Season: 160-79-1
DAL (6-8-1) @ WAS (4-11)
Thursday, December 25 | 1:00 PM ET | Netflix
Three backup quarterbacks in action and four teams out of contention makes for a disappointing Christmas Day slate compared to preseason expectations, but the first game will still be a cool opportunity for journeyman Josh Johnson—who has played for a quarter of the league—to start on the holiday. I’m just not sure Washington will have an answer for CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens in coverage to give him much of a chance, and Quinnen Williams (neck) being back would make Dallas a lot tougher to run on for Chris Rodriguez and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. In general, the Cowboys being out of playoff contention doesn’t take away from the talent level for them, and they mostly need time for everything to come together; I don’t think the same is true for the Commanders with last year’s Cinderella run leading to them trading away draft picks—and it’s somewhat reminiscent of the Giants back in 2022 when they made the playoffs and misevaluated where the roster was at. If Dak Prescott takes care of the ball, Washington could have a very difficult time keeping up.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
DET (8-7) @ MIN (7-8)
Thursday, December 25 | 4:30 PM ET | Netflix
It feels like the Lions could have a handful of additional wins from the past couple of years with how much officiating has gone against them, and now their season is on the line with two wins combined with two losses for the Packers needed to make the playoffs. Earlier this year, the Minnesota defense was able to get to Jared Goff for five sacks, and the running game was shut down (20 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown)—so Detroit was dominated up front, which was also the case last week in the loss to Pittsburgh. Because of that, I would expect a spirited effort from Dan Campbell’s squad this evening, and J.J. McCarthy (hand) being out puts undrafted rookie Max Brosmer in the spotlight again after he struggled with four interceptions versus Seattle in a Week 13 shutout. If the Lions want to keep their season alive, I think it would be wise to give David Montgomery more touches to add more balance on offense—as the team being 2-5 when “Knuckles” gets fewer than nine carries isn’t a coincidence.
Winner: Detroit Lions
DEN (12-3) @ KC (6-9)
Thursday, December 25 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
Denver is coming off a 34-20 loss to the Jaguars, but Bo Nix played very well—and the defense underperforming too often is the bigger concern for January in my opinion. Of course, getting to face a Kansas City team that doesn’t have Patrick Mahomes (knee) and was just handled by the Titans should help the Broncos get on track, but don’t be surprised if the recently signed Shane Buechele sees action under center depending on how Chris Oladokun performs early on. Remember, Nix could easily be 3-0 versus the Chiefs to begin his career if not for a blocked field goal last year in the first meeting, and this Christmas Night matchup could play out similarly to the 2024 season finale when he lit up the KC backups (26-of-29 for 321 yards and four touchdowns, plus seven carries for 47 yards)—especially with Trent McDuffie (knee) and Jaylen Watson (groin) out again. The absence of Dre Greenlaw (hamstring) could be an issue against Travis Kelce, but the Broncos should take care of business to set up a possible first-place battle with the Chargers in Week 18.
Winner: Denver Broncos