Season: 169-86-1
CAR (8-8) @ TB (7-9)
Saturday, January 3 | 4:30 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
The NFC South is somewhat on the line (the Buccaneers need help with an Atlanta loss on Sunday) to begin Week 18, and the matchup should be a close one like it was a few days before Christmas when Carolina won, 23-20, on a late field goal. Most of the heavy lifting for the Panthers came from Bryce Young (21-of-32 for 191 yards and two touchdowns) as the running game was contained (including nine carries for 29 yards from Rico Dowdle), so Tampa Bay being without Jamel Dean (shoulder) is a huge loss—though I’m excited to see how rookie Benjamin Morrison fares in such an important spot (and he’s started in each of the past two games after a month out of the lineup). Historically, the Bucs have gotten the better of Young with an 0-4 record for the former No. 1 pick before the Week 16 win, but Saturday will come down to whether Baker Mayfield can finally snap out of his struggles; it won’t be easy with Carolina having a stout cornerback duo with Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, but I’ll lean towards the overall roster advantage for Tampa Bay giving them the win and waiting to see the result of Saints-Falcons.
Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
SEA (13-3) @ SF (12-4)
Saturday, January 3 | 8:00 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
Many are disappointed that Seahawks-49ers isn’t on Sunday Night Football, but it’s obviously still a game with massive implications—as the winner will earn homefield advantage in the NFC. For the Niners, a victory would mean never needing to hit the road again if they make a run with Super Bowl LX being in San Francisco, and we can’t forget about Fred Warner (ankle) aiming to return this month. The concern for this week and into the postseason is a lack of pass rush, but Brock Purdy has been on a tear with back-to-back five-touchdown games, and he’s gone 5-1 versus Seattle in his career. However, the success hasn’t been the same versus Mike Macdonald’s defense with a 3:3 touchdown-interception ratio and 1-1 record over the past two meetings in particular, so having George Kittle (ankle) back will at least provide plenty of firepower. On the other side of the ball, the return of Renardo Green (neck) shouldn’t go overlooked, and San Francisco will have two cornerbacks (Green and Deommodore Lenoir) who can make things tough on Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Maybe they will be a bit drained with back-to-back primetime games, but I like the Niners as surprising home underdogs.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers
NO (6-10) @ ATL (7-9)
Sunday, January 4 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Again, this will be an extremely important game if the Bucs win on Saturday evening, and they’d need the Saints—winners of four in a row—to stay hot to give Tampa Bay the tiebreaker over Carolina for the division crown. New Orleans doesn’t care about that, but it would be good momentum to carry a winning streak into next season and to only lose the NFC South by a game (with three teams tied at 8-9) in a year where they weren’t expected to compete; additionally, another strong performance by Tyler Shough could lock up NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (though Harold Fannin Jr. would be my pick). In the first meeting this season, Shough was sacked five times and averaged a season-low 5.7 yards per attempt (out of his eight starts), so the Saints need to have a better plan versus Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. after the rookie duo combined for 2.5 sacks in Round 1. Not needing to cover Chris Olave (who thankfully caught a blood clot early but will be out this week) and all the impressive young pieces on the Atlanta defense could be enough to negate the predicted Panthers-Buccaneers result and get Carolina into the postseason at 8-9.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
CLE (4-12) @ CIN (6-10)
Sunday, January 4 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Other than the AFC South and potentially the NFC South, the biggest storyline of the early slate on Sunday is probably Myles Garrett trying to break the single-season sack record—and you could sense his frustration last week based on how Pittsburgh played him (despite leading to a win for the Browns). In his career, Garrett has recorded at least a full sack in 11-of-13 games versus the Bengals, so it’ll be interesting to see if Joe Burrow is worried about getting the ball out of his hands like Aaron Rodgers was; because Cincinnati has a much more wideout-centric passing attack, it could be difficult to avoid a takedown. For the Cleveland offense, Shedeur Sanders made enough throws last week to pull off the upset, and he showed progress in avoiding sacks with the two by Pittsburgh leading to just two yards lost—which kept the Browns in favorable field position. I also like that Sanders has been willing to take off when a rushing lane is there, and there are enough flashes in a poor situation to be encouraged about moving into 2026.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
IND (8-8) @ HOU (11-5)
Sunday, January 4 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Tip of the cap to Philip Rivers for a remarkable career, and he clearly showed he can still play—as the odds were firmly against the Colts due to a rough schedule by facing three teams who still have a chance to be a No. 1 seed in his three starts (@ SEA, v SF, v JAX). If there was anyone doubting Rivers as a Hall of Fame quarterback (they shouldn’t have been), the epilogue to his playing days will only boost his now delayed candidacy. Indianapolis is a very intriguing organization to watch this offseason with the all-in move to acquire Sauce Gardner not panning out (1-7 record after the trade), but it’s important to remember that they were 8-2 before Daniel Jones started playing through a fractured fibula that unfortunately led to a torn Achilles. On the other hand, general manager Chris Ballard has not won the AFC South in nine years at the helm, and owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon might decide it’s time for a fresh start with a chance to reshape the football operations in her own way. This weekend, sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard will be tasked with overcoming a ferocious Houston pass rush in his first career start.
Winner: Houston Texans
TEN (3-13) @ JAX (12-4)
Sunday, January 4 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The two hottest teams in the NFL reside in the AFC South with the Jaguars (seven consecutive wins) and Texans (eight consecutive wins) playing their best football as the calendar turns to January. Jacksonville could still be on upset alert this week, though, as the Titans have turned a corner offensively with 24+ points in each of the past four games, and Cameron Ward has an 8:1 touchdown-interception ratio over that span for what has turned into a very solid rookie campaign—especially considering the midseason coaching change. With a chance to ruin the AFC South coronation for the Jags, I would look for Tennessee to pull out all the stops, and more balance is necessary after Tony Pollard had just 10 carries for 60 yards in the first meeting (a 25-3 loss). We could be due for some Week 18 drama based on how the season has played out, so it wouldn’t be shocking if Trevor Lawrence—being one of the streakiest quarterbacks in the league—goes cold and turns the ball over; but that probably isn’t something to bet on with how Jacksonville is rolling.
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars
GB (9-6-1) @ MIN (8-8)
Sunday, January 4 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
A bunch of starters will sit for Green Bay this week since they’re locked into the No. 7 seed, and that includes at quarterback with Clayton Tune drawing the start—and he should still have some weapons to work with throwing to Matthew Golden, Dontayvion Wicks, and Bo Melton. In Week 12, the Packers were able to ride Emanuel Wilson (30 touches for 125 yads and two touchdowns) with the defense holding J.J. McCarthy to just 87 passing yards in a 23-6 win, and I could see Green Bay having more starters play defensively as they try to get on track following last Saturday night’s demolition at the hands of Derrick Henry. Either way, the Packers do have one advantage in knowing Justin Jefferson will be featured with 53 yards needed to reach 1,000 on the season (which is crazy to think about considering his numbers before 2025), and McCarthy can’t be in his own head in trying to get him the milestone. It’s worth nothing that Jefferson has been held below 53 yards in seven-of-nine games since the start of November, so it’s certainly not going to be easy—and I’d look for Minnesota to dial up a downfield shot early to hopefully connect on.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings
DAL (7-8-1) @ NYG (3-13)
Sunday, January 4 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Giants have reversed course in the past (like when it seemed former head coach Joe Judge would be safe), but there is plenty of smoke about general manager Joe Schoen returning for 2026—which seems inexplicable with the results (12-38 record over the past three years) and process (as we saw on Hard Knocks) leaving much to be desired. While fans have voiced their displeasure about Schoen remaining in place, it feels more apathetic than last year; that should arguably concern ownership more than anything with anger turning into indifference for such a proud fanbase. There is no Ben Johnson this coaching cycle, but the reported candidates for head coach don’t inspire a ton of confidence, and it doesn’t seem like a “wide-ranging” search to me despite those words being fed to the media. This time last year, it was clear that New York was making a mistake and would again end up at the bottom of the standings, and by staying the course, they will predictably win five or six games next season and try to twist it as progress (in a league build for parity).
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
NYJ (3-13) @ BUF (11-5)
Sunday, January 4 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
It is the end of an era for Buffalo with Highmark Stadium having one final game—unless the wild card teams go on a run in the AFC playoffs—before a new stadium opens next season, and they are playing the starters with the No. 6 seed (or No. 5 with help earlier in the day) yet to be locked up. The status of Josh Allen was one to watch with the team perhaps wanting him to heal up for the Wild Card Round, but the reigning NFL MVP is off the injury report, and it would have been unfortunate to have his final pass at Highmark be a missed game-winner on a two-point conversion. I assume Sean McDermott wanted to avoid a draining overtime finish versus the Eagles (and the throw was open for Allen), but the Bills had all the momentum on their side last week, so it was at least uncommon to go for the win as the home team. Nonetheless, the Jets present the perfect opponent to build new momentum against, and James Cook III will know what he needs to earn the rushing title with Jonathan Taylor playing in the early slate.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
DET (8-8) @ CHI (11-5)
Sunday, January 4 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The Bears will lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win over the Lions this weekend, but they are tasked with overcoming a proud, talented Detroit squad that won’t be resting their starters after being eliminated from playoff contention on Christmas. A lot has changed since the first matchup with Ben Johnson’s return to Ford Field not going well in a 52-21 blowout, but the defense for Chicago was exposed in the Sunday night loss to San Francisco—and it has to hurt the Lions some to see their former offensive coordinator have success in Year 1 with his new team. However, I fully expect Detroit to be squarely in Super Bowl contention again next year, and the Bears showed the offensive line (formerly a strength for the Lions) can be fixed in one offseason; for this week, that should mean plenty of time for Caleb Williams versus a banged-up secondary, and electric rookie Luther Burden III could star again as the Bears need 270 passing yards from Caleb to get their first 4,000-yard passer in franchise history.
Winner: Chicago Bears
LAC (11-5) @ DEN (13-3)
Sunday, January 4 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
The Chargers are resting Justin Herbert and others this week, so things set up great for Denver as they look to clinch homefield advantage in the AFC—which would be a huge benefit with Mile High being such a difficult road environment in a wide-open year for the conference. One player the Broncos will have to contend with on Sunday is Keenan Allen, and I’d anticipate him being the favorite target of Trey Lance; in the September win, the veteran had a 7/65/1 line, and he’s playing for heavy contract incentives that he will be counting on the former No. 3 overall pick to help hit. Still, I could see this week playing out similar to last year for Denver (they blew out the Kansas City backups, 38-0, to lock up a playoff spot) with a decisive victory. If that’s the case and Bo Nix has another standout showing, I don’t see why he shouldn’t be the MVP favorite with the best record in the league, the most game-winning drives in the league (seven), and the raw numbers to match other winners.
Winner: Denver Broncos
ARI (3-13) @ LAR (11-5)
Sunday, January 4 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
It would not be shocking if Matthew Stafford—carrying a 42:8 touchdown-interception ratio into Week 18—ended up winning MVP despite the primetime loss to Atlanta last week, as many voters might look at the numbers when submitting their ballot. That said, it’s tough to make an argument that Stafford should get the award on a third-place team in the NFC West, and it’s not like he’s been clutch (just one game-winning drive) or is elevating a weak supporting cast (he has Sean McVay, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams). The case to make for Stafford would be every quarterback with 45+ touchdown passes in a season won MVP (in that same year) other than Drew Brees—but that was because Aaron Rodgers also reached 45 scores and went 15-1. I’ll reiterate that Bo Nix should be the favorite, but the media doesn’t like him, so we’ll see if the debate between Stafford and Drake Maye intensifies if Los Angeles takes advantage of an Arizona defense that has allowed 37+ points in three of their past four games.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
KC (6-10) @ LV (2-14)
Sunday, January 4 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
I touched on the indefensible decision to shut down Maxx Crosby ahead of last week’s loss to the Giants, but I don’t think Las Vegas took close to enough heat for it. Even if the franchise—with a loss this week—locks up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, the cost was alienating one of the best players in the NFL. If we fast forward to the end of Crosby’s career, you can be sure he will be a player who wishes he could suit up one more time (a common thought from the greats when they hang up their cleats); the Raiders blatantly tanking took two opportunities to play away from a guy who is all about football, so I’m not sure it’s something he will get over. The irony would be Las Vegas winning this week to drop in the draft order anyway, and the Chiefs might be determined to give younger players even more of a shot after Christmas Night sort of felt like the last real game for Travis Kelce… but it seems impossible to go lower than the Raiders at this point.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
MIA (7-9) @ NE (13-3)
Sunday, January 4 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The Dolphins bringing in Troy Aikman to advise team owner Stephen Ross on the search for a general manager seems like a wise move, and although the Hall of Fame quarterback is said to not be a candidate himself, I wonder if this ends with Aikman in a head of football operations-type role with a GM underneath him. Before the search really gets underway next week, Mike McDaniel is trying to make a final impression with another win after beating Tampa Bay last week—and ruining New England’s chances at the No. 1 seed could go a long way towards keeping the job into 2026. De’Von Achane (shoulder) being out as Miami’s best player would hurt, though, and the Patriots are getting healthier as Will Campbell (knee) and Milton Williams (ankle) return as leaders in the trenches. Maybe the increase in difficulty level compared to the Jets last week will lead to New England not being at their best (and all three of their losses have come at home this season), but a letdown feels unlikely.
Winner: New England Patriots
WAS (4-12) @ PHI (11-5)
Sunday, January 4 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
Philadelphia can still earn the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win versus Washington and a Chicago loss to Detroit, so it’s a bit surprising that Jalen Hurts and other key starters will rest. I wonder if Dan Quinn saying his team will get another shot at the Eagles after a chippy loss in Week 16 is a factor, but Philly might end up regretting their decision if they head to Soldier Field in the Divisional Round. Of course, the Eagles might believe their backups have a real shot at coming away with a win (and I think they do), so keep an eye on the connection between Tanner McKee and Jahan Dotson—not to mention Tank Bigsby showing he’s a very capable runner when given the opportunity—versus a unit that has struggled all season with an NFL-high 8.3 passing yards per attempt allowed and the second-worst run defense in football (145.7 yards per game allowed). The advantage for the Commanders would be Terry McLaurin not having to deal with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, but the trades for Jakorian Bennett and Michael Carter II could pay off on Sunday.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
BAL (8-8) @ PIT (9-7)
Sunday, January 4 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
It doesn’t get much better than Ravens-Steelers for the AFC North title and final playoff spot to end the regular season, and each side will get a big-time addition with Lamar Jackson (back) and T.J. Watt (lung) returning for the primetime clash. Pittsburgh is the underdog at home, but Mike Tomlin has gone 7-1 over the past eight meetings where his team was the getting points versus Baltimore. The concern—and one the Steelers didn’t do enough to correct considering Aaron Rodgers has preferred throwing to wide receivers throughout his career—is the lack of threats behind DK Metcalf, so we’ll see if Calvin Austin III (hamstring) is back with Metcalf still suspended. The offense will also be down monster tight end Darnell Washington (arm) to further drain the supporting cast for Rodgers, but Sunday night will likely be won in the trenches—as is usually the case for Ravens-Steelers. That would seem to put things in favor of Baltimore if they can keep the play style of feeding Derrick Henry going with Jackson under center, but the combination of Watt returning, Pittsburgh being at home, and Rodgers playing on Sunday Night Football could be enough to take Game No. 272.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers