Season: 60-32-1
PIT (4-1) @ CIN (2-4)
Thursday, October 16 | 8:15 PM ET | Prime Video
The past two weeks of Thursday Night Football—with the depleted 49ers upsetting the Rams and the Giants dominating the Eagles—showed that anything can happen in divisional games on a short week, and the Steelers have really struggled on TNF no matter how you slice it: 1-5 record since 2019, 0-8 record on the road in the division since 1970, 2-9 overall road record under Mike Tomlin. However, this year has felt different for Pittsburgh, and their short-week struggles might be offset by the overwhelming success of Aaron Rodgers playing on Thursday throughout his career (13-6 record with a. 42:5 touchdown-interception ratio). Plus, the Bengals will be without Trey Hendrickson (hip), while the pass rush for the Steelers has come alive since a quiet start with 17 sacks over the past three games. If the trio of Joey Porter Jr., Jalen Ramsey, and Darius Slay can keep Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins from getting loose for Joe Flacco, I like Pittsburgh to stay hot and extend their lead in the AFC North.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers
LAR (4-2) @ JAX (4-2)
Sunday, October 19 | 9:30 AM ET (London) | NFL Network
Jacksonville is sort of like the AFC version of the Rams with general manager James Gladstone coming over from Los Angeles and some backroom politics seemingly leading to him and head coach Liam Coen getting hired as the new regime earlier this year—so the final London game will be an interesting matchup. At this point, the Rams are clearly further along as a team, but Puka Nacua (ankle) likely being out on Sunday is a significant blow to the offense, and the connection between Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams hasn’t quite been on the same page; just last week, Adams was missed for two early touchdowns that Stafford overshot. Perhaps the absence of Nacua (who Stafford locks onto at times like he did Cooper Kupp in previous years) would force the pairing to get fully on track, though; it’s easy to imagine none of the rotating cornerbacks for Jacksonville having an answer for Adams this weekend. The same might be true of Brian Thomas Jr. on the other side of the ball, but I’m leaning towards the experience of the Rams winning out.
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
NO (1-5) @ CHI (3-2)
Sunday, October 19 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The Bears picked up a huge win over Washington on Monday night to overcome the disappointment of last year’s infamous loss on a Hail Mary, and I like what we saw from the Chicago defense coming out of the bye—including improved run defense by limiting rookie Bill Croskey-Merritt to 17 carries for 61 yards (3.6 YPC) and a lost fumble. Issues on the backend are still there and might be all year if top cornerback Jaylon Johnson (groin) doesn’t return, so creating turnovers like they did against the Commanders is key for them to build on the primetime win. This week, defensive coordinator Dennis Allen would surely love to beat his former team, but Spencer Rattler has done an excellent job taking care of the ball in Kellen Moore’s system with just one interception in six starts, and I’d keep an eye on Kendre Miller perhaps getting increased work after a rocky relationship with Allen over the past couple of years. We also shouldn’t forget Rattler himself will have a chip on his shoulder after Caleb Williams replaced him at Oklahoma, but the Bears have more weapons and are hot with three wins in a row.
Winner: Chicago Bears
MIA (1-5) @ CLE (1-5)
Sunday, October 19 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The formula for Cleveland to be competitive is running the ball with Quinshon Judkins and relying on their defense, so for them to throw it 52 times (compared to 12 carries for Judkins) in the loss to the Steelers was insane; and it wasn’t a case of playing from behind, as the game was never too far out of hand, and the tone was set from the opening play when they went in empty (which literally caused me to chuckle). Kevin Stefanski is a two-time NFL Coach of the Year and obviously had tons of success with the Nick Chubb-led offenses, so we’ll see if the Browns get back to their needed run-first strategy versus a Miami defense that has been shredded by Rico Dowdle (23 carries for 206 yards and a touchdown) and Kimani Vidal (18 carries for 124 yards) so far this month. If wind and rain are a factor, it could limit the Dolphins being able to get De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle the ball in space (or down the field), and Cleveland is the tougher team if it turns into a grind-it-out brawl.
Winner: Cleveland Browns
LV (2-4) @ KC (3-3)
Sunday, October 19 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
The Raiders have been a thorn in the Chiefs’ side over the past couple of years—particularly at Arrowhead where Las Vegas ruined their Christmas in 2023 with an upset win, and then last year on Black Friday when they nearly pulled off another upset until Aidan O’Connell lost a fumble in the final seconds with the Raiders (with a 2-9 record) in field goal range to win it. Former head coach Antonio Pierce clearly got the message to his guys by making the matchup feel like the Super Bowl for them, so the motivation should be clear for Pete Carroll. Unfortunately, the same kind of fight hasn’t been there for the Silver and Black to begin 2025, but linebacker Devin White has been a bright spot, and the former Tampa Bay star has expressed confidence after helping the Bucs dominate Kansas City in Super Bowl LV; another standout performance by White (who had a sack, forced fumble, and interception last week) and Maxx Crosby (2.0 sacks last week) getting to Patrick Mahomes is crucial to have a shot, but the Chiefs might be too much to handle with Rashee Rice back in the lineup.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
PHI (4-2) @ MIN (3-2)
Sunday, October 19 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
The lack of depth for Philadelphia was on display last Thursday night as Jalen Carter (heel) being inactive and Quinyon Mitchell (hamstring) leaving early led to the defense completely falling apart—and they better figure things out in a hurry with Kevin O’Connell having a bye week to prepare how to attack with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The Eagles at least sound likely to have both Carter and Mitchell back, but linebacker play has been an issue all year, and I don’t understand why Nakobe Dean wasn’t back next to Zack Baun last week in his season debut (which would also boost the weakened edge rush with rookie Jihaad Campbell seeing more snaps there); if Dean isn’t there to clean things up, Jordan Mason could power his way to a big game like Cam Skattebo did in Week 6. For the Philly offense, Jalen Hurts had two uncharacteristic mistakes against the Giants with a missed deep ball and a poor read on a costly interception, but he’s taken care of the Vikings with three total touchdowns in both career matchups. So, while the Eagles need to have answers for O’Connell wanting to attack their No. 3 cornerback (whether Kelee Ringo or Adoree’ Jackson), I think it still might take Carson Wentz being completely locked in versus his former team for Minnesota to win.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
CAR (3-3) @ NYJ (0-6)
Sunday, October 19 | 1:00 PM ET | FOX
Rico Dowdle has been the engine to Carolina’s turnaround this season, but Bryce Young has proved to be the constant for basically every win since he was drafted—orchestrating a game-winning drive in eight of his nine career victories. In two different games, last week showed the difference between Young (tremendous pocket presence, high-end instincts, and a quick release) and Justin Fields (sacked nine times due to a slower overall operation as a passer), and the Panthers are winning games because they have the right quarterback under center. I was not as high on Fields as others were coming out of Ohio State, but in fairness to him, New York doesn’t have a ton to work with, and the best weapon they have is his legs—which haven’t been used enough on designed runs. In a way, the Jets being without Garrett Wilson (knee) for at least a couple of weeks could lead to an improved version of Fields by not needing to worry about getting him the ball, and it could result in more carries for him out of necessity considering the lack of playmakers on the roster. A win for the Jets should come eventually and it might be this week if Fields runs wild and Dowdle is cooled off, but Carolina has the momentum right now.
Winner: Carolina Panthers
NE (4-2) @ TEN (1-5)
Sunday, October 19 | 1:00 PM ET | CBS
Having the right head coach is arguably just as important as having the right quarterback, and all we have to do is look at the success of the Titans with and without Mike Vrabel—not to mention the immediate turnaround for New England this year. Tennessee firing head coach Brian Callahan just six games into Cameron Ward’s career makes for an even more chaotic situation there, but it certainly won’t lessen the desire of Vrabel to get some payback versus his former team. The Titans preventing downfield passes is one of the few things they’ve done well this year, so look for the Patriots to be more methodical to move the ball this week, especially if monstrous defensive lineman T’Vondre Sweat (ankle) isn’t back for Tennessee. I believe interim head coach Mike McCoy should help stabilize things for Ward the rest of the year, but it could be difficult to move the ball versus the cornerback trio of Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III, and Marcus Jones this week.
Winner: New England Patriots
NYG (2-4) @ DEN (4-2)
Sunday, October 19 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
Denver was carried by the defense last week as the group shut down the Jets with a couple of short fields early while the offense—which wasn’t in sync—put up just enough points to escape London with a win, and it’ll be good for them to be back home after a lengthy road trip. As was the case last year, I believe the Broncos getting Marvin Mims Jr. more involved could boost the offense, but Sunday feels like it’ll be a Courtland Sutton game after he was limited to one catch last week (with the last such performance being followed up by a 6/118/1 line), and Evan Engram should be involved versus his former team, too. On defense, I expect Denver will make sure Jaxson Dart doesn’t beat them as a runner after limiting both Jalen Hurts (three yards) and Justin Fields (31 yards) over the past two games, and Vance Joseph’s defense should do a much better job tackling at the second level and in the open field than Philadelphia did against the Giants last week. With the Chiefs coming alive in the AFC West, this isn’t the kind of game Denver can afford to lose at home if they want to be a legitimate contender.
Winner: Denver Broncos
IND (5-1) @ LAC (4-2)
Sunday, October 19 | 4:05 PM ET | CBS
The Colts have the best record in football (tied with the Buccaneers) heading into Week 7, and it hasn’t been a fluke with resilient wins over Denver and Arizona, a close loss to the Rams that included the dropped ball at the goal line by Adonai Mitchell, and three wins by 21+ points versus lesser opponents. Daniel Jones has completed throws at a 71.7% clip in Shane Steichen’s offense, so Sunday will be a great battle versus a Chargers defense that has been among the stingiest in the NFL by allowing 60.4% of passes to be completed against them while surrendering a 5:6 touchdown-interception ratio. The run defense for Los Angeles is another story, and current rusher leader Jonathan Taylor might destroy them after Bill Croskey-Merritt and De’Von Achane both went for 150 total yards and two rushing touchdowns on LA in back-to-back weeks. Again, I don’t believe Indy is a fluke at all, and this is a game where the pass rush could step up to impact Justin Herbert behind a shaky offensive line—I’d keep an eye on Laiatu Latu on the edge.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
GB (3-1-1) @ ARI (2-4)
Sunday, October 19 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
Green Bay would have liked to get more from their pass rush last week as they only sacked Joe Flacco once despite the veteran quarterback having less than a week as a member of the Bengals, and the “energy” on defense doesn’t feel like it’s at the level it was to begin the season. Still, the group might have been a bit sluggish coming out of the bye, and the Week 4 tie was an outstanding performance by Dak Prescott to get the ball out of his hands effectively; on the season, Rashan Gary still has 4.5 sacks, and Micah Parsons should have a takeover type of game soon. Arizona will be another opponent with a passer who can get the ball out of his hands quickly with Jacoby Brissett set to draw another start in place of Kyler Murray (foot), and the Packers need to have an answer for Trey McBride—especially with how tight ends have hurt them this season. I’d put Green Bay on definite upset alert, and Jordan Love needs to take what Jonathan Gannon’s defense gives him rather than trying to test coverage down the field.
Winner: Green Bay Packers
WAS (3-3) @ DAL (2-3-1)
Sunday, October 19 | 4:25 PM ET | FOX
The NFC East appears wide open with Philadelphia struggling, so Commanders-Cowboys is a massive matchup—and the old rivals will meet again on Christmas Day for what should be an even bigger game. It appears the reinforcements for Dallas will be there in Round 1 as CeeDee Lamb (ankle), KaVontae Turpin (foot), and Tyler Booker (ankle) return, and it’s scary to think how dangerous the offense will be with Lamb and a dominant George Pickens together after a few weeks of Pickens building chemistry with Dak Prescott. Focusing on Lamb, the last time he faced Washington with Prescott under center resulted in 13 receptions (on 13 targets) for 98 yards and two touchdowns, and the Commanders having some vulnerability between the numbers could lead to fireworks. On the other side of the ball, Bill Croskey-Merritt and Deebo Samuel Sr. will be tough tackles for the Cowboys if they don’t clean things up, but Jayden Daniels struggled in both matchups last season—and Prescott has gone 11-2 with a 27:5 touchdown-interception ratio versus Washington in his career.
Winner: Dallas Cowboys
ATL (3-2) @ SF (4-2)
Sunday, October 19 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
The 49ers are another NFC contender tracking to get key offensive players back this weekend, as Brock Purdy (toe), Ricky Pearsall (knee), and George Kittle (hamstring) should all be on the field for a matchup versus a confident Atlanta team that just dominated Buffalo on Monday night. Mac Jones going 3-1 should have earned him a starting role for 2026 (though it’d need to be via trade), but Purdy has been a top triggerman for years and should be lights out with close to his full complement of weapons on the field. Defensively, the Niners losing superstar captain Fred Warner (ankle) on top of already being without Nick Bosa (knee) is as bad as it gets for a unit, but they’ll still have the mentality to stop the run—which Buffalo frankly didn’t as Bijan Robinson had a career game a few days ago. He saw limited snaps in his season debut, but I’m anticipating second-year safety Malik Mustapha to potentially fill the leadership void left by Warner the rest of the year.
Winner: San Francisco 49ers
TB (5-1) @ DET (4-2)
Monday, October 20 | 7:00 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
The Buccaneers (mostly on offense) and Lions (mostly on defense) are unfortunately both hampered by injuries heading into an exciting Monday Night Football showdown—but that doesn’t take away from the importance of the matchup. Detroit finds motivation in every possible way under Dan Campbell, and the highly suspect reversal on what should have been a memorable Jared Goff touchdown catch (and the second week in a row with a touchdown pass by David Montgomery) will allow him to play the us-against-the-world card even heavier moving forward. Two years ago, the Lions were able to get the better of the Bucs in both matchups (including a 31-23 playoff win), but Tampa Bay got their revenge early last season in a game where Detroit was far too pass-happy (55 attempts); that hasn’t been the case this year with strong balance since the opener, and Campbell wanting more of a backfield split with Montgomery handling increased work could lead to a fresher Jahmyr Gibbs—and the final form for an offense that leads the NFL in points per game (32.8) over the past two seasons.
Winner: Detroit Lions
HOU (2-3) @ SEA (4-2)
Monday, October 20 | 10:00 PM ET | ESPN
There will be no shortage of offensive talent in the second MNF matchup with Nico Collins leading a more complete receiving corps for Houston and Jaxon Smith-Njigba turning into an absolute superstar for Seattle—but Texans-Seahawks will likely be more of a slugfest between two of the top seven scoring defenses in the league. Houston currently leads the NFL in points per game allowed (12.2) and will have had an extra week to prepare for a rolling Seattle offense, but this feels like a Kenneth Walker III game to me (despite the stout opponent), so it’s imperative that the late start doesn’t lead to a missed assignment and/or tackle for the Texans if they aren’t quite fully focused. Interestingly, the “spooky” kickoff time (with the game getting done past midnight on the east coast) comes almost exactly six years to the day of Sam Darnold “seeing ghosts” game (October 21, 2019), so I like him to completely make that story a thing of the past with another win on Monday night.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks