over Pittsburgh, as DeMeco Ryans and the coaching staff has surely emphasized that they won’t win moving forward if he gives the ball away. On defense, the Texans could have a significant edge with Danielle Hunter mostly lining up against rookie Will Campbell, and it would not be a surprise at all if New England decides to bench the No. 4 overall pick if he struggles early (Vederian Lowe played very well in Campbell’s place last month). Also, similar to Stroud, the Pats need Drake Maye to be better than he was in the Wild Card Round with an interception, two fumbles, and five sacks taken—so I’m leaning towards the Texans again dominating on defense to reach the AFC Championship.
Winner: Houston Texans
#5 LAR (13-5) @ #2 CHI (12-6)
Sunday, January 18 | 6:30 PM ET | NBC
If all the down-to-the-wire thrillers Chicago has played this season are any indication, Rams-Bears should be another classic to close out the Divisional Round—and Sunday could be a game that shows the benefit of being a cold-weather team (something the organization should think about before locking in plans to build a dome). Ben Johnson himself said “I do like the cold” when talking about the forecast in the teens and possible snow this weekend, and Chicago apparently practicing outside without heaters pays dividends when playoff football arrives. In his career, Matthew Stafford has gone 3-3 in games below freezing, while Sean McVay is only 2-2—so there is both a lack of success and experience there. However, I would say snow (rather than simply frigid temperatures) could help even things out for Los Angeles like it did last year in the near Divisional Round win over Philadelphia, and Davante Adams went 14-2 versus the Bears during his time in Green Bay—which could be the difference compared to a season ago when LA came up short on the road. But there is just something about Caleb Williams elevating his play in big games and moments, as well as Johnson’s confidence spreading to the entire squad for Chicago to believe in their run continuing.
Winner: Chicago Bears