Season: 92-42-1
LV (2-6) @ DEN (7-2)
Thursday, November 6 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
Bo Nix had another clutch performance in the fourth quarter last week as Denver rolled to their sixth victory in a row, and he now leads the NFL in game-winning drives (seven) since entering the league—including four already this season. The success of Nix has slowly started to turn with former coaches like Bruce Arians and Jay Gruden changing their opinion on him, but he’s still not getting close to the recognition he deserves; just this week, a mock draft from a supposedly reputable media outlet had the Broncos selecting a quarterback in the first round, which is laughable. The primetime matchup versus the Raiders will be a chance for Nix to further silence the critics, and a win for Denver would put them three wins up over Kansas City before a massive showdown in Week 11. Based on how Nix avoids sacks and didn’t back down from Maxx Crosby and an aggressive defense last year in two wins (34-18 and 29-19), I like the Broncos to keep rolling on Thursday Night Football.
Winner: Denver Broncos
ATL (3-5) @ IND (7-2)
Sunday, November 9 | 9:30 AT ET (Berlin) | NFL Network
Last week, I mentioned the Patriots passing on Jalon Walker with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and the rookie did his best to make it a game against the team that passed on him with 2.0 sacks and a forced fumble in the eventual 24-23 loss. For the Colts, they also had a tremendous outing from a top young pass rusher last week as Laiatu Latu exploded for 2.5 sacks—and last year’s No. 15 overall pick heating up combined with the team making a blockbuster trade for cornerback Sauce Gardner should make Indy extremely formidable in January. This week, defending the run will be key for both sides, and I expect Bijan Robinson will be fed with a far-too-low 11.7 carries per game and 37.0 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks since his 170-yard explosion versus Buffalo. In the passing game, Drake London dealing with Gardner should make Kyle Pitts Sr. more of a priority considering how much Indy has struggled defending tight ends over the past month, but Daniel Jones is due to bounce back for the Colts, and I trust the Indy coaching staff to have the team ready in Germany.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
NO (1-8) @ CAR (5-4)
Sunday, November 9 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
We shouldn’t give Carolina too much credit for finally turning back to Rico Dowdle as the offensive centerpiece when they were two weeks later than seemingly everyone else in realizing it should’ve been the case—but the 27-year-old has been sensational in three starts with 23 carries for 206 yards and a touchdown, 30 carries for 183 yards, and 25 carries for 130 yards and two touchdowns. The Panthers are 3-0 in those games, and the “chemistry” in terms of pacing and feel Dowdle has in the blocking scheme has essentially been perfect—which has him ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards (735) despite limited work for most of the season. New Orleans has played hard under Kellen Moore, but the first career start for Tyler Shough didn’t go well on either side of the ball, and trading away speedster Rashid Shaheed won’t make things any easier on offense. With Bryce Young gaining confidence amid a four-game winning streak for him, the Panthers are firmly in the playoff hunt and still have five divisional games to play.
Winner: Carolina Panthers
NYG (2-7) @ CHI (5-3)
Sunday, November 9 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Whether it’s coming from ownership or Joe Schoen himself, a couple of stories released over the past week appear to be setting the stage for New York to keep their general manager and fire Brian Daboll—which would be an insane scenario in my opinion. The Giants might be looking at the Bears keeping Ryan Poles before hiring Ben Johnson for a second-year quarterback in Caleb Williams as the blueprint for them, but there is no Johnson-level candidate (in terms of being an obvious home-run hire), and there is far more bad than good on the ledger for Schoen to give him another head coach hire. Frankly, the Giants having a bottom-10 run defense in all four years of the current regime is as much of a reason as any to clean house, and possible snow in the forecast this weekend at Soldier Field could be telling for how the rest of the season will go for New York; if the team gets run all over again by a Chicago offense that ranks second in the league in rushing (144.4 yards per game), things could spiral further.
Winner: Chicago Bears
JAX (5-3) @ HOU (3-5)
Sunday, November 9 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Jacksonville survived an overtime battle with the Raiders last week, and it was the second close win versus an AFC West opponent this year (the MNF victory over Kansas City being the other) where Trevor Lawrence making plays with his legs and scoring twice—including the game-winner—had a huge impact. Lawrence not having Travis Hunter (knee) and potentially being without Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) could lead to him being reliant on his legs again, but the Texans should be focused after DeMeco Ryans discussed a couple of breakdowns on the late scramble by Bo Nix last week (25 yards) that set up Denver’s game-winning field goal—and we already saw Houston’s defense hold the Jags in check earlier this year when they lost a slugfest, 17-10. The rematch coming in Houston might lead to Round 2 going in their favor, but Davis Mills is starting in place of C.J. Stroud (concussion), and he needs to get the ball out of his hands with Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker coming off the edge; if that happens, the Texans might be able to lean on their defense to keep their slim AFC South hopes alive.
Winner: Houston Texans
BUF (6-2) @ MIA (2-7)
Sunday, November 9 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Beating the Chiefs in January is what really matters, but Buffalo brought their A-game last week in the 28-21 victory—and the formula of featuring James Cook III and Dalton Kincaid being implemented was a great sign for their chances to eventually come out of the conference. I do wonder if Brandon Beane will regret not being more aggressive at the trade deadline with an outside weapon for Josh Allen still perhaps being the missing piece, and the Chiefs notably didn’t have Isiah Pacheco or Josh Simmons in a game where Patrick Mahomes had the lowest completion percentage of his career (44.1%)—which probably won’t happen if the two rivals meet again in January. In general, the Bills defense still needs to prove they can stop the run, so facing a rested De’Von Achane (5.9 yards per carry in five career matchups) will be a challenge this weekend, though they did do a nice job bottling him up as a receiver in the September meeting (seven receptions for 29 yards). Buffalo also needs to be wary of some possible tricks from Mike McDaniel as he coaches for his job down the stretch, but they should take care of business as nearly double-digit favorites.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
BAL (3-5) @ MIN (4-4)
Sunday, November 9 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Vikings going on the road to beat the Lions was probably the most surprising result of Week 9, and it was an effort powered by the Minnesota defense playing at the elite level we saw last season. Fortunately for Baltimore, the mobility of Lamar Jackson will help him avoid and escape pressure brought by Brian Flores, and his fluidity as an on-the-move passer allows him to capitalize on hitting open targets in space when blitzers don’t get home. Additionally, Derrick Henry feels due for a multi-touchdown game soon, and the six-man fronts that the Vikings like to use could work against them if Henry breaks through with a head of steam. On the other side of the ball, Kevin O’Connell said this week that the Ravens arguably have the best cover group in the NFL at cornerback, but the comment raised some alarm bells for me—almost as if he believes they’ll be no match for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Still, Baltimore has found their groove with back-to-back wins, and extra time to prepare could lead to more answers for Jackson and the defense being able to confuse J.J, McCarthy.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
CLE (2-6) @ NYJ (1-7)
Sunday, November 9 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Browns and Jets have both stockpiled draft capital for the next couple of years and might be “contending” for the same franchise quarterback, but as we’ve seen time and time again, a signal-caller going ahead of another doesn’t mean anything because most franchises don’t know how to evaluate the position. And even if they do, Cleveland and New York have both shown they don’t have the infrastructure in place for a young passer to have success with Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold becoming stars elsewhere as former top-three picks, so fans—as always—should want to win games rather than hoping for a better draft slot. I’m optimistic the Browns feel that way with Kevin Stefanski on the hot seat, and even after trading away Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, Aaron Glenn isn’t the type to not try to win every game. That said, trading away two star players might have a domino effect on the rest of the locker room for the Jets, and we’ll find out soon enough depending on how much luck they have stopping rookie runner Quinshon Judkins on Sunday.
Winner: Cleveland Browns
NE (7-2) @ TB (6-2)
Sunday, November 9 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Drake Maye has continued to launch downfield passes with tremendous effectiveness this season, but the flaws have been there as well with six sacks absorbed in back-to-back games—leading to him already matching the number of sacks he took as a rookie (34). While the mind of Josh McDaniels and a very favorable schedule have helped boost Maye’s confidence, he’s also been reckless with the ball with two interceptions and three fumbles over the past two weeks, and facing a Todd Bowles defense will be the biggest challenge of the season. If Maye is able to solve the Buccaneers—who are now healthier on the backend and had an extra week to prepare—it could be a sign that New England is a legitimate contender in the AFC, especially paired with how Mike Vrabel’s defense can stop the run (No. 1 in the NFL). If not, it might take another year adding pieces on offense to match the progress made on defense in 2025.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ARI (3-5) @ SEA (6-2)
Sunday, November 9 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
The Cardinals benching Kyler Murray in favor of Jacoby Brissett paid off last week with a 27-17 win over the Cowboys—and the team could have easily won all three of Brissett’s starts with blown leads versus the Colts and Packers last month. Seattle will be a much tougher matchup than Dallas was on Monday night, but the offense has been better with Brissett at the controls because he takes care of the ball and plays through Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride as designed. The question will be if more firepower is needed with an extremely challenging upcoming schedule (@ SEA, v SF, v JAX, @ TB, v LAR, @ HOU) as Arizona tries to fight back into the playoff conversation, and I expect points will need to be put up based on how Sam Darnold played last Sunday night. In the first meeting this year, the Cardinals did better than anyone has defending Jaxon Smith-Njigba (four receptions for 79 yards), but all the production came in the final 16 minutes with the Seahawks figuring out how to best attack with their superstar wideout—who will get more help in the form of Rashid Shaheed to prevent defenses from consistently putting a safety over the top.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
LAR (6-2) @ SF (6-3)
Sunday, November 9 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The first matchup between the Rams and 49ers was a showcase opportunity for Mac Jones in primetime—and he led a divisional upset by completing 33-of-49 passes for 342 yards and two touchdowns in the overtime victory. I would be floored if Los Angeles didn’t have a better defensive game plan in the rematch by being more aggressive in coverage after Jones picked them apart underneath in Week 5, but George Kittle wasn’t even there in the first meeting when LA had zero answers for Kyle Shanahan’s attack, and Christian McCaffrey has heated up as a runner since then with a couple of 100-yard games over the past three weeks. However, the Rams have been better on offense with 34+ points in back-to-back games, and a main reason for that has been Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams getting on the same page, which wasn’t quite the case in the first meeting with some chunk gains left on the field. Kyren Williams—who is always fired up against the Niners—being determined after the late fumble cost them in the first matchup is another factor to consider, and I’m leaning towards Los Angeles getting some revenge.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
DET (5-3) @ WAS (3-6)
Sunday, November 9 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The only major concern we had about Jayden Daniels coming out of LSU was his durability to hold up year after year taking punishment from NFL defenders—but the gruesome elbow injury suffered last week was entirely avoidable with the Commanders foolishly keeping him in the game and needlessly giving him designed runs in a game that was over. Daniels at least has a shot to return this season, but Marcus Mariota will need to keep the ship afloat until then, and the roster simply isn’t very good with no real difference-makers drafted by Adam Peters outside of last year’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. From Detroit’s perspective, they won’t be feeling sorry for an opponent that ended their season for what felt like the year for them, and there will be some added anger after falling to the Vikings in Week 9. Based on how Washington covered last week and all season—not to mention their overall lack of speed on defense to contain Jahmyr Gibbs—this feels like a spot where the Lions get back on track before a Sunday Night Football clash versus Philadelphia next week.
Winner: Detroit Lions
PIT (5-3) @ LAC (6-3)
Sunday, November 9 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Pittsburgh’s passing attack hasn’t clicked over the past couple of weeks with Aaron Rodgers getting pressured more and the downfield connection with DK Metcalf not being there—but the defense stepped up in a big way in last Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. Most notably, the stars played like stars with T.J. Watt (strip sack that he also recovered) and Joey Porter Jr. (who recorded an interception and his first career sack) leading the effort, and the run defense was outstanding by holding Jonathan Taylor to 14 carries for 45 scoreless yards. Los Angeles will be a different kind of challenge with a more aggressive passing offense, but Justin Herbert didn’t play well in the win over Tennessee last week, and he struggled last year versus Pittsburgh before leaving early due to an ankle injury (aggravated on a sack) in a 20-10 loss. Not that it’s surprising because good players are better with other good players around them, but Herbert has been less effective with Joe Alt (ankle) out, and that’s on top of Rashawn Slater (knee) already being done for the year—which could spell trouble with Watt and company on the edge.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
PHI (6-2) @ GB (5-2-1)
Sunday, November 10 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
The Packers began the 2024 season with a loss to the Eagles in Brazil, ended it with a playoff loss where Jordan Love threw three interceptions in Philadelphia, and then had another “loss” in the offseason when they were the main opponent of the “Tush Push” only to see it remain a part of the game—so Monday night should be a very emotional matchup between two NFC contenders. As someone facing Jalen Hurts in fantasy football this week, I’m worried about the Eagles basically “spamming” quarterback sneaks, but it’ll be interesting to see if Green Bay came up with some sort of way to combat the play (or at least attempt to combat it). My guess is that Matt LaFleur will be extremely vocal about making sure the play is officiating fairly, but the play of Love should be just as concerning for the Packers. I get the sense that LaFleur doesn’t quite trust his quarterback, and Tucker Kraft (knee) being done for the season vacates a central threat that was often designed into open space and then used his ability as a ball-carrier to do damage after the catch. Maybe first-round pick Matthew Golden will be more of a factor, but until Jayden Reed (collarbone) is back, I think the loss of Kraft will really be felt—while the Eagles are set to get A.J. Brown (hamstring) back with the passing attack flying high over the past couple of games.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles