Season: 50-27-1
PHI (4-1) @ NYG (1-4)
Thursday, October 9 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
The Giants have shown how quickly things can change in the NFL over the past two weeks, as an upset win over the Chargers had some believing in a sudden turnaround—but it was followed up by a loss to the Saints that saw them turn the ball over on five consecutive possessions. Not having Malik Nabers (knee) obviously hurts, but the college-like offense centered around Jaxson Dart already feels like it was figured out, so we’ll see if the return of Tyrone Tracy Jr. adds another element (New York would be wise to get him involved as a pass-catcher and get Tracy and Cam Skattebo on the field together); the Eagles haven’t been great versus the run this season (4.7 yards per carry allowed), but standout linebacker Nakobe Dean (knee) is set to make his season debut and can tie everything together behind Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter. Although the Giants have given some trouble to Jalen Hurts at times throughout his career, I don’t believe tonight will be one of those times, and A.J. Brown could be primed for a monster game.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
DEN (3-2) @ NYJ (0-5)
Sunday, October 12 | 9:30 PM ET (London) | NFL Network
Overcoming a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to knock off the defending Super Bowl champions on the road—and a brutal environment at that having been at Lincoln Financial Field—was a statement win for Denver, and there is no reason they shouldn’t get to 5-2 with games against the Jets and Giants up next. Bo Nix showed his poise with a few big-time throws versus a tough Vic Fangio defense last week, and Courtland Sutton beating top cornerback Quinyon Mitchell in the fourth quarter proved that the Nix-Sutton connection has turned into one of the best in football. Sauce Garner will be another challenge this week and we might see Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin, and especially Evan Engram more involved, but the Broncos need to stay within themselves to not give any confidence to a New York team that has yet to force a turnover through five games. On the other side of the ball, Denver will likely have Pat Surtain II on Garrett Wilson with limited receiving threats behind him, so the best chance of an upset for the Jets is a heavy ground-and-pound attack with Justin Fields and Breece Hall leading the way.
Winner: Denver Broncos
LAR (3-2) @ BAL (1-4)
Sunday, October 12 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Rams-Ravens was an overtime thriller a couple of years ago that ended on a 76-yard punt return touchdown by Tylan Wallace—but Baltimore already has more losses now than they did at that point when they were 9-3 entering the Week 14 matchup. Lamar Jackson (hamstring) is almost certainly going to be out again along with a string of key defenders to put the Ravens at a severe disadvantage, so a huge game from Derrick Henry might be the only path to an upset. At the very least, Baltimore needs to give Henry more than the 12.3 touches per game he’s seen over the past four weeks, and Tyler Huntley drawing the start over Cooper Rush at quarterback could help open things up for the running backs. Los Angeles has been extremely stout versus the run to begin the season, but Henry can change a game if a defender takes one bad angle, and Isaiah Likely (5/83/1 against the Rams two years ago) needs to be involved, too. Still, I don’t see the Ravens being able to stop Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams this weekend, and LA will come in with some anger after a disappointing loss last Thursday night to the 49ers.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
DAL (2-2-1) @ CAR (2-3)
Sunday, October 12 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Carolina showed shocking resiliency last week by erasing a 17-0 hole to beat the Dolphins, 27-24, just when it looked like their season was hanging in the balance—and Rico Dowdle going off with 206 rushing yards was a major part of the victory. Finding a way to start faster is imperative for the Panthers to be a more consistent team, but the win over Miami was another spot where Bryce Young battled back; even if some of the comebacks haven’t resulted in a victory, the fight shown by Young throughout his career when trailing is as good of a sign as any that he has what it takes to be a franchise quarterback. The Cowboys have a very beatable defense for the Panthers to perhaps escape with another win this week, but Dak Prescott has been completely locked in this year, and Dallas will be scary offensively when CeeDee Lamb (ankle) is thrown back into the mix. With all the talk of Dowdle facing his former team (and he’ll undoubtedly be running extremely hard on Sunday), a resurgent Javonte Williams has been excellent for the Cowboys and could have a big game himself as a North Carolina native and former star for the Tar Heels.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
ARI (2-3) @ IND (4-1)
Sunday, October 12 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Cardinals had one of the worst self-inflicted meltdowns in recent memory in the 22-21 loss to the Titans last week, and all the momentum from a 2-0 start has been completely erased at the worst possible time with a daunting rest-of-season schedule (the Bengals in Week 17—when they could have Joe Burrow back from his toe injury—is the only opponent left that currently has a losing record). Jonathan Gannon has caught a lot of heat this week for multiple reasons, but the roster doesn’t have enough offensive firepower, and Arizona should have made a move after James Conner (ankle) went down in Week 3. Instead, it feels like everything hinges on Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. being on the same page, which puts a lot on the young receiver as he looks to have a memorable performance back in Indianapolis after his father had a Hall of Fame career with the Colts. In general, Sunday could go a long way to determining if the Cardinals are still bought into Gannon as their leader, but Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor are too hot to pick against right now.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
SEA (3-2) @ JAX (4-1)
Sunday, October 12 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Jacksonville got a massive win over Kansas City on Monday night, and the team was aggressive in improving the roster despite a 4-1 start—acquiring cornerback Greg Newsome II in exchange for cornerback Tyson Campbell. Now, the Jags have three sticky cornerbacks in Newsome, Jourdan Lewis, and Jarrian Jones to better match their desired play style, which might also prompt them to increase the role for Travis Hunter on offense after his ability was on full display against the Chiefs. This week, the cornerback group will be tested versus emerging superstar Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a red-hot Sam Darnold, but I’d be almost as worried about the defense containing Kenneth Walker III—who Seattle should get in space similar to how Kansas City used rookie Brashard Smith on Monday night. On the other hand, Darnold’s worst game as a Viking came in a 12-7 win over the Jags where he had 241 passing yards and three interceptions last November, and we’ll see if a new coaching staff for Jacksonville can have the same kind of success containing JSN and Cooper Kupp that they did Justin Jefferson (5/48) and Jordan Addison (2/25). Consider this pick a gut feeling with the Jags coming off a down-to-the-wire win and maybe looking ahead to a matchup against the Rams next week in London.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
LAC (3-2) @ MIA (1-4)
Sunday, October 12 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Chargers appeared to be a more serious Super Bowl contender than ever following a 3-0 start, but injuries have struck yet again—leading to Justin Herbert cooling off behind a shaky offensive line (184.5 passing yards per game and 2:3 touchdown-interception ratio over the past two weeks) and the pass rush to slow down without Khalil Mack (elbow). Los Angeles made an aggressive move to acquire former first-round edge defender Odafe Oweh in exchange for safety Alohi Gilman this week, so keep an eye on rookie R.J. Mickens stepping up on the backend with Jim Harbuagh saying “it’s his time to shine” following the trade, For the Dolphins, their pass rushers must finally step up to prevent Herbert from getting comfortable again, and they made a mistake in going away from De’Von Achane with just 10 carries last week in a game they led 17-0. Tua Tagovailoa torched LA with 466 passing yards and three touchdowns (one interception) a couple of years ago and has the 2-1 career advantage versus Herbert in a battle of 2020 draft picks, but look for the Chargers to get back on track this week.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
CLE (1-4) @ PIT (3-1)
Sunday, October 12 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The schedule will get tougher soon for Pittsburgh, but they’re coming out of the bye at 3-1—and a five-day stretch with games against the Browns on Sunday and Bengals next Thursday night could really position them nicely in the AFC North. I still think another offensive addition could help with someone like Rashid Shaheed opening things up for DK Metcalf down the field and Jonnu Smith underneath, so that’s something to keep an eye on leading up to the trade deadline. Defensively, the Steelers need to be ready for rookie running back Quinshon Judkins this week, as he already looks like one of the best backs in the league, and there have been too many games over the past couple of years where Pittsburgh has been uncharacteristically soft defending the run. Jalen Ramsey (hamstring) being out this week would boost the matchup for rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel after a solid debut, but Joey Porter Jr. (hamstring) should be back—and the Browns trading away Greg Newsome II for Tyson Campbell will leave them weaker at the right cornerback spot (where Metcalf will often align) with Campbell expected to have a limited role in his team debut.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
NE (3-2) @ NO (1-4)
Sunday, October 12 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
New England winning last Sunday night in Buffalo puts them squarely in playoff contention to begin the Mike Vrabel era—and the turnaround from last year (when they went 4-13) shows the importance of having a good coach. A letdown following an emotional win is always a possibility, but New Orleans will be taken seriously after getting their first win last week, and I like how Vrabel’s defense will match up on the interior with Milton Williams and Christian Barmore in the middle. In the secondary, New England having Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III, and Marcus Jones healthy at cornerback is a big reason they’ve allowed just 16.5 points per game over the past two weeks, and Spencer Rattler could be due for a rockier start despite a 6:1 touchdown-interception ratio to begin the season. I’m curious to see how Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley defends Drake Maye (maybe some slot blitzes?), but Josh McDaniels should have the answers for his young quarterback.
Winner: New England Patriots
TEN (1-4) @ LV (1-4)
Sunday, October 12 | 4:05 PM ET | FOX
Las Vegas hired Pete Carroll to win now, but the Silver and Black sit at 1-4 with a struggling veteran quarterback—and finger-pointing is already happening with Geno Smith highlighting the inexperience at wide receiver and Carroll himself saying Geno isn’t the one calling plays. The sudden drama has me thinking it was Carroll who made the ultimate call at quarterback this offseason, and it’s more than fair to question the organization’s decision-making with the “shortcut” to contention clearly not working (especially since they tried it in a loaded AFC West). To the credit of some media members covering the team, there has been pushback against those wanting to place the blame on offensive coordinator Chip Kelly for the struggles, as players have been schemed open, and Smith leads the NFL in interceptions (nine) because he’s not seeing the field well. Any hope of a turnaround needs to start this weekend, and failure to beat the Titans at home could lead to the Raiders going with a complete reset that should have probably happened in the spring.
Winner: Las Vegas Raiders
SF (4-1) @ TB (4-1)
Sunday, October 12 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
I mentioned the 49ers using a quick-strike passing attack last week with Mac Jones quarterbacking an undermanned offense—and it’s something Kyle Shanahan even said would be the case before the game. Fortunately for San Francisco, the Rams somehow didn’t get the memo, so the Niners now sit alone atop the NFC West with the best record in football (and heavy reinforcements still to come on offense). For this week, we can expect another heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey, but Tampa Bay has done a good job against him over the past couple of years (3.4 yards per carry on 34 attempts), and Todd Bowles won’t sit back and let Jones pick his defense apart like Los Angeles did. Offensively, the Bucs have the deepest collection of wide receivers in the NFL to overcome the absence of Mike Evans (hamstring), and Baker Mayfield is coming off one of the best games of his career by completing 29-of-33 passes for 379 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over Seattle. However, San Francisco had a few extra days to prepare, and Sunday could be a chance for second-year cornerback Renardo Green to establish himself as a household name if he can slow down NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Emeka Egbuka.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers
CIN (2-3) @ GB (2-1-1)
Sunday, October 12 | 4:25 PM ET | CBS
The Bengals have two games in five days starting this weekend, so Joe Flacco will only have a few days of practice to learn the system and build chemistry with his pass-catchers as he’s thrusted into the position of trying to save Cincinnati’s season. But if there’s a quarterback that is built for such a situation, it’s Flacco—as he has an attacking mindset as a passer and is willing to give his guys (in this case, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins) a chance to make plays. The main concern would be the offensive line not holding up and the former Super Bowl MVP providing limited mobility at this stage of his career, and Green Bay has been very stingy with the fewest passing yards per attempt allowed (5.6) in the league. Plus, unlike last month when Flacco helped guide the Browns to an upset win over the Packers, he will likely need to put up more than 13 points this time with the recharged Green Bay offense taking on a Cincinnati defense that’s allowing 31.2 points per game.
Winner: Green Bay Packers
DET (4-1) @ KC (2-3)
Sunday, October 12 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
The Lions and Chiefs don’t meet often, but Detroit ruining Kansas City’s banner night a couple of years ago to open the 2023 season was the “arrival” moment for Dan Campbell’s squad—and Jared Goff has defeated Patrick Mahomes in both career matchups (with the other being the 54-51 shootout on Monday Night Football back in 2018). A desperate team with a championship pedigree like the Chiefs won’t be easy to face coming off a loss, but Campbell will be preaching the right message to his players going into a rough primetime environment, and the Lions are simply a better roster right now. While the weakness for Detroit is at cornerback with D.J. Reed (hamstring) and Terrion Arnold (shoulder) out, Rashee Rice has one more game to serve in his suspension to make Andy Reid’s offense a bit easier to defend—and Aidan Hutchinson has heated up with nine quarterback hits over the past two weeks to potentially wreck the game matched up on Jawaan Taylor. Considering all the ways the Lions can attack opponents on offense, I like them to again get the best of Kansas City and perhaps establish themselves as Super Bowl favorites with a win on Sunday night.
Winner: Detroit Lions
BUF (4-1) @ ATL (2-2)
Monday, October 13 | 7:15 PM ET | ESPN
Speaking of the Super Bowl, there is no doubt Buffalo has the quarterback in Josh Allen to win it all—but last week was another strike against the coaching staff and the rest of the roster for the Bills arguably not being good enough. On offense, James Cook wasn’t given enough touches in the loss to New England (he handled 15 carries and had zero receptions after 21.8 touches across the first four games), and the lack of a vertical speed element is sorely lacking for Buffalo, which is inexcusable when you have one of the best arms in NFL history under center. On defense, the Bills have been without first-round pick Maxwell Hairston (knee), so they’ve gotten essentially zero from two top-50 picks with defensive tackle T.J. Sanders (out last week with a knee injury) being a non-factor thus far. On the other hand, Atlanta is disappointed to be 2-2, but they had the kind of draft—with Jalon Walker, James Pearce Jr., Billy Bowman Jr., and Xavier Watts all shining—that Buffalo needed get out of the AFC in January. If Sean McDermott’s defense can’t stop Bijan Robinson on Monday night, it’ll be difficult to believe in the Bills making a run without Allen being perfect.
Winner: Buffalo Bills
CHI (2-2) @ WAS (3-2)
Monday, October 13 | 8:15 PM ET | ABC
There are multiple top storylines for Commanders-Bears this week—from the Hail Mary loss for Chicago last fall that led to a complete spiral under Matt Eberflus, to a rematch of Caleb Williams versus Jayden Daniels, to Ben Johnson facing the team that beat him in the playoffs last season, to Washington getting another shot (this time with him as the head coach) at Johnson after he turned them down before they hired Dan Quinn. On the field, these teams played a slugfest last year, but Monday night sure feels like a possible shootout to me, as the Bears found their offensive groove prior to the bye, and Washington is getting healthier with Quinn expressing optimism about Terry McLaurin (quad) returning. Chicago has struggled mightily on defense at times and might not be able to stop McLaurin on the outside and Deebo Samuel Sr. and Zach Ertz in the middle of the field, but Williams has surely been thinking about this game all year—and Johnson will have had two weeks to prepare for an opponent that he might want to beat more than anyone.
Winner: Chicago Bears