Season: 113-50-1
BUF (7-3) @ HOU (5-5)
Thursday, November 20 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
Josh Allen struggled last year in a 23-20 loss to the Texans in which he completed just nine-of-30 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown—but Buffalo only lost on a last-second field goal (from 59 yards out) after being down 20-3 early in the third quarter. A lack of playmakers for Allen remains an issue despite his six-touchdown performance last week, and Keon Coleman catching a 49-yard touchdown in the 2024 matchup was key in the comeback, so others will need to step up with the second-year wideout set to be a healthy inactive for the second week in a row. On defense, the Bills will be facing Davis Mills with C.J. Stroud (concussion) still out, and although he’s played very well this season with a 2-0 record, Mills notably had the worst game of his career in a 40-0 loss to Buffalo in 2021—with Sean McDermott’s unit holding him to 87 passing yards and getting four interceptions on 21 attempts. The run defense is the concern tonight, but Allen should be motivated after DeMeco Ryans called Jordan Love the best quarterback they faced last year in what seemed like a veiled shot at the eventual NFL MVP for whatever reason.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
NYJ (2-8) @ BAL (5-5)
Sunday, November 23 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
There has been some talk about Derrick Henry not being as good this season, but he’s right in line with his career yards-per-carry average (4.9)—and he’s been dominant when fed with 109.8 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per attempt in six games with 15+ carries. New York has shown some improvement under Aaron Glenn (even after trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams), but they have a bottom-10 run defense (130.9 yards per game allowed) and have surrendered 30.3 points per game on the road this season. I also don’t think they’ll have answers for Zay Flowers with Gardner gone, and it’ll be a tall task for Tyrod Taylor—now under center in place of Justin Fields after the franchise paid him $30 million guaranteed for just nine starts—to outduel Lamar Jackson considering all the mixed-and-matched pieces for the Jets at wide receiver. Jackson now dealing with an ankle injury after missing time with a hamstring injury and being listed on the injury report with a knee injury last week is something to monitor, but the Ravens should keep rolling at home if they don’t look ahead to the Thanksgiving Night showdown versus Cincinnati.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
PIT (6-4) @ CHI (7-3)
Sunday, November 23 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Aaron Rodgers (wrist) is pushing to play this week versus a Chicago team that he—as stated himself a few years ago—basically owns with a 24-5 career record and 64:10 touchdown-interception ratio, but the more likely scenario seems to be Mason Rudolph drawing the start. If that’s the case, Pittsburgh will still be in very good hands on offense with Rudolph having gone 8-4-1 in 13 starts with the team, and the Bears can be vulnerable to big plays with the fourth-most passing yards per attempt allowed in the league (7.8). Whether it’s Rudolph or Rodgers at quarterback, I think DK Metcalf could have a huge game, and both signal-callers do a nice job taking care of the ball—which will be key with Chicago’s ability to generate takeaways (with an NFL-high 15 interceptions) masking some of their issues. Defensively, it’ll be interesting to see if the Steelers use T.J. Watt more on the right side of the formation to avoid Darnell Wright, but it’s something he doesn’t like doing, so Nick Herbig (who quietly has 6.5 sacks on the season) could be the X-factor in getting to Caleb Williams.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
NE (9-2) @ CIN (3-7)
Sunday, November 23 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Joe Burrow (toe) returning to a full practice this week could have him in line to start on Sunday—which would provide a major spark to a team hoping to make a run in the AFC North. Cincinnati gets a very winnable stretch to close the season starting in Week 16 (@ MIA, v ARI, v CLE), but I’m sure Burrow is looking at the games before that (v NE, @ BAL, @ BUF, v BAL) and knows they need to go 3-1 over this upcoming stretch to have a shot in the division. New England being a middle-of-the-road pass rush and not having Milton Williams (ankle) might lead to Burrow negotiating his way onto the field, but Joe Flacco hasn’t been the issue—and it might not matter much if the Bengals don’t suddenly improve on defense. Plus, Ja’Marr Chase’s one-game suspension will allow the Patriots to focus on stopping Tee Higgins, and the box could be heavier for Chase Brown versus the No. 1 run defense in the league (84.7 yards per game allowed). All that said, I’m admittedly pulling for Cincinnati to make things more interesting on Thanksgiving and down the stretch, and maybe their desperation will be enough at home if Burrow is back.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
NYG (2-9) @ DET (6-4)
Sunday, November 23 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Lions had a disappointing showing last Sunday night with a 16-9 loss to the Eagles, but only losing by one possession with Jared Goff completing a career-low 37.8% of his passes, the team not converting any of their five attempts on fourth down, and the defense (which played great) not having D.J. Reed (hamstring), Terrion Arnold (concussion), or Kerby Joseph (knee) at least shows they can compete with Philadelphia if they get a rematch in January. For that to happen, though, Detroit needs to start rattling off wins, and they must take advantage of a rare homestand with three games in 12 days (v NYG, v GB, v DAL). Jaxson Dart (concussion) should be back for the Giants on Sunday and can present problems for the Lions as a runner, but defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard probably has the confidence to leave his cornerbacks on an island (as he’s often done) to focus on stopping the run. In general, I think we’ll see an offensive explosion for Detroit and more evidence that New York’s roster is overmatched and overrated—so perhaps a blowout would lead to ownership thinking more seriously about a change in the front office if the Giants are the only team eliminated from playoff contention before Thanksgiving (which can be the case with a loss).
Winner: Detroit Lions
MIN (4-6) @ GB (6-3-1)
Sunday, November 23 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Vikings might try to spin the struggles of J.J. McCarthy as him being a developing quarterback, and as stated last week, it’d be unfair to write off a player so early in his career. At the same time, the franchise will have a difficult decision to make in the offseason if improvements aren’t made over the final seven games—and we haven’t yet seen the pure quarterback ability to believe he will turn into a high-end starter (like we saw from Josh Allen and Bo Nix early on when the passing numbers weren’t there). Minnesota is balancing the quarterback situation with being a team that expected to compete for a championship (remember, they went 14-3 last year), and frustrations will continue to boil for Justin Jefferson and others if they don’t move the ball after sweeping Green Bay in 2024. One thing that you can’t take away from McCarthy is that he’s made clutch plays and could be 3-0 in the division if not for a last-second game-winning field goal by the Bears last week, but I like the Packers at home if Jordan Love takes care of the ball.
Winner: Green Bay Packers
IND (8-2) @ KC (5-5)
Sunday, November 23 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
It almost doesn’t seem real that Kansas City is now 5-5 and fighting for their playoff lives with a challenging schedule through the middle of December (v IND, @ DAL, v HOU, v LAC)—but the worst-case scenario for the rest of the AFC would be Andy Reid’s squad catching fire to sneak into the postseason being one of those white-hot lower seeds that it feels like haven’t emerged in a while. The Chiefs returning home (where they are 4-1 with their only loss being a Super Bowl LIX rematch) will help, and there were downfield shots to be had with Josh Simmons returning to the lineup last week and giving Patrick Mahomes more time to throw deep; unfortunately for Kansas City, the downfield accuracy for Mahomes has been inconsistent for years now, and the Colts will have their potentially elite cornerback trio on the field together for the first time as Charvarius Ward Sr. (concussion) returns to pair with Sauce Gardner and Kenny Moore II. However, I’d bet on the Chiefs—with their backs against the wall like never before—having their championship DNA come through to get Step 1 complete in their quest to make a run into the postseason.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
SEA (7-3) @ TEN (1-9)
Sunday, November 23 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
There is no doubt that last week was disappointing for Seattle, but the defense was outstanding by holding the Rams to 249 total yards in the 21-19 loss—with the difference being four interceptions by Sam Darnold and a lack of success in scoring territory. This week, the Titans will be a much “easier” opponent for the Seahawks, and it could be a spot where the offense tries to rebuild Darnold’s confidence with two shaky outings in a row; that’s especially important with a matchup versus the Vikings next weekend, as it’s possible Darnold will be pressing a bit in trying to have a big day against his former team. The path to reunlocking the version of Darnold we saw in Washington to begin November is establishing the run with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet—which will only create more space for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Rashid Shaheed to attack. I don’t see Tennessee being able to keep up with Cameron Ward not being kept clean (NFL-high 41 sacks allowed) and Calvin Ridley (fibula) done for the season to sap the limited firepower the No. 1 overall pick has at his disposal.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
JAX (6-4) @ ARI (3-7)
Sunday, November 23 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
Jacksonville playing through the running backs seems closer to what Liam Coen envisioned for his offense after being hired, and last week’s win over the Chargers saw them feed Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie Bhayshul Tuten with a combined 34 carries for 147 yards and three touchdowns—compared to just 22 pass attempts for Trevor Lawrence. Arizona being ripped by running backs for Seattle and San Francisco over the past two weeks should lead to the backfield being the focus again, but the Jaguars probably need more out of Trevor Lawrence to be a legitimate threat in January (if they make it)—and we’ll see if Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) returns to boost the passing attack. On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville needs to prove they can stop tight ends with Trey McBride sure to be the focal point for the Cardinals, and their linebackers are too athletic for the defense to be torched like they’ve been by the position (including earlier this month when Brock Bowers went for a 12/127/3 line).
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars
CLE (2-8) @ LV (2-8)
Sunday, November 23 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
Shedeur Sanders is set to make his first career start this weekend with Dillon Gabriel (concussion) out, and it ironically comes against a Las Vegas team that felt like one of his top potential landing spots in the 2025 NFL Draft. Of course, that didn’t happen with Sanders falling to the fifth round, but the players drafted instead haven’t exactly lit the world on fire—so Cleveland might have the advantage on both sides of the ball for a change. To come away with a win in his first career start, Shedeur needs to get rid of the ball quicker with Maxx Crosby coming after him, and I think we’ll see more snaps from under center to create traditional play-action opportunities (compared to more of a quick-strike spread attack with Gabriel at quarterback). Either way, the Browns need to play through Quinshon Judkins, and the Raiders feel like a team on the verge of completely breaking with Pete Carroll sounding lost last Monday night during his halftime interview when losing to the Cowboys—and I just hope a bad draft and poor handling of the quarterback situation doesn’t lead to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly being scapegoated.
Winner: Cleveland Browns
PHI (8-2) @ DAL (4-5-1)
Sunday, November 23 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The first matchup between the Eagles and Cowboys was a thriller to open the 2025 season, and the rematch will be in Dallas—where Dak Prescott has won five games in a row against his top rival with the offense putting up an eye-popping 36.0 points per game. Furthermore, CeeDee Lamb will come into Sunday with extra motivation after missed opportunities in Week 1 (which he notably took responsibility for), and he’s roasted Philadelphia at AT&T Stadium with Dak under center in the past; and George Pickens playing like he has this season will only make it more difficult to contain Lamb. The status of the Philly passing attack is much more volatile with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith going from big games to quiet games with everyone expressing frustration but nothing really changing—though it’s worth noting that the efficiency for Smith (career-high 9.9 yards per target) has still been there while Brown (career-low 7.0 yards per target) has fallen off outside of a couple of huge games. The Cowboys are expecting to have better luck stopping the run this season and beyond by adding Quinnen Williams up front with Kenny Clark and Osa Odighizuwa, but I don’t think shutting down Ashton Jeanty behind a league-worst offensive line will automatically lead to stopping Saquon Barkley—who could also do damage on throws in the flat that were available last week for the Raiders. I’m leaning towards the Eagles in another down-to-the-wire finish.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
ATL (3-7) @ NO (2-8)
Sunday, November 23 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
We’ll see how Kirk Cousins fares with a seven-game run to start in place of Michael Penix Jr. (knee) down the stretch, but it’ll be a tough sell to say the Falcons shouldn’t look for new leadership when it appears heavy investments the current regime made at the most important position in sports ($160 million for Cousins and the No. 8 overall pick on Penix) haven’t panned out. As stated in the past, Atlanta did do a good job acquiring a bunch of young talent on defense, but it doesn’t matter much if they are still allowing 30+ points—which has been the case in three of their four losses during the current 0-4 stretch. To make matters worse, the Falcons’ 2026 first-round pick is headed to the Rams, so results need to start coming with a couple of winnable games (@ NO, @ NYJ) to at least get on the fringes of Wild Card contention. The spark provided by Tyler Shough in two starts for the Saints has been encouraging, but look for Jalon Walker to keep his NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year push going as he faces fellow rookie Kelvin Banks Jr.—who Walker got the better of last year in a matchup between Georgia and Texas.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
TB (6-4) @ LAR (8-2)
Sunday, November 23 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Tampa Bay has hit a rough patch since a 5-1 start with injuries striking on both sides of the ball, and it sounds like the offense could again be without Bucky Irving (shoulder/toe) and Chris Godwin Jr. (fibula) on Sunday night—with Mike Evans (collarbone) certainly out. The struggles for the Bucs have come with star rookie Emeka Egbuka not being as impactful (5.8 yards per target over the past four games after 11.2 yards per target across his first six games), but Sean Tucker stepping up at running back with 140 total yards and three total touchdowns last week gave Tampa Bay needed balance to have a shot this weekend in Los Angeles. Baker Mayfield will need to be wary of Kamren Kinchens (two interceptions last week), but the larger concern for the Bucs on the other side of the ball with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams getting loose like a bunch of Buffalo wide receivers did last week; and Matthew Stafford won’t extend plays like Josh Allen, but he’s thrown for 340+ yards and multiple scores in two of the past three matchups versus Todd Bowles (including playoffs).
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
CAR (6-5) @ SF (7-4)
Monday, November 24 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN
I don’t know why the Panthers are so delayed in making changes that should be obvious (feeding Rico Dowdle being the other), but they finally used Tetairoa McMillan more creatively last week with increased snaps in the slot—boosting the passing attack in a career day for Bryce Young (448 yards and three touchdowns) to beat the Falcons in overtime. On Monday night, Carolina can make a massive statement with their lone primetime opportunity this year (barring a game being flexed in) by beating a fellow playoff contender in the 49ers, and Young should have success with Robert Saleh’s defense not getting after the passer this year (NFL-low 12 sacks)—which has put more pressure on the coverage (21:3 touchdown-interception ratio allowed). Fortunately for the Niners, the offense didn’t slow down at all with Brock Purdy back last week, and Christian McCaffrey will be eager to put on a show as he faces his former team for the first time. If the Panthers want to show they are a real player in the conference, they need to prevent McCaffrey from going off and keep it close enough to give Young at shot in the fourth quarter.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers