DAL @ PHI
Thursday, September 4 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
The Eagles begin their quest for a repeat with a matchup against their biggest rival to kick off the 2025 NFL season—and I doubt there has ever been a defending champion to have the mentality that Philadelphia does; whether it’s Jalen Hurts keeping a photo of the Super Bowl LVII loss as the lockscreen on his phone (despite overcoming Kansas City in the rematch), A.J. Brown training at the “most dangerous gym in America” this offseason to get back to his roots like something out of Rocky III, or Nick Siranni not even caring about the banner being dropped, the current core for the Eagles isn’t satisfied with one championship. If the Cowboys—now 8.5-point underdogs following the trade of Micah Parsons—are going to pull off an upset, Dak Prescott needs to play lights out with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens finding holes in Vic Fangio’s defense. He’ll have plenty of help over the top, but keep an eye on Adoree’ Jackson when matched up against Pickens on the outside as a potential weakness for Dallas to exploit.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
KC @ LAC
Friday, September 5 | 8:00 PM ET (Brazil) | YouTube
Los Angeles did a much better job stopping Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense last year under Jim Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter than they did in the Brandon Staley era—but they still lost both matchups, 17-10 and 19-17, which makes the Chargers 2-10 versus Mahomes heading into the Friday night showdown. I’m curious about how LA will rotate their cornerbacks with Cam Hart surprisingly not listed as a starter (veteran signing Donte Jackson is instead), but Minter said they have four starting options on the outside, and LA might prefer how Jackson matches up with the speed of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown. Either way, the Chiefs should be easier to defend with Rashee Rice suspended, and maybe the Chargers will have success controlling the tempo with a new backfield duo of Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton. But the story by the end of the night being the play of first-round pick Josh Simmons protecting Mahomes on the blindside is easy to imagine, and I think the rest of the league will regret letting the former Ohio State star fall to Kansas City in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
TB @ ATL
Sunday, September 7 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Week 1 always carries some unpredictability, but Tampa Bay and Atlanta had a couple of shootouts last year, and we could get another this weekend based on all the offensive firepower on both sides. The Bucs aren’t at full strength right now, though, as Chris Godwin Jr. (ankle) and Tristan Wirfs (knee) will be out on offense, and Vita Vea (foot) could be out as well—which would make things a lot easier on Bijan Robinson and the running game for the Falcons. In general, Atlanta’s success this season will obviously be dependent on the play of Michael Penix Jr. as he takes over for Kirk Cousins, but I’m just as intrigued by the young pieces on defense with four key players from the rookie class with Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. boosting the pass rush, Billy Bowman Jr. starting in the slot, and Xavier Watts—who somehow lasted until the late third round—earning the job next to Justin Simmons at safety. The Falcons might have problems with the Bucs’ standout rookie Emeka Egbuka if A.J. Terrell Jr. follows Mike Evans, but I like Atlanta to get a home win with Tampa Bay not at full strength.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
CIN @ CLE
Sunday, September 7 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Cleveland hasn’t been a fun place to play for the Bengals in recent matchups (13.3 points per game over the past three games), and there are still questions about the Cincinnati offensive line with Joe Burrow getting pressured more than anyone would have liked in the preseason finale (both versus the starters and backups for Washington). The Browns somehow being competitive in the AFC North would mostly be about the defense, but I don’t think enough has been made of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (neck) and Martin Emerson Jr. (Achilles) being out for the season—as JOK is an All-Pro-caliber linebacker, and Emerson had the length to match up with Tee Higgins to pair with Denzel Ward causing some fits for Ja’Marr Chase. On offense, Cleveland’s desired formula of running the ball to establish play-action passes for Joe Flacco might not be as effective with Quinshon Judkins still unsigned, but I was very high on Dylan Sampson coming out of Tennessee, and him having a big game could lead to another upset if the Bengals can’t protect Burrow.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
MIA @ IND
Sunday, September 7 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
This is the toughest game of the week to pick for me, and Daniel Jones might be tested immediately if Miami’s front—bolstered in a big way with first-round pick Kenneth Grant—doesn’t get moved off the ball to open holes for Jonathan Taylor with Indianapolis having two new starters on the interior. If things do fall on Jones, the Dolphins have a very vulnerable cornerback group, and the Colts don’t lack for playmakers with Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell; that’s without even mentioning No. 14 overall pick Tyler Warren at tight end and hopefully more involvement for Taylor as a pass-catcher. On the other side of the ball, Dolphins left tackle Patrick Paul will get a big first test versus Laiatu Latu, and urgency for Colts general manager Chris Ballard to win this year led to him aggressively fixing the cornerback room with Charvarius Ward and Xavien Howard now on the outside. The speed for Miami might end up being too much for a slower defense, but I’ll go with the home team as a tiebreaker here.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
CAR @ JAX
Sunday, September 7 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Carolina has one of the better offensive lines in the league, but left tackle Ikem Ekwonu looks highly unlikely following an appendectomy, and guards Damien Lewis (shoulder) and Robert Hunt (foot) were both limited in practice to begin the week. Jacksonville was already going to be a tough matchup for them with Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker on the edge, so it’ll be important for the Panthers to establish the ground game like they did in 2024 to help provide cleaner looks for Bryce Young. The Jags will also be trying to get the ground game going if Liam Coen’s time coordinating the Tampa Bay offense last year is any indication (185+ total yards for Bucky Irving in both games against Carolina), and the additions made by the Panthers on the defensive interior—Tershawn Wharton, Bobby Brown III, and rookie Cam Jackson—will immediately be put to the test by Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby. And of course, one of the weekend’s top storylines will be the usage of Travis Hunter, and I’m sure he’s eager to make an impact on both sides of the ball.
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars
LV @ NE
Sunday, September 7 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Patriots are a trendy playoff pick this season, but I seem to remember a similar sentiment last year—and we know how that turned out. While the team should eventually get back on the winning track under Mike Vrabel, there is more work to be done on the roster, and Drake Maye needs to make strides as a passer to match some of the flashes shown as a rookie. This week appears to be a favorable draw versus a Las Vegas defense that is unsettled at cornerback, but the Raiders are expected to play extremely hard under Pete Carroll, and the offense is in great hands with Chip Kelly brought in as offensive coordinator. I could see explosive rookie TreVeyon Henderson outperforming No. 6 overall pick Ashton Jeanty this weekend if New England can use the aggressiveness of Las Vegas to their advantage, but Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) being out for the Pats would make the No. 3 cornerback a major question mark behind Carlton Davis III and Marcus Jones—and one that Geno Smith and Kelly would know to attack.
Winner: Las Vegas Raiders
ARI @ NO
Sunday, September 7 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Arizona isn’t a team I’m picking to make the playoffs this year, but they were certainly among the options to garner consideration—so it’s a little strange that they’ve received zero buzz heading into Jonathan Gannon’s third season as head coach. Josh Simmons would have been my choice in the first round of April’s draft (giving them a long-term duo of Simmons and Paris Johnson Jr. at the tackle spots), but the Cardinals wanted to build out the defense, and hopefully defensive lineman Walter Nolen III (calf) can get healthy to make an impact this year. I’m more excited about the depth at cornerback, as Will Johnson (who wasn’t even a favorite of mine but still could prove to be a steal in Round 2) joins Max Melton and Garrett Williams as an impressive young trio—and the group runs six deep with Kei’Trel Clark, Denzel Burke, and Elijah Jones behind them. The Saints seem to have accomplished the goal of getting a bookend tackle duo with No. 9 overall pick Kelvin Banks Jr. and 2024 first-rounder Taliese Fuaga, but the overall infusion of youth hasn’t been there in recent years, and most would make the case in favor of them having the worst quarterback situation in the league.
Winner: Arizona Cardinals
PIT @ NYJ
Sunday, September 7 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Despite previously expressing his frustration about how the Jets’ new regime handled his release earlier this year, Aaron Rodgers has apparently not brought up the “revenge” aspect of the opener against his former team—but you can be sure there are very few games that have meant more to Rodgers in his illustrious career. The four-time NFL MVP has always played at his best when he has something to prove, and practice battles against the Jets could give him a better idea of how to attack Sauce Gardner and others in coverage. For the most part, I expect Pittsburgh to play through the backs and tight ends this week (keep an eye on Jonnu Smith being featured in his team debut) in a style that is the opposite of how Rodgers has operated throughout his career, so we’ll see how quickly things mesh. Justin Fields also comes into Week 1 with an axe to grind about being benched in favor of Russell Wilson last year, but did New York put enough around him to have success against a stout Pittsburgh defense? Based on how the Steelers have typically fared in containing Lamar Jackson as a runner, Fields may need to win with his arm versus perhaps the NFL’s best secondary.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
NYG @ WAS
Sunday, September 7 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
I would not be surprised at all if the Giants beat the Commanders this week after playing them tough in both matchups last year, and confidence could go a long way for a team—with “vibes” in New York clearly being high after an encouraging preseason. That said, Giants fans might have the biggest case of Stockholm syndrome in sports history based on how the perspective of the current regime has flipped from overwhelmingly negative, to now saying they need at least two more years in charge despite zero real games played since last year’s 3-14 finish. Maybe the team turning back to Mike Kafka as play-caller (as was the case in 2022) will lead to more wins, but New York has gone 9-25 over the past two seasons, and Daniel Jones might be in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year race based on the seasons 2024 departures Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney had after leaving the Giants. Again, I think New York can win on the road, but if they start 0-2 against Washington and Dallas, a primetime matchup against the Chiefs in Week 3 is my prediction for the launching point for Jaxson Dart.
Winner: Washington Commanders
TEN @ DEN
Sunday, September 7 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
Cameron Ward will be thrown straight into the fire by facing the Broncos on the road in his first career start, but the No. 1 overall pick does not lack for confidence—and the Titans have a quality supporting cast with two veteran wideouts in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett, a solid offensive line, and a good collection of role players (including fellow rookie Elic Ayomanor after the fourth-rounder earned a starting job out of camp). However, this is a matchup between a Tennessee team that clearly doesn’t believe they are a contender this year and a Denver squad with the highest of expectations under Sean Payton, so those internal beliefs could go a long way on the field. An inability to get the running game going to make things easier on Bo Nix is the biggest concern I have right now for the Broncos, but they have an emerging superstar at quarterback, a Super Bowl-winning head coach, and perhaps the best defense in the NFL.
Winner: Denver Broncos
SF @ SEA
Sunday, September 7 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
Brock Purdy has had Seattle’s number to begin his career (5-1 record), but the lone loss came last year in the second matchup against Mike Macdonald’s defense as injuries hit the 49ers—which is similar to how things look for the opener this season with Deebo Samuel Sr. essentially swapped out for George Kittle (who was out; Christian McCaffrey did play and handled 23 touches). I expect Purdy to take care of the ball and make the most of out the injuries around him by playing through McCaffrey and Kittle, but San Francisco won’t be at their best until Brandon Aiyuk (knee) is back next month, and Seattle could prove to be one of the NFL’s top defenses in 2025—especially if Byron Murphy II or Derick Hall takes a leap up front. Overall, the more I think about how Renardo Green and Deommodore Lenoir can match up with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp, the less confidence I have in picking Seattle; but I’ll stick with my original choice with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet leading the way in Sam Darnold’s first start on a new team.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
DET @ GB
Sunday, September 7 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
This is not to downplay the addition of Micah Parsons and how impactful he can be in Green Bay, but I’m stunned by the Packers being favored over the Lions in the NFC North and mildly surprised by them being 2.5-point favorites this weekend. Even with Wolf Sports being among the first to recognize how good of a coach Ben Johnson is, the personnel in Detroit is loaded enough that the coordinator doesn’t matter much (Johnson himself even said that), and Green Bay might not have the options at cornerback to match Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Last year, Jared Goff diced up Jeff Hafley’s defense by completing 18-of-22 passes in the rain and then had 283 yards and three touchdowns (one interception) in a 34-31 win for the rematch. On defense, the Lions will have D.J. Reed joining Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson as an extremely sticky cornerback group, and the Packers might need Romeo Doubs and first-round pick Matthew Golden to consistently create separation for them to match the increased expectations with a victory to begin 2025.
Winner: Detroit Lions
HOU @ LAR
Sunday, September 7 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
There are clear differences—most notably Sean McVay being an offensive-minded coach and DeMeco Ryans being a defensive-minded coach—but Houston and Los Angeles have a lot of overlapping characteristics in terms of how their rosters have been built with young stars, impact veterans, and pocket passers at quarterback. The flaws don’t line up with the Texans’ biggest issue being a remade offensive line (which could end up turning into a strength if the pieces gel) and the Rams being vulnerable at cornerback, so I’ll be watching how the Houston offensive line holds up for C.J. Stroud and whether LA can stop Nico Collins. I’m also curious how the Texans will try to match up with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua, as when Adams was with the Jets last year, he went for a 7/91/1 line against Houston on Halloween with Derek Stingley Jr. not being used in shadow coverage. The path to picking up a road win is Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. getting to Matthew Stafford, but the new core of Kyren Williams, Adams, and Nacua could prove too much on Sunday if Houston takes time to hit their stride offensively.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
BAL @ BUF
Sunday, September 7 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
It doesn’t get much better than a playoff rematch between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen as the two NFL MVP winners over the past two seasons—but they would both tell you the debate about the award is a media/fan creation more than anything else. More importantly, we’ll get our first look at the 2025 Ravens and the 2025 Bills, with each squad being hungrier than ever to reach the Super Bowl in a path that has been blocked by Kansas City in recent years. I much prefer the offseason Baltimore had by adding Jaire Alexander and first-round safety Malaki Starks, but homefield advantage could be big this week and in a potential January rematch—and the crowd will be rocking to kick off the final season at Highmark Stadium on Sunday Night Football. The way both Jackson and Allen have learned to take care of the ball at an extremely high level while still making heroic plays through the air and on the ground is remarkable, and I’ll give Buffalo the edge with Allen—who has the most total touchdowns through eight seasons in NFL history (262) despite not yet playing his eighth season—surely hearing some of the talk about his MVP not being deserved, which is ridiculous when he could have won multiple times by now.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
MIN @ CHI
Monday, September 8 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
The Ben Johnson era begins in Chicago on Monday night, and it will be exciting to see what kind of tricks he has up his sleeve in the lead role for an organization. As was the case under Dan Campbell in Detroit, I’d anticipate Johnson being borderline crazy when it comes to going for it on fourth down, and the playbook will be as creative as the head coach wants with Caleb Williams possessing the arm talent and athleticism to attack all over the field. I’m less certain about J.J. McCarthy under center for the Vikings, but the position he finds himself in is perfect with Kevin O’Connell as head coach, Justin Jefferson (and others) at wide receiver, a great offensive line, and what sounds like will be an improved ground game. Although the Bears might be a difficult matchup for McCarthy at first glance, the secondary will be playing more man coverage under Dennis Allen, so it’s possible the scheme change makes them easier to attack. Still, I like the Chicago offense to come out sharp after what was a challenging camp with Johnson pushing for perfection—starting 1-0 with a primetime victory.
Winner: Chicago Bears