Season: 162-80-1
HOU (10-5) @ LAC (11-4)
Saturday, December 27 | 4:30 PM ET | NFL Network
The results over the past couple of weeks haven’t been ideal for getting Week 18 filled with a bunch of important games, and there is a chance every team in the playoff field is known aside from the NFC South by Saturday night if the Texans win (knocking out the Colts) and the Ravens lose (putting in the Steelers). I don’t know how Justin Herbert has suddenly emerged in the MVP race for beating a sub-par Dallas defense, but he needs to play a lot better than he did in the playoff loss to Houston last season—when he had four interceptions, was sacked four times, and completed 43.8% of his passes. The Chargers are even worse in pass protection than they were back in January, so creating balance with Omarion Hampton (coming off one of his best games with 95 total yards and a touchdown) is key to keep Herbert upright. On the other side of the ball, the concern is Nico Collins dominating like he did last postseason in the 32-12 win (7/122/1), and Woody Marks (ankle) is back to boost the running game. We’ll have to keep an eye on the status of Teair Tart (groin) because of how important he is in stopping the run, but Los Angeles winning on the edge will determine if they can set up a first-place battle versus Denver for the AFC West crown.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
BAL (7-8) @ GB (9-5-1)
Saturday, December 27 | 8:00 PM ET | Peacock
Baltimore going away from Derrick Henry last Sunday night was inexcusable, and now the team will likely end up wasting a year of the monster runner’s prime—with a loss or a Pittsburgh win (versus Cleveland) ending their season. In fairness to a coaching staff that is catching a lot of heat, Lamar Jackson (back) has been very unreliable, and it almost seems like the season ended for them after the blown lead to the Bills in Week 1. Still, the formula to beat the Packers is simple with King Henry needing to be fed, and that’s what worked when Tyler Huntley was under center in the win over Chicago a couple of months ago. Defensively, I’m curious about how the Ravens will match up with Jayden Reed in the slot, but Chidobe Awuzie (foot) being back to kick Marlon Humphrey inside should help after the group struggled to cover late in the loss to New England. Also, with a playoff spot now locked up for the Packers due to Detroit losing on Christmas, they might ease up on Josh Jacobs (knee)—which would make the Packers much easier to defend. Assuming Henry gets the touches that he should, I like the Ravens to extend their season for at least another day.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
SEA (12-3) @ CAR (8-7)
Sunday, December 28 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Sam Darnold and the Seahawks completely flipped the narrative about them in big games by overcoming a 30-14 deficit to beat the Rams last Thursday night—and now they sit atop the NFC with two weeks to go. Carolina also had a statement game last week by defeating the Bucs to take first place in the NFC South with a chance to win it this weekend, but most would agree the rosters here would slant heavily in favor of Seattle. With that in mind, the Panthers must find a way to get Rico Dowdle going again (45.3 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry over his past six outings), and Robert Hunt (biceps) returning to practice for the first time since September could be a huge addition for them either this week or next. However, Seattle is 13-2 on the road under Mike Macdonald, and their aggressive defense might cause problems for Bryce Young with the highlight go-ahead touchdown pass last week versus Tampa Bay sure to be a point of emphasis when it comes to rushing with discipline to keep the former No. 1 overall pick from being an out-of-structure playmaker.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
ARI (3-12) @ CIN (5-10)
Sunday, December 28 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Last week was a glimpse of what could have been for the Bengals this year with a 45-21 win over the Dolphins, and it was a complete turnaround from the season-ending shutout loss to Baltimore in Week 15. That said, the offense has rarely been the issue with 31+ points in four of the past five starts for Joe Burrow—and there is no reason Cincinnati can’t contend in 2026 with the Steelers possibly seeking a quarterback (if Aaron Rodgers retires), the Ravens in some turmoil despite a strong roster, and the Browns potentially hitting the reset button. The path to contention is a lot tougher for Arizona with the NFC West foes all seemingly on the rise, but one great offseason can always lead to a quick, lasting turnaround; the problem is there are too many evaluators who can’t identify stars in the draft or bargains in free agency (and that’s not to signal out Arizona, but they do need to be better). I’d expect a blow-up game for Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday with zero touchdowns since Week 7.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
PIT (9-6) @ CLE (3-12)
Sunday, December 28 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Questionable officiating at the end helped their cause, but the Steelers arguably had one of the most impressive wins of the season last week by beating the Lions at Ford Field—particularly based on how they did it with Jaylen Warren (151 total yards and two touchdowns) and Kenneth Gainwell (128 total yards and a touchdown) going off. While there are still issues in coverage behind Joey Porter Jr., we should give Asante Samuel Jr. (three touchdowns allowed in four games) time to get back into form and fully gel with the rest of the defense, and Adoree’ Jackson’s improved play with the Eagles since the start of the season is something to point to. Plus, it’ll be a lot easier on the backend when T.J. Watt (lung) is back in the lineup, and this week won’t be the toughest test with Cleveland losing Quinshon Judkins (fibula/ankle)—putting more pressure on Shedeur Sanders to move the ball through the air. If the Steelers can keep should-be favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Harold Fannin Jr. from going off (7/81 on 10 targets in the first meeting) or he’s out due to a groin injury, they should extend their December record to 4-0.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
JAX (11-4) @ IND (8-7)
Sunday, December 28 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Philip Rivers was outstanding in the Monday night loss to San Francisco, and it’s a shame the Indianapolis defense couldn’t get a stop to now put the team on the brink of elimination. Starting with the Chargers beating the Texans on Saturday, a bunch of help will be needed for the Colts to get into the postseason with a 2-0 finish (they’ll face Houston in Week 18) alone not being enough, and I think all non-Texans fans should be pulling for Rivers at least have a meaningful game to conclude his career. Unfortunately, the Jaguars are rolling with six consecutive wins and Trevor Lawrence being lights out thus far in December (10:0 touchdown-interception ratio and two more scores on the ground), but it’s the Jacksonville defense that might end Indy’s season if Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker get to the 44-year-old passer. Based on the offensive talent for the Jaguars and how lost the Colts looked in coverage last week, the story for Rivers could end this weekend.
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars
TB (7-8) @ MIA (6-9)
Sunday, December 28 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Miami played the Bengals close early on last week with a 14-10 lead late in the first half, but a touchdown allowed to a running back on four consecutive drives (other than the final possession of the second quarter, which lasted one play) turned the game into a lopsided affair. In general, the Dolphins being out of contention makes them less dangerous of an opponent with De’Von Achane not being totally fed and Mike McDaniel perhaps holding some things back offensively—but reports about the head coach being safe don’t feel entirely secure if the season concludes with more of what we saw in Week 16. Of course, the Bucs haven’t lit the world on fire with a 1-6 record since the start of November, and the franchise could have a difficult decision to make this offseason with Baker Mayfield up for an extension entering the final year of his deal; if they don’t believe he can get them a championship, it’d make sense to see what the trade market might look like in an offseason that appears short on signal-callers (though obviously the Bucs would need to “hit” on whoever their target might be).
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NE (12-3) @ NYJ (3-12)
Sunday, December 28 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
I didn’t think “tanking” would be something Aaron Glenn subscribed to, but it sure feels like the Jets have been less competitive this month with losses of 24, 28, and 23 points—with undrafted rookie Brady Cook absorbing 17 sacks and throwing six interceptions in not even three full games. When hired, Glenn said “every decision we make is to win, and to win now,” so that’s tough to balance with what we’ve seen this month (and calls into question who is making the decisions). The motivation this week would be to play spoiler versus New England as they look to clinch the AFC East (a win combined with a Buffalo loss), and maybe the Patriots not having Kayshon Boutte (concussion), Mack Hollins (abdomen), and potentially DeMario Douglas (hamstring) will get Drake Maye off track. I doubt that’ll be the case, though, and even if it were, the New England defense should get to Cook—who doesn’t have much of a shot to be successful considering his supporting cast.
Winner: New England Patriots
NO (5-10) @ TEN (3-12)
Sunday, December 28 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Second-round pick Tyler Shough has exceeded expectations and is getting deserved credit for how he’s played to begin his career, but the New Orleans defense has been overlooked by surrendering just 13.6 points per game in seven starts for the rookie (4-3 record). Questions remain about the overall talent level for the Saints, but another offseason with Kellen Moore running the offense and Brandon Staley running the defense will help—and both sides of the ball will have a better idea of what they’re seeking via free agency and the draft. As New Orleans tries to extend their winning streak to four games, Tennessee struggling in coverage until the decisive win over the Chiefs last weekend should lead to Shough having another solid outing, and it was awesome to see Taysom Hill featured in Week 16 for what sounded like could be his final career game at the Superdome. Progress shown by Cameron Ward should lead to a close one if he keeps it up, but I would give the edge to the Saints.
Winner: New Orleans Saints
NYG (2-13) @ LV (2-13)
Sunday, December 28 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
Giants-Raiders unironically is a very important game with the loser having an excellent chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft—and we’ve seen end-of-season wins for New York in back-to-back years keep them from the opportunity to select Drake Maye and Cameron Ward. But draft slot doesn’t mean a thing if you can’t effectively evaluate, and the Giants passing on Bo Nix in 2024 is one of many mistakes they’ve made under the current regime. On the field, players don’t care where the suits in the organization are picking a few months from now, and both sides have players (namely Jaxson Dart and Maxx Crosby) who have expressed how much they hate losing—so it’s completely understandable for Crosby to have left the building when informed that he won’t play on Sunday (and a flat-out embarrassing look for the organization). Say what you want about the Giants, but they are at least trying to win, so Dart not having to worry about Crosby chasing him and the defense not having to game plan for Brock Bowers (knee) should be enough if the Big Blue pass rush can win versus a league-worst offensive line.
Winner: New York Giants
PHI (10-5) @ BUF (11-4)
Sunday, December 28 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The Eagles defeated the Bills in an overtime classic a couple of years ago with Jalen Hurts scoring a 12-yard rushing touchdown to win it—but both quarterbacks were tremendous with Josh Allen (420 total yards and four total touchdowns) not getting enough support to outduel Hurts (265 total yards and five total touchdowns). The story has been more of the same for Allen over the past two seasons with the receiver room almost looking like it did at the start of his career, but James Cook III can at least balance things out when Buffalo plays through him. This week, while Nakobe Dean (hamstring) not playing should make Philadelphia easier to run on, I’m sure we’ll see a very determined Jordan Davis after the superstar defender was snubbed from a Pro Bowl selection—and Allen dealing with a foot injury might make him less dangerous extending plays (both as a passer and runner). For what should be another classic if both teams are at their best, I’m hesitantly leaning towards the Bills in the final game at Highmark Stadium,
Winner: Buffalo Bills
CHI (11-4) @ SF (11-4)
Sunday, December 28 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
The Bears and 49ers both have the No. 1 seed in their sights, so the penultimate Sunday Night Football game of the season carries plenty of significance despite all 14 playoff spots potentially being decided before kickoff. The status of George Kittle (ankle) is the one to watch here, but with the way Brock Purdy is seeing the field and based on how Kyle Shanahan has been in a groove dialing things up, there is less to worry about when it comes to the supporting cast. I know the coaching staff is different, but last December, Purdy completed 20-of-25 passes for 325 yards and two touchdowns in a blowout win over Chicago—and he’s thrown for exactly 295 yards (with eight combined passing touchdowns) in each of the past two games. Caleb Williams hasn’t been quite as hot, but other than the loss to Green Bay in the first meeting with the game-ending interception, he has been cold when it’s mattered most (NFL-high six game-winning drives this season). This is a complete toss up and Renardo Green (neck) returning for San Francisco might be enough to slow down Ben Johnson’s offense, but we know emerging rookie Luther Burden III (ankle) will be back to pair with DJ Moore.
Winner: Chicago Bears
LAR (11-4) @ ATL (6-9)
Monday, December 29 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN
The Rams were a team that many thought (and maybe still do think) was the best in football as we hit the middle of December, but they suddenly sit as the No. 5 seed in the conference after it appeared to be smooth sailing with the 30-14 lead over Seattle last Thursday night. While it’s difficult to find many complaints about the offense when they scored 37 points, Davante Adams (hamstring) being out clearly impacted the attack in scoring territory—including settling for field goals early on and going one-for-four overall in their first four trips in the red zone; that ended up being just enough to keep Seattle in the game. There will be talk of Atlanta badly wanting a win to keep their draft picked owed to LA from being too high, but I doubt that will be on the mind of Kirk Cousins and others. Instead, the Falcons can be a threat simply because Cousins is playing very well on an offense with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts Sr., and it’s not a situation where Atlanta was recently eliminated and might be feeling down heading into a matchup versus a top opponent. If Pitts is featured and the young pass rushers (including James Pearce Jr., who was the target when giving up their 2026 first-round pick to the Rams) can get to Matthew Stafford, an upset wouldn’t be shocking.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams