Season: 44-19-1
SF (3-1) @ LAR (3-1)
Thursday, October 2 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
The 49ers have been destroyed by injuries through four weeks, but tonight’s matchup is still a battle for first place in the NFC West—and Kyle Shanahan’s squad shouldn’t be counted out. Brock Purdy (toe) being out will put Mac Jones back under center, and he’s already proven he can win games with a 2-0 record this year, so look for him to operate a quick-strike passing attack (which Shanahan has already said will be the case) built around Christian McCaffrey. Even if Jones can move the ball, though, San Francisco’s pass rush obviously isn’t as feared with Nick Bosa (knee) done for the year, and Los Angeles is in a great spot offensively with Puka Nacua looking unstoppable, Kyren Williams running with an edge, and Davante Adams fitting in very nicely thus far. Second-year cornerback Renardo Green being back after missing Week 4 with a neck injury will help, but a resurgent Bryce Huff and the rookies on the defensive line will likely need to consistently get to Matthew Stafford for the Niners to pull off the upset considering all their injuries on a short week.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
MIN (2-2) @ CLE (1-3)
Sunday, October 5 | 9:30 AM ET (London) | NFL Network
Third-round pick Dillon Gabriel is drawing his first career start this week in an attempt to spark the offense, and I expect Cleveland will be another team that relies heavily on underneath passes to complement the running game; it’s a strategy that worked last week for the Giants in an upset win over the Chargers, but Minnesota is perhaps the worst matchup imaginable for a young quarterback, as Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has dominated rookie signal-callers with an 11-1 record in his career as the defensive play-caller or head coach. Gabriel showed in the preseason that he will get the ball out of his hands quickly, but Minnesota knows that, too, and I’m sure they’ll be gearing up to make sure Quinshon Judkins doesn’t run all over them—forcing the Browns into unfavorable situations on third downs. Cleveland having the NFL’s best run defense over the first month of the season could put more on Carson Wentz, but the passing attack got going late in Ireland, and we’ll see if that continues this week in London.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings
HOU (1-3) @ BAL (1-3)
Sunday, October 5 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The early-season schedule has been difficult for Baltimore with the losses coming against the Bills, Lions, and Chiefs—but injuries have piled up, and last week was very concerning for what essentially turned into a non-competitive loss to Kansas City. Although Lamar Jackson (hamstring) might not miss as much time as Roquan Smith (hamstring) or Marlon Humphrey (calf), the probable absence of the two-time NFL MVP is the biggest concern with the Ravens now at 1-3 with matchups versus the Texans and Rams to begin this month. If Jackson is out on Sunday, they need to feed Derrick Henry (which they should have been doing anyway), and it’d be wise to get Isaiah Likely involved as well. The struggles for C.J. Stroud versus Baltimore with an 0-3 record and 7.0 points per game (including playoffs) and Houston being on the road are reasons to believe the Ravens can still come out on top, but this could be another case of a team arguably getting the wrong backup if Cooper Rush—signed to a two-year deal in the offseason—is unable to move the ball.
Winner: Houston Texans
MIA (1-3) @ CAR (1-3)
Sunday, October 5 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Tyreek Hill (knee) being done for the year increases the difficulty level, but last week, I mentioned the soft schedule for Miami over the next few weeks—and Monday night was an encouraging start to their hopeful turnaround. The Dolphins have been a top-heavy offense under Mike McDaniel, so they are fortunate that Darren Waller stepped up in his team debut with two touchdowns, and the passing attack should be very creative with De’Von Achane and Waller being used more out wide to support Jaylen Waddle; we already got a glimpse of Achane running a downfield route last week in what I assume was simply him sliding into Hill’s role on a particular play, and it’s something he did across his first two seasons. As a runner, Achane was given major praise by McDaniel for his performance on Monday night with the head coach saying he made a few plays within the scheme that McDaniel hadn’t seen in two decades coaching, so the Miami offense should be just fine for at least this week in Carolina.
Winner: Miami Dolphins
LV (1-3) @ IND (3-1)
Sunday, October 5 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Las Vegas and Indianapolis are both coming off a disappointing loss in Week 4, as the Raiders were defeated by Chicago on a blocked field goal in the final minute, while the Colts were impacted by Adonai Mitchell losing the ball before crossing the goal line on a would-be 76-yard touchdown in a down-to-the-wire loss to the Rams. This week, stopping the run will be key for each side with Ashton Jeanty coming off a breakout game (23 touches for 155 total yards and three total touchdowns) and Jonathan Taylor currently leading the NFL in rushing yards (414)—but the quarterback advantage clearly goes to Indy right now with Daniel Jones consistently moving the offense and Geno Smith leading the league in interceptions (seven). Another storyline for Sunday is Jones taking on the Raiders after it’s the team he tore his ACL against in 2023, and I don’t think Las Vegas has the pieces in the secondary to slow down the quartet of wideouts and star rookie Tyler Warren if too much emphasis is placed on stopping Taylor and the running game.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
NYG (1-3) @ NO (0-4)
Sunday, October 5 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Giants started the Jaxson Dart era with a hard-fought win over the Chargers, but it came at a cost with Malik Nabers (knee) done for the season—and it’ll be difficult to count on the New York defense to consistently play like they did last week versus a banged-up offensive line for LA. Even this week, the Saints won’t be as easy as most might expect with Kelvin Banks Jr. and Taliese Fuaga at the tackle spots, and Kellen Moore’s fast-paced attack could try to test the Giants vertically if Spencer Rattler has the time. For Dart and the New York offense, we can expect another heavy dose of short passes with Cam Skattebo setting the tone, and it’s a wise approach from Brian Daboll to build as much confidence as possible for his rookie passer. Dart does need to do a better job taking care of himself considering how much he’s running, but it’ll be exciting to see how Tyrone Tracy Jr. (shoulder) factors in with a more focused attack when he’s back in a week or two. While this is a spot where New Orleans can get on the board with a win, I like the Giants to build more momentum before the telling part of the schedule (v PHI, @ DEN, @ PHI) kicks in.
Winner: New York Giants
DAL (1-2-1) @ NYJ (0-4)
Sunday, October 5 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Cowboys battled their way to a 40-40 tie against Green Bay on Sunday night, and Dak Prescott was outstanding behind an offensive line that was without three starters—escaping Micah Parsons for much of the game and showing extreme poise hitting George Pickens and others. New York hasn’t lived up to expectations as a defense under Aaron Glenn so far, but he’s trying to build things from the ground up like Dan Campbell did in Detroit, and we can expect the Jets to have more focus this weekend after three turnovers doomed them versus Miami. Based on the way Dallas has played on defense this year, Justin Fields could have a big day as he takes on his former head coach in Matt Eberflus, but it’s also possible that the Cowboys defensive coordinator will know exactly how to defend the dual-threat quarterback. Either way, the lack of playmakers behind Garrett Wilson is a concern for New York, and Braelon Allen (knee) being out decreases the outlook of a ground-and-pound attack built around Fields and the running backs.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
DEN (2-2) @ PHI (4-0)
Sunday, October 5 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Broncos-Eagles should be the best game of Week 5, and it will be a measuring stick for Denver after struggling with more talented opponents in 2024. The concern I had about the Broncos entering the year was Bo Nix not having enough weapons around him, but their rookies showed well last week with RJ Harvey flashing (18 touches for 98 yards and a touchdown) and Pat Bryant II springing Marvin Mims Jr. for a rushing touchdown—and the chemistry continues to build for Nix and his pass-catchers like it did as his rookie campaign progressed. With star linebacker Nakobe Dean (knee) returning to practice but still out for Philadelphia, the Broncos might have success running the ball versus a surprisingly forgiving run defense to date, but I think Mims will be the X-factor this weekend as Courtland Sutton deals with Quinyon Mitchell. On the other side of the ball, DeVonta Smith can beat Riley Moss in one-on-one coverage with Pat Surtain II on A.J. Brown, but Moss gained some confidence last week, and defensive lineman Malcolm Roach (calf) returning would beef up the Denver front as they try to contain Saquon Barkley. I’ve switched the pick a couple of times here, but if the Broncos want to contend, this is a game they can win with the Eagles not at their best.
Winner: Denver Broncos
TEN (0-4) @ ARI (2-2)
Sunday, October 5 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
Arizona fought back last Thursday night in the last-second loss to Seattle, and Marvin Harrison Jr. was clutch with a 16-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter on a top cornerback in Devon Witherspoon. I would say Kyler Murray could do a better job building up the young receiver, but the two simply don’t seem to have a great on-field connection—so Harrison might not become a superstar in his current situation. That said, last year’s No. 4 overall pick deserves some time to develop, and it’s not as if he’s been a disappointment; Harrison has gone for a 78/1,093/10 line through his first 21 career games, which is a little better than his Hall of Fame father with an 87/1,062/9 line across the first 21 games for Marvin Harrison nearly 30 years ago. Tennessee has played stingy defense at times this season, but their season feels like it’s on the verge of flying off the tracks, and I expect Harrison to have a nice game and for Arizona to take care of business with a few extra days to prepare.
Winner: Arizona Cardinals
TB (3-1) @ SEA (3-1)
Sunday, October 5 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
Lost in all the conversations about Philadelphia’s struggles and Tampa Bay coming alive on offense last week, second-round cornerback Benjamin Morrison was terrific in coverage as the Eagles were held without a completion in the second half. It sounds like the Notre Dame product could miss this week with a hamstring injury, but when the defense is at full strength, Todd Bowles has the cover guys to play with the level of aggression that he desires—which is a scary thought paired with how loaded Tampa Bay is offensively. Seattle is a more centralized attack around Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the running game, but complementary pieces like Tory Horton and AJ Barner have also stepped up at times for Sam Darnold—who head coach Mike Macdonald said is “playing out of his mind right now.” He still has plenty to prove in January, but Darnold has shown over the past two years that the calendar turning to October won’t lead to him seeing ghosts, and I like Seattle as the healthier team at home.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
DET (3-1) @ CIN (2-2)
Sunday, October 5 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
Detroit is still being hit with defensive injuries like no team in the league dating back to last season, but if we’re looking for a silver lining, D.J. Reed (hamstring) will be back this season after he originally feared he ripped his muscle from the bone last weekend. Plus, star defensive lineman Alim McNeill (knee) could make his 2025 debut as soon as this week, and the perspective on his recovery shows a) his high character, and b) how far the Lions have come as an organization. Cincinnati will have a chance to pull off an upset most weeks due to the big-play upside of Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, but Jake Browning and the offensive line have struggled, and it feels like a move will need to be made at quarterback if things don’t change soon. My recommendation for the Bengals would be to rewatch Jake Fromm’s tape against them in the 2023 preseason, but for this week, I’m excited to see how the feisty Amik Robertson fares in coverage against Chase.
Winner: Detroit Lions
WAS (2-2) @ LAC (3-1)
Sunday, October 5 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
Washington is set to get Jayden Daniels (knee) back on Sunday, but quarterback play wasn’t the problem last week in the loss to Atlanta—and the Commanders are catching the Chargers at an inopportune time, as there is no doubt Jim Harbuagh’s squad will be angry and focused after being upset by the Giants. However, left tackle Joe Alt (ankle) being out does leave Justin Herbert exposed on the blindside again, so I wonder if Los Angeles will try Jamaree Salyer there, especially if Mekhi Becton (concussion) is back at right guard. No matter how the Chargers line up on the offensive line, Omarion Hampton needs more than the 12 carries he saw last week in New York, and it’d help keep an improved Washington pass rush at bay. Ideally, Los Angeles will be able to set up play-action opportunities for Herbert to attack a secondary that has been vulnerable with the sixth-most passing yards per game (248.5) and third-most passing yards per attempt (8.6) allowed. If Quentin Johnston stays hot, Ladd McConkey bounces back, and the LA defense can contain Daniels, they should be able to get the home victory.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
NE (2-2) @ BUF (4-0)
Sunday, October 5 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
For the most part over the years, Buffalo has shown they will play stout defense against lesser opponents while struggling versus top competition—so Sunday night will be somewhat of a gauge for whether the Patriots are for real in 2025. I’m skeptical with New England benefitting from perhaps the easiest early-season schedule in the league in terms of opposing pass defenses, but Mike Vrabel has already set the culture for the team, and the Pats gave the Bills a fight last December with a 24-21 loss. The statuses of Ed Oliver (ankle) and Matt Milano (pectoral) are important to monitor, but they both have been back at practice this week, and Sunday night feels like a game where Buffalo will want to squash New England as a possible challenger in the AFC East. So, with Josh Allen not having his best outing last week and James Cook continuing to run wild, it’s tough to go against the Bills in their first game with the “Cold Front” uniforms.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
KC (2-2) @ JAX (3-1)
Monday, October 6 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
The Jaguars being 3-1 despite the passing attack struggling is a good sign for the team, as the running game has been excellent with Travis Etienne Jr. showing the big-play ability that has made him such a force when healthy—and there is too much talent at wide receiver for Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter to not explode soon. Kansas City has typically been better attacked through the air than on the ground, but that hasn’t been the case this year with 4.9 yards per carry allowed, and Day 2 rookies Omarr Norman-Lott and Ashton Gillotte are still finding their footing at the NFL level as two players the Chiefs will be counting on to be better by the end of the season. In the meantime, Patrick Mahomes and the offense suddenly seem to have recaptured their magic, and first-rounder Josh Simmons is paying immediate dividends, so it’ll be fun to see him face Josh Hines-Allen—who needs 2.0 sacks on Monday night to set the all-time franchise record. The matchup also happens to land on Trevor Lawrence’s birthday, but the Jags might be learning to win this type of game, while Kansas City’s championship DNA showed itself last week in the win over Baltimore.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs